WI: Russia instead of Austria-Hungary in Triple alliance

Germany and Russia could agree to divide A-H between them. With a bit for Italy. The alliance would benefit both of them: Russia provides Germany with food and raw materials, Germany delivers industrial products to Russia. After they overwhelm A-H together, they can fight France and Britain however they want.
 
I'm neither an imperial German nor Russian politician, I don't know what they'd demand, or whether they'd pull off such a plan anyway. Maybe they would leave core Hungary to the Habsburgs?
 
I'm neither an imperial German nor Russian politician, I don't know what they'd demand, or whether they'd pull off such a plan anyway. Maybe they would leave core Hungary to the Habsburgs?

I guess imperial Germany would try and probably achieve to annex "Hungary" because of a large German minority.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germans_of_Hungary

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest#Languages

The Russians did not have vital interests in that part of the former Austrian Empire.
 
How do you get rid of Bismarck though? He was the main force behind the unification of all the German lands.


Ding Ding Ding and thats the winning statement:

BIsmarck WANTED Austria OUT of Germany, but WITHIN the German sphere. Thus the treaty after the 1866 war.

But without OLD Bismarck the Prussians would likely have not suceeded in the German unification - maybe not even in defeating the South Germans.

But even IF - lets assume 1866 runs as OTL and Germany TAKES Bohemia (Moravia and Austrian Silesia). The first thing Austria (-soon to be A-H) probably would instantly Ally with Old Nappy the III - And Nappy would surely be able to bring in good old Italy (Rome would be more tempting to Turin than the few remaining Italians in A-H)

Now we have a "war of 1870", but on French terms, because Bismarck would realize that he has to care more carefully. If things are going wrong for Prussia the war is lost (some German states might even "side" with the Austro-french Alliance). You end with France taking away some Prussian territory. A-H with mindset on revenge will take back what it lost + maybe Silesia...

You get a totally different TL.

Now scenario two - much more likely IMHO:

It was clear to Bismarck that as long as France was an enemy he needed Allies elsewhere - he was private with the dealings in St Petersburg and if - instead of hosting the 1878 Berlin conference - supports Russia (and be it only diplomatically) he could keep continued good terms with Russia - proclonging and strengthening the "dreikaiserbündnis" - On the other side Frnace and Britain will come early to the conclusion that they have mutual interest and form another alliance - of course they will support the OE - which always will side with the enemy of Russia (Probably).
 
Let's look at the "Germany gets Bohemia" - You will have to somehow butterfly Bismarck and the Crown prince - maybe a wound sustained in the Prussian - Austrian war could do that. The King, and the Generals do push through, conquer Bohemia and on to Vienna.

Then we'll have to look further to weakened A-H influence (without Bohemia) , maybe an Independent Hungary or very autonomous at least - again the A-H compromise of 1867 was mostly the result of the lost war.

A-H or what's left of it will not be a major, if any party to the Berlin Conference and will not gain Bosnia, butterflying further away the Archduke's assassination in 1914 in Sarajevo.

Lastly, without manpower and the arms factories in Bohemia (Prague the 3rd largest city of A-H ITL, and the Skoda works being one of the largest arms industry and metalworks in A-H) you will get basically neglible Austria - Hungary or even two of them independent , with neglible influence at the Europe's politics at all.

There goes then the question, why would France and Britain even seek any alliance with the Austria - Hungary.

I'd suggest maybe a different stances at the Berlin congress, with Bismarck out of the equation, seeing Germany backing the Russia instead A-H and causing the A-H to join the Entete powers instead.

In this scenario (Bismarck dead, Hungary and Austria separated), I can only see the rump Austria joining Germany, and Hungary probably becoming a puppet. Hard to see the Russians standing for such a strong state in their neighbourhood.
 
The Russians did not have vital interests in that part of the former Austrian Empire.

Although the Russians tried very hard to break into the Hungarian plain in WWI, considering the Austrian front won if such a breakthrough occurred. And the Russians know that if they control Hungary, the Balkans WILL fall to them, barring some major calamity.
 
Ding Ding Ding and thats the winning statement:

BIsmarck WANTED Austria OUT of Germany, but WITHIN the German sphere. Thus the treaty after the 1866 war.

But without OLD Bismarck the Prussians would likely have not suceeded in the German unification - maybe not even in defeating the South Germans.

But even IF - lets assume 1866 runs as OTL and Germany TAKES Bohemia (Moravia and Austrian Silesia). The first thing Austria (-soon to be A-H) probably would instantly Ally with Old Nappy the III - And Nappy would surely be able to bring in good old Italy (Rome would be more tempting to Turin than the few remaining Italians in A-H)

Now we have a "war of 1870", but on French terms, because Bismarck would realize that he has to care more carefully. If things are going wrong for Prussia the war is lost (some German states might even "side" with the Austro-french Alliance). You end with France taking away some Prussian territory. A-H with mindset on revenge will take back what it lost + maybe Silesia...

You get a totally different TL.

Now scenario two - much more likely IMHO:

It was clear to Bismarck that as long as France was an enemy he needed Allies elsewhere - he was private with the dealings in St Petersburg and if - instead of hosting the 1878 Berlin conference - supports Russia (and be it only diplomatically) he could keep continued good terms with Russia - proclonging and strengthening the "dreikaiserbündnis" - On the other side Frnace and Britain will come early to the conclusion that they have mutual interest and form another alliance - of course they will support the OE - which always will side with the enemy of Russia (Probably).

If Austria loses Bohemia too, the Cisleithanian part of the empire becomes too tiny: the price for the Ausgleich would skyrocket (and possibly there will never be an A-H).
Bismarck did not want Austria in the German confederation for sure, but he wanted Bohemia even less so (actually he did not want even the south-German catholic states: he was afraid that the massive increase of Catholic population in Germany would have been a potential disaster). After 1870 his hand was forced by a surge of nationalism, but I'm not sure he was so completely happy with the outcome.
The funny thing is that Austria was never very warm to French overtures for an alliance (Nappy tried very hard in the early 1860s, and was unsuccessful. He tried again after 1866, and at this time the Hungarians were positively against any further entanglement in Germany).

Re what happened in 1878, Bismarck did not have a good solution: supporting the Russians would have pissed off the Austrians and their targets in the Balkans (not to mention UK and France) so playing the role of the honest broker was the default choice. Nothing surprising here.
 
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