WI: Russia did not colonize east of the Urals

Most likely the Oirat Mongols will consolidate the former Siberian khanates. They will eventually be conquered by Russia in it's expansionist period of the 19th century, but perhaps eventually re-gaining independence ala Central Asia.
 
As the title says: "What if Russia did not colonize east of the Urals?"

What would be the fate of Siberia if Russia just does not care about expansion eastwards?

Who colonizes Siberia and why?

Who colonizes Alaska and why?

the local tibes and Khanates remain and will continue to launch raids into Russia for the next couple of centuries. Russia will be much weaker and might fall to the Poles or even Swedes!
 
Does Russia not colonizing preclude beating the Khanates into submission, though? Vassal states, that is.
 
I really have no idea how the heck can Russia not colonize east of the Urals (as by 1580, which seems to be the POD, it's about the only remaining area for expansion).
Well, of course no Yermak expedition would delay it a little (1600?)... but after that, there seems to be only two choices on how can Russia not colonize there at all.
1) A major victory in the West, North and/or South gives Russia a lot of land there, leaving it with open ways to continue in that particular direction.
2) An earlier and worse Time of Troubles means Russia has much more important things to worry about than expansion.
That basically boils down to: 1) Russia conquers the PLC, 2) Russia is conquered by the PLC; there are a few less probable scenarios in the first case (such as Russia beating Crimea or Sweden instead; Kazakhstan would also make a good one but it basically means going around the Urals and might not be allowed by OP), but the second is still far more probable (as Devolved already noticed) - and in this case there's no Russia as we know it (I'm no sure who exactly would own, say, Kazan or Yaroslavl once such an uber-PLC implodes, but it's not going to be anything like OTL Russia).
So, the second scenario is not very interesting - and the first is very improbable (1580s Russia was a relatively backwards nation compared to its western neighbours, and I personally don't know of any war in that era which might help Russia conquer to the west, or for that matter north or south).


...So what, how? :):)
January First-of-May
 
Russia could have traded with the khanates instead of taking them over with no major changes. It would lose a useful dumping ground for political prisoners and other undesirables. Having Siberia gave Russia a nice cushion it could have retreated to if the Napoleonic Wars or WWII went worse than they did.
 
Who colonizes Siberia and why?

The Chinese colonize large parts of far eastern Siberia only to quickly lose them to the Japanese in the early 1900s. Following the Japanese defeat in the Pacific War, the United States does not want an independent Siberia falling to either Soviet, or the looming Maoist communsim.

The solution, since Japanese Siberia only has a thin indigenous population that is out numbered by Japanese colonists, the area is declared part of Japan proper. The Japanese get to keep it.
 
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The Chinese colonize large aprts of far eastern Siberia only to quickly lose it to the Japanese in the early 1900s. Follwoing their defeat in the Pacific war, the Untied States does not want an independent Siberia falling to either Soviet, or the looming Maoist communsim.

The solution, since Japanese Siberia only has a thin indigenous population that is out numbered by Japanese colonists, the area is declared part of Japan proper. The Japanese get to keep it.

I don't even know where to start about that. For one, where does Stalin send the criminals to ITTL? ;);)
[basically, you really need to have at least some butterflies, this as you have it is worse than Draka TL]
 
I don't really see anyway to keep someone from that region out. I mean if Russia get's conquered by the Lithuianians or the Swedes and they expand those nations will quickly become Russian in all but name anyway. Meanwhile the Chinese would have no incentive to trudge across the Northern Mountains. The only real chance for anyone else would be in the late 1800s or early 1900s looking for ressources*, and if imperialism occurs for the Europeans than whoever controls the are of Russia will go for it anyway.


*technologically, not necessarily these exact centuries what with butterflies and all.
 
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