alternatehistory.com

On the 23rd of July when Serbian Regent Crown Prince Alexander requested Russian support against the ultimatium they were refused. On the 24th/25th Russian Agriculture Minister Alexander Krivoshein convinces the Russian Council of Ministers to forgoe partial mobilisation. The Council of Ministers collectively convince Nicholas II that Russia cannot afford war. Instead, in event of Austria-Hungary or Germany making a move defensive preparations are made, but the conclusion is that Russia will not defend Serbia. On the 28th when Austria-Hungary declares war Russia condems Austria-Hungary publicly but does not mobilise.

What are the possible implication of this?

One scenario is that Serbia concedes even more because they know Russia won't support them, this has the same impact on Wilhelm as it did OTL but even stronger. The SPD will protest much more against Austria in Germany and while the warhawks have control of the government without Russia attacking they lack a scapegoat or rallying cause. This could mean that Austria Hungary is pressured to come to peace quickly.

Edit: I tried looking for other threads on this, but couldn't find them, if you know of any be sure to share them.
Top