WI: Russia invades Austria 1848/1849

Once fighting between Austrians and Hungarians really gets going and everyone else is busy with revolutions, the Tsar decides that now is the time to occupy Galicia, and maybe also (bits of) Slovakia.

Afterwards, he throws his support behind whichever power looks like losing (in this case, the Hungarians), so as to keep his enemies divided and keep his gains.
 
A Dekabrist Russia (as implausible as that would be in itself) would be quite likely to assist the Hungarians, especially if the deal is sweetened with Galicia and/or Bukowina.

Otherwise... maybe if the April laws are not passed and the Hungarians radicalise more quickly in their demands for independence the whole Habsburg "house of cards" might well collapse, then Nikolaj can occupy those areas under the pretense of restoring order (but not giing further into Hungary because at that point it would look as eccessive expansionism by the other powers?

If the situation is more similar to otl I don't think such a landgrab would be countenanced, even if, say, it was being offered by the Hungarians themselves in the hope of avoiding Russian support for Vienna.

I know that Nikolaj was initially reluctant to intervene and Franz Josef had to literally beg him, but to the point of intervention *against* Habsurg interests... No, I don't think that's feasible...
 
IMHO the only possibility might be the complete collapse of the Habsburg empire (which was a possibility during the first semester of 1848).
There are two problems here: Russia, Austria and Prussia were the guarantors of the European order which was established by the Congress of Vienna, and the sudden collapse of one of the two greater powers would open a crisis very difficult to solve peacefully (Prussia was in a way a spare wheel of the triumvirate, and in 1848 their main worry was how to avoid that the revolutionary epidemics might be contained at the borders of Prussia); the other problem is that - for different reasons - the two western powers would not be in a position to intervene directly: France has had its own revolution, a bourgeois one but still a revolution, and while the provisional government would be very cautious and try to avoid giving the rest of Europe the idea that it is 1792 again I cannot see them taking up the role of policeman; the UK policy IOTL was to prop up the Austrian empire, which was considered vital for the stability of Central Europe, but while they would be certainly willing to diplomatically support the Habsburg empire, they would not be in the position of intervening directly nor interested to manage a coalition which might hand over Central Europe to Russia.

The collapse of the Austrian empire would be a very interesting POD, difficult to justify since the various revolutionary movements don't appear to be sensible enough to coordinate their efforts; if it happens, though, everything goes: the future of Europe would be much different from OTL. The least probable course is a Russian intervention, but it is still within the realm of possibilities.
 
Well if Russia did invade Habsburg Austria, and still did the Crimean War, there's a high chance Austria will want revenge. Depending how badily weakened they were.
 
Unlikely for all the reasons stated above. To Nicholas, Austria was a bulwark against revolution and essential to maintaining order in Europe. But how about this (also unlikely) angle?: The coterie around Franz Joseph is liberal and enacts a compromise with Hungary, withdraws unilaterally from German and Italian affairs and offers de facto autonomy to the Poles in Galicia. Then, Nicholas invades Austria to reverse all these things.
 
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Unlikely for all the reasons stated above. To Nicholas, Austria was a bulwark against revolution and essential to maintaining order in Europe. But how about this (also unlikely) angle?: The coterie around Franz Joseph is liberal and enacts a compromise with Hungary, withdraws unilaterally from German and Italian affairs and offers de facto autonomy to the Poles in Galicia. Then, Nicholas invades Austria to reverse all these things.
Quite funny, and obviously so close to impossible that no one could see the gap. However you forgot the bit where FJ refuses the crown and enters a monastery :p
 
If Austria lost Hungary, it would serious screw them and even seriously make them think about joining Germany as its identity is in trouble, and might survive

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