WI Russia joined NATO?

Would America ever allow Russia to join NATO?

  • Never. "Opposing Russia" is the whole point!

    Votes: 79 52.7%
  • Of course. NATO must expand!

    Votes: 44 29.3%
  • Polly mcPoll face

    Votes: 40 26.7%

  • Total voters
    150

Big Smoke

Banned
How did anybody isolate them ?

How ?

Yes, Russia's NATO bogeyman persists.

Putin, or rather, the nationalism associated with him, rose in response to NATO aggression and absurd, under-handed diplomacy. During Perestroika, Gorbachev agreed to take Soviet troops out of Eastern Europe (this is really a miracle) in exchange for the promise that the newly liberated nations would remain neutral and would not have American or NATO troops within their border. This promise was ignored once Clinton came to power, and NATO expanded in two phases (first Poland, Hungary, etc., then the Baltics) to the point that today there are American warplanes in Estonia like five minutes flight from Russia's second largest city. While, of course, the nationalism and authoritarianism of Putin is bad, we must understand that these sentiments do not arise out of nowhere and that it is no wonder when a country is trampled over like Russia was in the 90s there will be a backlash.
 
Im not an expert in the question but my guess would be that it could potentially question american leadership of NATO. Right now NATO is USA and CO. America being the stronger part. With Russia in this might not be the case. Not necesserily something USA would want.

I think most smaller NATO nations would also feel at least a bit apprehensive about being members of a mutual defence organization where Russia has any major say.

Putin, or rather, the nationalism associated with him, rose in response to NATO aggression and absurd, under-handed diplomacy.

Building voluntary alliances with sovereign nations is hardly "aggression". Why exactly would Russia have any right to decide about who nations like Poland or Lithuania ally themselves with?

During Perestroika, Gorbachev agreed to take Soviet troops out of Eastern Europe (this is really a miracle) in exchange for the promise that the newly liberated nations would remain neutral and would not have American or NATO troops within their border. This promise was ignored once Clinton came to power, and NATO expanded in two phases (first Poland, Hungary, etc., then the Baltics) to the point that today there are American warplanes in Estonia like five minutes flight from Russia's second largest city. While, of course, the nationalism and authoritarianism of Putin is bad, we must understand that these sentiments do not arise out of nowhere and that it is no wonder when a country is trampled over like Russia was in the 90s there will be a backlash.

The verbal promises made in private by individual American and West German politicians to Gorbachev during the discussions about German reunification had no validity after the USSR did not exist anymore and neither those Western administrations nor Gorbachev were in power anymore. It would be different if the Soviet and Western governments created an actual binding agreement, signed and ratified, about NATO non-enlargement in circa 1990. But this of course never happened.

The number of NATO troops and units there are in the Baltic states is very small, and in fact negligible in comparison to what assets Russia has even in its Western Military District in peace time. Before the crisis in Ukraine flared up, due to Russian actions, there were even less NATO units in the area. The NATO units in the Baltics are in no way a realistic threat to Russia, they are strictly a "tripwire" force. (There are actually no American airplanes in Estonia, AFAIK, as the Baltic Air Policing system is rotational by nature. Since last August it is Germany's turn to have four (4) fighters to be based in Ämäri, while in January a similar Polish fighter unit arrived to Šiauliai in Lithuania.)
 
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longsword14

Banned
that it is no wonder when a country is trampled over like Russia was in the 90s
x'D
there are American warplanes in Estonia like five minutes flight from Russia's second largest city
And Russian warplanes are also 5 minutes away from Estonia's largest city.
During Perestroika, Gorbachev agreed to take Soviet troops out of Eastern Europe (this is really a miracle) in exchange for the promise that the newly liberated nations would remain neutral and would not have American or NATO troops within their border.
Which treaty states that ?
 
Sorry but it is my opinion (evidently not yours) that only they becaming client States (and in the case of the Baltic Countries not even that) would satisfy Putin. And if Russia would become an NATO country then any conflict between them and say Poland (or Hungary, the Chezks etc) would be an conflict between members and therefore not one where the treaty applied.
Putin doesn't rise to any real power till 1999. If offered in 1991 that's 8 years where instead of friction there is friendship along with potential better economic outcomes such that Putin never takes power.
 
I can't see that NATO having a common border with China is a sound commitment.

Russia should be me more worried if the Eastern European nations were refused membership by NATO and formed their own mutual alliance. That is far more likely to be triggered by Russian agression than OTL NATO.
 
I think most smaller NATO nations would also feel at least a bit apprehensive about being members of a mutual defence organization where Russia has any major say.



Building voluntary alliances with sovereign nations is hardly "aggression". Why exactly would Russia have any right to decide about who nations like Poland or Lithuania ally themselves with?



The verbal promises made in private by individual American and West German politicians to Gorbachev during the discussions about German reunification had no validity after the USSR did not exist anymore and neither those Western administrations nor Gorbachev were in power anymore. It would be different if the Soviet and Western governments created an actual binding agreement, signed and ratified, about NATO non-enlargement in circa 1990. But this of course never happened.

The number of NATO troops and units there are in the Baltic states is very small, and in fact negligible in comparison to what assets Russia has even in its Western Military District in peace time. Before the crisis in Ukraine flared up, due to Russian actions, there were even less NATO units in the area. The NATO units in the Baltics are in no way a realistic threat to Russia, they are strictly a "tripwire" force. (There are actually no American airplanes in Estonia, AFAIK, as the Baltic Air Policing system is rotational by nature. Since last August it is Germany's turn to have four (4) fighters to be based in Ämäri, while in January a similar Polish fighter unit arrived to Šiauliai in Lithuania.)

1. The smaller new members of Nato being apprehensive makes no real sense since Nato still protects them from Russian military incursion. A member of Nato attacking another member doesn't void the treaty just makes the aggressor nation the target of the alliance. The soft power the Russians may use is no different the various economic battles that occur between the US and the EU. Not against the rules of Nato. Nato essentially guarantees the borders, not the economy or even the political structure as long as it is not changed by force.

2.The Russians don't have the right to stop the expansion of Nato but at the same time it is reasonable to see an Organization formed to oppose you expanding to your borders thus taking away the buffer between you as being aggressive.

3. While no treaty on paper the Russians won't care, they will see it as a betrayal of an agreement made.

4. Number of units being small does make it a smaller provocation but still a provocation. Equivalent to the US feelings on Russian units in Cuba or Venezuela.
 
4. Number of units being small does make it a smaller provocation but still a provocation. Equivalent to the US feelings on Russian units in Cuba or Venezuela.

pp2-atomic-age-lesson-7-638.jpg
 

longsword14

Banned
A member of Nato attacking another member doesn't void the treaty just makes the aggressor nation the target of the alliance.
Cyprus.
The Russians don't have the right to stop the expansion of Nato but at the same time it is reasonable to see an Organization formed to oppose you expanding to your borders thus taking away the buffer between you as being aggressive.
Each border has two sides. Both of those two sides do not belong to Russia.
While no treaty on paper the Russians won't care, they will see it as a betrayal of an agreement made.
So we should care about a non-existent treaty, yet ignore actual issues of sovereign nations ?
Equivalent to the US feelings on Russian units in Cuba or Venezuela.
What does Estonia's or Latvia's border have to do with Cuba ? If people are going to talk about morality points they should at least talk about the same topic.
 
The NATO-Russia joint exercises at Russian soil show how Putin and his posse initially felt that working business relations with West would benefit them more.
b020925w.jpg
https://www.nato.int/eadrcc/bogorodsk/index.htm
https://www.stripes.com/news/nato-russia-begin-terror-reaction-exercise-1.21227
https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2007/09-september/e0903a.html
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_21428.htm?selectedLocale=en
https://www.nato.int/docu/comm/2007/0705-chod/fact-sheet-nato-russia.pdf
https://www.nato.int/docu/comm/2008/0804-bucharest/080403-nrc-factsheet-e.pdf

Basically Nato and Russia had cool, but professional and cooperative relationship before 2008. After Georgia things cooled down a lot, until 2014 kicked in. Why?

Because GWB and his neocons told Putin to drop regional aspirations and turn his country to "the Brazil of the North" after Putin had expected tribute and prestige from helping the US to get to Afghanistan after 2001?

Because Putin's vision of restoring Russian greatness while getting himself and his buddies from St. Petersburg a lot of cash at the expense of the average Ivan Ivanovich was ultimately incompatible with the visions of Brussels and Washington?

Because Putin just waited to complete the Russian rearmament spree before going after Georgia and Ukraine at the first opportunity?

Because Putin and his cronies were genuinely scared of the idea of a strong opposition to their rule, and saw Orange revolutions at the former Soviet backyard through silovik paranoia as totally Western-orchestrated CIA coups?

Because of the fact that Nato needed a continued reason to exist after ISAF began to turn into a failed war, and Putin and the boys needed a foreign bookeyman to divert the Russian public away from their own corrupt rule even more?

*add your own nutty conspiracy theory, bonus points from mentioning Dugin and reptilians
 
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1. The smaller new members of Nato being apprehensive makes no real sense since Nato still protects them from Russian military incursion. A member of Nato attacking another member doesn't void the treaty just makes the aggressor nation the target of the alliance. The soft power the Russians may use is no different the various economic battles that occur between the US and the EU. Not against the rules of Nato. Nato essentially guarantees the borders, not the economy or even the political structure as long as it is not changed by force.

I also mean the established smaller members of NATO. Adding a new major member to the organization, one with a high self-valuation of its importance (that is, a big national ego) as well as a huge nuclear stockpile would certainly change the internal dynamics of NATO in a significant way. At the very least the comparative weight of all established members would change, and not for the better. And then, if the organization would later on become an arena of US-Russian rivalry, which would not be out of the question at all, that would necessarily destabilize it and hurt its ability to function.

Newly independent, and/or free from the Soviet yoke, Russia's smaller neighbours would want to find support with which to withstand Russia's potential future attempts to use influence towards them. On balance, Russia being a member in NATO would dilute the political capital/support they get from NATO membership, which would reflect on their international position and domestic politics. Comparative to the OTL, their position would be more precarious.

2.The Russians don't have the right to stop the expansion of Nato but at the same time it is reasonable to see an Organization formed to oppose you expanding to your borders thus taking away the buffer between you as being aggressive.

NATO was not founded to oppose Russia. It was founded as a mutual defence organization. Note the difference: the goal of NATO was not to attack the USSR but to defend its members from a potential foreign attack. Even today, NATO is not a threat to Russia, that is the Russian Federation as an independent nation within its sovereign territory, territorial sea and airspace. What it is, is a counter against Russia's ability to throw its weight around outside its borders. NATO's expansion in the area made "grey" by the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact can only be called "aggressive" if one argues that Russia has the intrinsic right to dominate its "near abroad". Remember that so far NATO has not moved such troops into the area of these new member states that would be a realistic threat to Russia itself, and seems unlikely to do this in the foreseeable future.

3. While no treaty on paper the Russians won't care, they will see it as a betrayal of an agreement made.

The "agreement" you are referring to was not a binding agreement between nations. The USSR, in its time, made several binding agreements it broke later, sometimes rather aggressively (say, the post-WWI peace treaties with Finland and the Baltic states, and the non-aggression pacts with the same), and post-1991 Russia has also broken binding agreements itself (the 1994 Budapest Memorandum being a notable example), so it is IMO kind of ironic that people should latch on to a verbal promise made in private by officials from two NATO states to a former leader of a defunct state called the Soviet Union as something of major importance, and see those nations breaking that promise (or, rather, deciding that it is not relevant anymore after the USSR ceased to exist as a nation) later, under a different leadership, as a great historical injustice.

4. Number of units being small does make it a smaller provocation but still a provocation. Equivalent to the US feelings on Russian units in Cuba or Venezuela.

The fact that there is no real military threat towards Russia by such small NATO units that there is in these nations does rather undermine Moscow's arguments about NATO's expansion being a threat against Russia. Again, your argument seems to be based on the tacit assumption that Russia has the right to control the nations that are located next to its borders, as if those nations did not have the same sovereign rights as Russia has.

The fact is, though, that historical precedent or international law gives a nation absolutely no immutable rights in terms of controlling other nations or having a "sphere of influence". You only have the sphere you can hold on to and the allies you can convince, one way or the other, to be your allies. Understanding this state of affairs is, indeed, why Russia's smaller neighbours literally ran to NATO as soon as it was possible. They have no illusions about fair play in the international arena of geopolitics, as some might say Russia seems to have, by the gripes the Russians have about NATO's easterly expansion since the 1990s.
 
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Putin, or rather, the nationalism associated with him, rose in response to NATO aggression and absurd, under-handed diplomacy. During Perestroika, Gorbachev agreed to take Soviet troops out of Eastern Europe (this is really a miracle) in exchange for the promise that the newly liberated nations would remain neutral and would not have American or NATO troops within their border. This promise was ignored once Clinton came to power, and NATO expanded in two phases (first Poland, Hungary, etc., then the Baltics) to the point that today there are American warplanes in Estonia like five minutes flight from Russia's second largest city. While, of course, the nationalism and authoritarianism of Putin is bad, we must understand that these sentiments do not arise out of nowhere and that it is no wonder when a country is trampled over like Russia was in the 90s there will be a backlash.
Russia invaded my country for nothing. Don't even speak about NATO guilt, please.
 
Because GWB and his neocons told Putin to drop regional aspirations and turn his country to "the Brazil of the North" after Putin had expected tribute and prestige from helping the US to get to Afghanistan after 2001?
GWB did nothing wrong here. Russia of 1991-2008 was Germany of 1920-1938.
As much as I disagree with GWB at many points, its one of positions that I approve.
 
Despite every good argument put out against Russia ever joining NATO I think we could approach the question from a different point of angle - what would it take from a) Russia b) Key Western players and c) NATO d) External actors of creating conditions in which Russia would join NATO?

As for a) I would guess a somewhat smooth democratic transition in 1990's and 2000's, which could be a possibility, although a remote one.

b) For key Western players it would demand a need and will to integrate Russia fully into Western circle

c) for C it would necessarily mean transition of NATO from an Euro-Atlantic player to a global one

d) I would guess a China gone rogue after 1989 might be a chance to do it. Even though "Bear and the Dragon" was one of the worst techno-thrillers ever, it presented a scenario in which Russia and NATO would join forces. I would further add an economic development in which Russia perhaps in co-operation with 'Stans partially replaces China as a favoured outsourcing destination for industries.

Ultimately I think this scenario as a highly improbable one.
 
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Cyprus.

Each border has two sides. Both of those two sides do not belong to Russia.

So we should care about a non-existent treaty, yet ignore actual issues of sovereign nations ?

What does Estonia's or Latvia's border have to do with Cuba ? If people are going to talk about morality points they should at least talk about the same topic.
First I am not an apologist for Russia or particular fan.
Cyprus is a good example but as in everything there are more details such as the original Turkish reaction was to a coup that sought to change the status quo.
As for the border has 2 sides I don't disagree with you I am simply stating the Russian concerns which were recognized by the political powers that be when Russia pulled out of the eastern bloc states.
Since you speak of the issues of sovereign nations that would include Russia whose issue is one of trust and a mindset of no more invasions. Again was it necessary, no in fact they and the world at large would be in better shape if all nations could depend on no one attacking them such that no military forces are necessary. Unfortunately we don't live in that world.
As for the comparison between Cuba I was pointing out that the US opposed letting Russian forces deploy to Cuba saying it was to close to our border. This was even before the Cuban missile crisis that the US was objecting. This wasn't a morality point just a fact that we don't like it when the Russians put units close to us just like they don't like it when NATO puts units close to them. For that matter no nation wants military forces from another country in position to be a threat.
 
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I recall many years ago a article in the US Naval Institute Proceedings, written by a Russian Navy admiral. Basically he was begging the US to give the Russian Navy a role in NATO or US Navy exercises and operations. He argued that through regular contact and engagement it would be a step in offsetting the feeling of isolation and loss that was prevalent among Russian navy leadership. By implication this would be a step towards better engagement with Russia in general.

I'm of the 'lost opportunity' school. That in the 1990s the US, and Western Europe missed on a chance to deeply engage Russian leadership and population on a really effective level. Selling them more Levis trousers, or Swedish IKEA furniture was not remotely far enough in the right direction. Actual full Russian membership in NATO in then 1990s was likely out of the question, but far better engagement could have been accomplished. Unfortunately the US leadership then had few people with the vision & juice to push a better effort through.
 
While Russia should have stayed out of the Ukraine, so should have the United States and NATO.
TF you are saying?! US was unrelated to events of November 2013- February 2014. They did nothing except for Yanukovich condemnation, as did EU. And answer me, it was EU who took 11% of Ukraine? Or US?
There was no Western intervention in Ukrainian affairs during EuroMaidan. It was Russia, who supported Yanukovich, and then, after failure of his government took Crimea/Donbass, because they wanted Ukraine to stay their puppet. Period.
I'm abstaining from further debates to dontd derail thread. Have fun.
 

McPherson

Banned
I recall many years ago a article in the US Naval Institute Proceedings, written by a Russian Navy admiral. Basically he was begging the US to give the Russian Navy a role in NATO or US Navy exercises and operations. He argued that through regular contact and engagement it would be a step in offsetting the feeling of isolation and loss that was prevalent among Russian navy leadership. By implication this would be a step towards better engagement with Russia in general.

I'm of the 'lost opportunity' school. That in the 1990s the US, and Western Europe missed on a chance to deeply engage Russian leadership and population on a really effective level. Selling them more Levis trousers, or Swedish IKEA furniture was not remotely far enough in the right direction. Actual full Russian membership in NATO in then 1990s was likely out of the question, but far better engagement could have been accomplished. Unfortunately the US leadership then had few people with the vision & juice to push a better effort through.

Herman Wouk wrote a so-so novel called "War and Remembrance" where he has a USN captain, "Pug Henry" go on a fact finding mission in Russia to see how Lend lease was used. There is a meeting with a Russian general at the front at a soldier's party during a fighting lull. The Russians supposedly for "reasons" show off how they use lend-lease to Henry so he can take the word back to Roosevelt. At one point, Henry remarks the Russian soldier wears something familiar, an American made uniform. The Russian general says: "American uniform, Russian body", or something like it. The point was that Americans were using Russians as file fillers to fight "their" war for America's own ends, and the Russians KNEW it. This is a hard gulf of mistrust and bitterness to bridge. I don't blame the Russians for feeling the way they do. I never did and will. But understanding and feeling are two different things. I keep writing, that it is not about blame or fault, but LESSONS LEARNED. You can see where I come down?

The Russians actually (for them) tried to reach across the bridge of mistrust. Murphy knows with the Moscow Madman, the philosophical barrier of communism and clumsy missteps by Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Kosygin and several other inept leaders on the Russian side, it was not entirely without reason that a nation that had been Pearl Harbored (The Russians don't understand about that one, they really don't, though with Port Arthur they should.) had her own monumental trust issues. Like I said, both sides had never learned to trust each other and neither could read the other very well; so missed the efforts and the signals when offered.

It is a miracle we got out of the cold war alive. With Putin now, realizing that they muffed it in 1989-1999, the Americans have to grit their teeth, hang on and wait for another try, with maybe a better bunch of Americans and possibly a less bitter generation of Russians who had to bootstrap themselves out of the CCCP collapse. I don't think the current generations are wise enough, patient enough or trusting enough to let go of the old errors. But maybe, if enough people to people contact continues, our children will look back at us idiots and wonder why we never learned.

McP.
 
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