WI: Russia sends troops to the Sinai after the Downing of Flight 9268 on 31/10/2015?

Pesigalam

Banned
As the title say.

Assuming here that Sisi gives Putin the green light to deal with the Islamists of the Sinai.

How does the world react? How do terrorists react? What do Egypt's neighbours do?
 
If Russia wanted to engage in yet another open-ended military conflict, this time in Egypt, I suspect that the West would accept this. Let Russia overextend itself, and see what happens.
 

trurle

Banned
The opposition inside the Russian military to any operation on Egyptian soil would be severe. It is easy to say whom to fight, but Russians will have no significant local group to support them since the revolution of 2011.
As about reaction of other states, the rfmcdonald is generally correct. The idea of Russia participating in Egyptian conflict is so obviously silly what any enemy/rival of Russia will rejoice.
 
For all of its problems, Egypt has the sort of functioning state that Russia lacks. I'm not sure what Russia could contribute, honestly.
 

Pesigalam

Banned
Have fun Russia! Its your mess now!
If Russia wanted to engage in yet another open-ended military conflict, this time in Egypt, I suspect that the West would accept this. Let Russia overextend itself, and see what happens.
As about reaction of other states, the rfmcdonald is generally correct. The idea of Russia participating in Egyptian conflict is so obviously silly what any enemy/rival of Russia will rejoice.
Wow, I expected more from AH.com then this. You know you're doing something wrong when you're just regurgitating Ukrainian prop-... er, sorry, Ukrainian media articles on Russia's involvement in the M.E. and replacing the word 'Syria' with 'Egypt'.
The opposition inside the Russian military to any operation on Egyptian soil would be severe.
Proof?
It is easy to say whom to fight, but Russians will have no significant local group to support them since the revolution of 2011.
Have you been living under a rock or something?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/08/putin-sisi-pledge-boost-russia-egypt-ties-150826201113441.html

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/vie...tore-for-Egypt-Russia-relations-in-2016-.html
For all of its problems, Egypt has the sort of functioning state that Russia lacks.
:rolleyes:
 

trurle

Banned
Wow, I expected more from AH.com then this. You know you're doing something wrong when you're just regurgitating Ukrainian prop-... er, sorry, Ukrainian media articles on Russia's involvement in the M.E. and replacing the word 'Syria' with 'Egypt'.
Proof?
Have you been living under a rock or something?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/08/putin-sisi-pledge-boost-russia-egypt-ties-150826201113441.html

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/vie...tore-for-Egypt-Russia-relations-in-2016-.html
:rolleyes:
No real proof. Just personal experience. During last period of my service in Russian military (back in 2006) i actually discussed with several officers the questions like "my reaction if i would be sent to country X". The common opinion about Egyptian military mission was "too risky because cannot rely on locals military". Also, i was a part of Russian military-technical mission to Egypt in 2006 (helping to repair some Egyptian radars). Well, on top political level, the Russian technicians were welcome. On the ground level, the Egyptians (or at least Egyptian Arabs - did not have a much contact with other ethnic groups) were unenthusiastic to say the best. Cooperated because they were ordered to do so.
 
Wow, I expected more from AH.com then this. You know you're doing something wrong when you're just regurgitating Ukrainian prop-... er, sorry, Ukrainian media articles on Russia's involvement in the M.E. and replacing the word 'Syria' with 'Egypt'.

Russia engaging in multiple open-ended military engagements outside of its frontiers, particularly outside of the former Soviet Union, is something that Western governments can accept. Let Russia take the brunt for the time being.
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
This could cause a political crisis in Israel as the Liebermanite wing of the Israeli Right might cheer such an action while the military establishment and Netanyahu himself would be very suspicious of Russian motive for moving troops into the Sinai, and at the same time, the displacement of the Islamists might create a huge sucking effect towards Gaza for the Islamists, as Egyptian border control in the region is not nearly as vigorous as Israel would prefer. Israeli cooperation in such an operation may be possible but likely not anything outside of intel support, as anything more would be politically impossible for all actors involved.

As for Russia, I wonder how they would logistically support such an operation. Their power projection capabilities are something I am very suspicious of. The base at Tartus helps, sure, but what kind of force could Russia actually send? Egyptian support for the operation might be dicey, as well, as the army hates even acknowledging the problem in the Sinai, and Sisi's position is not completely secure.
 

Pesigalam

Banned
Also, i was a part of Russian military-technical mission to Egypt in 2006 (helping to repair some Egyptian radars). Well, on top political level, the Russian technicians were welcome. On the ground level, the Egyptians (or at least Egyptian Arabs - did not have a much contact with other ethnic groups) were unenthusiastic to say the best. Cooperated because they were ordered to do so.
Interesting. Most Egyptians I have spoken to have had very favorable views of Russia. The vast majority of them were Copts so maybe that had something to do with it.
 
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