WI: Russia replaces America at Versailles

Obviously the butterfly effects of Russia not falling to revolution are enormous but let’s just ignore that for now. The premise is that Russia has either managed to hold off the Central Powers or avoid being pushed back too far and America never enters the war on either side. The Western front ends very similiar to OTL with a very limited to no occupation of Germany but the same OTL German economic and military collapse. So what are the Russian demands at Versailles assuming they couldn’t actually break the CP’s lines and how does this affect Britain and France’s demands?

(Really hope I’m doing this correctly and btw I’m very open to suggestions, cheers!)
 

Vuu

Banned
I think you'd need a slightly earlier PoD, but that would probably push it into 19th century to do so. The biggest implication is that this heavily improved Russia is basically invulnerable. Later though, expect a big shift in Europe to become more hostile to Russia, kinda like they were to the USSR. The Nazis (they'd probably take power anyway in a ruined Germany) would either fail harder than they did OTL (completely annihilated by the Russians) or be semi-successful (manage to get the rest of europe on their side like they wanted, then it's all up in the air)

Now, option 2 could be more interesting. Germany + pretty much all of Europe + Japan vs Russia + USA + their allies (Serbia/Yugoslavia, China? etc)
 
Sazonow thirteen points are rather good estimate. Even though they probably weren't formal policy, they reflected general trend of Russian wargoals at the time.
  1. The three allied powers have as their primary goal the destruction of German power and the German desire for military domination;
  2. Territorial modifications must be determined by the principle of nationality;
  3. Russia will annex the lower course of the Niemen River and the eastern portion of Galicia; it will also annex to the kingdom of Poland eastern Posen, southern Silesia, and the western portion of Galicia;
  4. France will regain Alsace-Lorraine, and, if it so desires, a portion of the Prussian Rhineland and of the Palatinate;
  5. Belgium will receive a significant territorial increase in the vicinity of Aix-la-Chapelle;
  6. Denmark will regain Schleswig-Holstein;
  7. The kingdom of Hanover will be restored;
  8. Austria will be divided into a tripartite monarchy, comprised of the empire of Austria, the kingdom of Bohemia, and the kingdom of Hungary; the Austrian empire will include only its hereditary provinces, the kingdom of Bohemia will be comprised of present-day Bohemia as well as Slovakia, and the Hungarian kingdom will have to reach an understanding with Romania concerning Transylvania;
  9. Serbia will annex Bosnia, Herzegovina, Dalmatia, and the northern portion of Albania;
  10. Bulgaria will receive from Serbia territorial compensation in Macedonia;
  11. Greece will annex the southern portion of Albania, with the exception of Valona, which will fall to Italy;
  12. Britain, France, and Japan will divide the German colonies; and
  13. Germany and Austria will pay war reparations [une contribution de guerre].
 
Sazonow thirteen points are rather good estimate. Even though they probably weren't formal policy, they reflected general trend of Russian wargoals at the time.

A restored Hanover? France getting the Rhineland and the Palatinate if it desires? Belgium growing towards Aachen? Wow, that's one harsh peace for Germany.
 
"Restored Hannover" means it's detached from Prussia, not from Germany. It's still part of German state, just no longer ruled by house Hohenzollern.
 
I wonder what that state would look like when the dust settled?

Well, for starters Denmark and Belgium will probably refuse more than their historical gains.
I don't think France will stomach anything more either, they had no will to hold even onto Saarland, so any notions of annexing everything up to Rhine would be delusions. Saarland would be maximum extent of additional gains.
In east it's little murkier, but still pretty predictable. I think OTL Polish-German borders, but with following differences:
- no corridor or free city of Danzig. Germany keeps those.
- Germans they lose Masuria and Upper Silesia up to (but excluding) Oppeln to Poland.
- Russians annex eastmost part of Eastern Prussia, Including Memel and Tilsit.
Border between Russia proper and Poland with increased autonomy would be roughly the 1945-1990 OTL Polish-USSR border.
 
I was referring to a separated Hanover
It'd be ruled by Ernest Augustus Duke of Brunswick, legitimate heir to kingdom of Hannover.
It was precisely because he was claimant to Hannover that delayed his ascension to Duchy of Brunswick after extinction of main branch of house Brunswick-Bevern, his relatives. He and his father, duke Cumberland, had to pinky swear they renounce their claims to Hannover before Ernest was allowed to ascend to Brunswick. Less than year later WWI broke out, and four years later Ernest was deposed.
 
In east it's little murkier, but still pretty predictable. I think OTL Polish-German borders, but with following differences:
- no corridor or free city of Danzig. Germany keeps those.
- Germans they lose Masuria and Upper Silesia up to (but excluding) Oppeln to Poland.
- Russians annex eastmost part of Eastern Prussia, Including Memel and Tilsit.
Border between Russia proper and Poland with increased autonomy would be roughly the 1945-1990 OTL Polish-USSR border.

I'm not so sure if Poland would have received that autonomy; Poles more or less united in one state, with Polish language back in schools, Polish universities, Polish officials, perhaps even local parliament (similar to the Sejm of Galicia) - that would be wise and lay ground for some reconciliation between Russians and the Poles. But would autocratic tsar Nicholas II really agree to that?

And far from Polish backyard: What about the Ottoman Empire? Would Russia be interested in taking Armenia (Armienians would be actually happy with that after what they suffered from the Turks), possibly with some autonomy?
And would Russia want to take Constantinople? And if so, would western allies agree to that? IMO somewhat doubtful, Britain would not want Russia too strong.
 
Obviously the butterfly effects of Russia not falling to revolution are enormous but let’s just ignore that for now. The premise is that Russia has either managed to hold off the Central Powers or avoid being pushed back too far and America never enters the war on either side. The Western front ends very similiar to OTL with a very limited to no occupation of Germany but the same OTL German economic and military collapse. So what are the Russian demands at Versailles assuming they couldn’t actually break the CP’s lines and how does this affect Britain and France’s demands?

(Really hope I’m doing this correctly and btw I’m very open to suggestions, cheers!)

How about the RN and French Navies force the Dardanelles as a POD - perhaps Keyes gets the mine sweeping squadrons organised with RN crews earlier or manages to convince Admiral John De Robeck to continue the attempt beyond the 18th March 1915 effort which saw the loss of several obsolete battleships (which in the words of Keyes were going to be scrapped anyway despite a war being on!).

So the Straights are forced, the Ottoman leaderships panics and flees Constantinople for the Asian side of Turkey with their Harems and as much loot as their cars can carry (which they were ready to do convinced that the RN was going to try again) and the Entente places a puppet government in charge of the Ottoman Empire.

The most important supply route to Imperial Russia is restored and the subsequent events in the Balkans changes from that experienced in OTL - also no land war with the Ottoman Empire frees up a staggering number of Entente troops (15 divisions in total and 300,000+ casualties) that were otherwise tied down in the OTL land campaign - I feel that they could have been put to better use on the Western Front. Also there were in total over 3 million Entente Soldiers ultimately involved in the Middle east with over a million casualties - that might have made a difference on the Western Front as well!

Italy immediately declares for the Entente and goes to war with the A-H Empire in March 1915 and does not wait till May 1915 opening up that front 2 months earlier.

With the main supply route Russia can exchange Wheat for bullets and Shells and with the Ottomans knocked out of the war freeing up several Million Entente soldiers that would otherwise be used in that theatre in OTL

As for Russian terms???

Well, for starters Denmark and Belgium will probably refuse more than their historical gains.
I don't think France will stomach anything more either, they had no will to hold even onto Saarland, so any notions of annexing everything up to Rhine would be delusions. Saarland would be maximum extent of additional gains.
In east it's little murkier, but still pretty predictable. I think OTL Polish-German borders, but with following differences:
- no corridor or free city of Danzig. Germany keeps those.
- Germans they lose Masuria and Upper Silesia up to (but excluding) Oppeln to Poland.
- Russians annex eastmost part of Eastern Prussia, Including Memel and Tilsit.
Border between Russia proper and Poland with increased autonomy would be roughly the 1945-1990 OTL Polish-USSR border.

Seems reasonable!
 
I'm not so sure if Poland would have received that autonomy; Poles more or less united in one state, with Polish language back in schools, Polish universities, Polish officials, perhaps even local parliament (similar to the Sejm of Galicia) - that would be wise and lay ground for some reconciliation between Russians and the Poles. But would autocratic tsar Nicholas II really agree to that?

And far from Polish backyard: What about the Ottoman Empire? Would Russia be interested in taking Armenia (Armienians would be actually happy with that after what they suffered from the Turks), possibly with some autonomy?
And would Russia want to take Constantinople? And if so, would western allies agree to that? IMO somewhat doubtful, Britain would not want Russia too strong.

About the Ottomans...

Britain should not be trusted with regards to promises. They betrayed three parties of which one only partly (France did not gain oilrich Mosul). I see a chance Russia gets Eastern Anatolia and possible a joint rule over the old Capital. Russia might gain Eastern Thrace to shut them up... maybe...

Or maybe Britain really is honest and gives Russia whatever promised. But honestly, when did the British do that? We won't know...

Side effect: large scale genocide of Muslims
 

kernals12

Banned
One paradox: If Russia is strong enough to win the war, it could deter Germany from giving a blank cheque to Austria thereby preventing the war in the first place.
 
"Restored Hannover" means it's detached from Prussia, not from Germany. It's still part of German state, just no longer ruled by house Hohenzollern.

So, this wouldn't be applicable if the German Revolution of 1918 still happens, I take it?
 
About the Ottomans...

Britain should not be trusted with regards to promises. They betrayed three parties of which one only partly (France did not gain oilrich Mosul). I see a chance Russia gets Eastern Anatolia and possible a joint rule over the old Capital. Russia might gain Eastern Thrace to shut them up... maybe...

Or maybe Britain really is honest and gives Russia whatever promised. But honestly, when did the British do that? We won't know...

Side effect: large scale genocide of Muslims

Depends on the situation on the ground, perhaps. If the Russians already have troops in Eastern Thrace, then there wouldn't be much the British could do to prevent them taking the rest of what they were promised short of war. And selling their war-weary public on a new war specifically to deprive their own ally of what the government had promised them...oof, hard sell.
 
So, this wouldn't be applicable if the German Revolution of 1918 still happens, I take it?
OTL influence of US being in war, and October Revolution shouldn't be ignored when contemplating German Revolution happening.
Wilson would not accept armistice before Germans were "self-governing". Interestingly, Poland almost remained monarchy in 1918 (one of members of regency council would become king), but fear of rabidly republican Wilson punishing Poland in subsequent peace treaties made Poles abandon the idea. (Wilson ruins everything)

If OTL Germans fearing that keeping Kaiser might make US extra harsh on Germany, then TTL they'd fear that abolishing him would make Russians extra harsh on republican Germany.

OTL when Scheidemann declared republic, Ebert was furious but did nothing. TTL he would kick him out of government, or even arrest him, because "zeitgeist" would be blowing in different direction.
Nevermind that without successful communist revolution abroad, Scheidemann might even not consider declaring republic.
 

Kaze

Banned
Which Russia?
At the time of Versailles there was more than one. The first one was lead by the Whites - they fought and lost the civil war. If at Versailles, they would only wish the victorious powers to intervene in their civil war.
The second one was led by the Reds. Now this could and would be more interesting - if the Red were accepted at Versailles, it might delay the cold war.
Now for territories - I will agree with all of the above.
 
Which Russia?
At the time of Versailles there was more than one. The first one was lead by the Whites - they fought and lost the civil war. If at Versailles, they would only wish the victorious powers to intervene in their civil war.
The second one was led by the Reds. Now this could and would be more interesting - if the Red were accepted at Versailles, it might delay the cold war.
Now for territories - I will agree with all of the above.

The idea is that Russia never falls to revolution so presumably Imperial Russia has the only delegation though I would love to see a TL in which the reds receive recognition at Versailles.
 
Depends on whether or not Turkey is on the losing side.
A Russian victory at Tannenberg could dissuade the Turks from joining the CP, besides being, IMO, the fastest way to end the war with an Entente victory. With no legitimate opportunity to attack Turkey, Russia could be given Danzig in the peace negotiations.
After 1914, Nicholas is going to lobby strongly for Constantinople, which reduces the chance of a Russian Danzig.
 
Perhaps the easiest way to get a late Russian victory without the US involved or Russia breaking the CP would be to have Russia manage its war economy and transportation system better, but use the extra resources primarily to feed their people and reduce the shortages in 1916-17. Then have Russia KO the Ottomans in 1917 for a morale boost that also bolsters their trade/supply/distribution issues.
 
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