WI Russia spent over half its naval budget in 1906-1914 on the Army instead?

If Russia spent more on army and less on navy

  • It would win WWI, stop revolution

    Votes: 17 38.6%
  • It would still fall to revolution and defeat

    Votes: 27 61.4%

  • Total voters
    44
If the Germans had acted decisively (i.e. had a naval war plan), these Germans could have occupied these islands in the first days of the war. And these islands would give the Germans a military advantage.

If the Russians don't have capital ships, then it is arguably likelier that the Germans would try such an attack: in that case, they would not need to send such big forces to the northern Baltic Sea as they would have needed IOTL to overcome the forces the Russians could have theoretically sent to intercept them before/at the Ålands. The defender having no capital ships makes capturing Åland a much easier and cheaper proposition (and this was, in fact, a main reason for the Finnish Navy in the 1920s to construct the OTL armored coastal ships).

If we take this logic further, assuming that the Russian naval planners would have thought of this at the time, then building a purely defensive fleet without capital ships, one that will not venture outside the Gulf of Finland during a war, makes it more important to try to fortify Åland and remilitarize the islands before a war against Germany breaks out as the islands' defence in that case rests on coastal artillery (and emplaced field artillery and dug-in infantry, against enemy landings) and minelayers, torpedo boats and submarines operating out of Åland and the Turku area.
 
The plan @Dorknought describes shows what happens when you drink too much vodka on a regular basis.
Absolutely! The financial receipts of the state monopoly of spirits contributed 28% of the state budget, the single largest source of revenue. Drink up!

Russian 1913 GDP shows a slightly bigger economy than GB and Germany and half that of the US. Arms races don't cause wars, economic recovery does and it was Russian recovery in the 1910-14 period from 1904-06 that alarmed the Germans. Rearmament was paid for partly by loans but more by increased indirect taxation. In trade terms, Russia imported and exported £200m per year, her largest trading partner was Germany at about 40% but Russia was only 10% of German trade.

The leading capital export countries were heavily invested in Russia. GB and Germany for £100m each and France at £417m, close to a 3rd of all French foreign investment but less than 1% for GB. The Agricultural sector accounted for 70% of the economy, double that of France or Germany and 7 times that of GB so there is significant potential and scope to industrialise. Even the service sector was tiny, a 10th of GB's and a 5th of the German and French. Another aspect to the rearmament efforts was that the 1904 German-Russian Commercial Treaty that gave generous access to Russian Agriculture and Industrial sectors was due to run until 1918. Russia had been strong-armed into signing in 1906 due to Germany exploiting Russia's weakness during the Russo-Japanese War where Russia was unable to redeploy units from Europe to Asia.

For the Russian Navy in it's June 1912 'Enhanced Programme', an extensive expansion was proposed and by 1914 the Russian ship construction budget was second only to that of the Royal Navy. Russia planned it's naval forces in 'Brigades'. Each Brigade was 8 battleships and 4 battle cruisers, 9 light cruisers and 36 destroyers. 3 Brigades (2 in the Pacific, 1 European) were envisaged for 24 BB and 12 BC by 1930. Only the Baltic Brigade was funded but the overall plan had been approved. The Borodinos were 45.5m r each (£4.55m 1914 price) and the Chesma trials forced changes that added £700k to each ship. However they benefited from the hull designs of a talented designer who's hull form, tested by Bremmerhaven, demonstrated a 10% saving in installed power. This was later realised with the design of the French liner Normandie. While observers had noted chaos and inefficiencies in Russian yards, a year later, the same observers noted enormous improvements.

The cost of the war was £4,635m or 182% of pre-war GDP. Based on pre-war defence spending (3.9% of GDP), this was about 46 years worth of spending crunched into 3 years. Russian economy took until 1927 to regain it's 1913 level of GDP. The building schedule for the Enhanced Programme matches the US rate of 2 per year but it is also on par with the likes of Japan and Italy.

The war took an enormous bite out of Russian potential.
 
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