Hello everyone,
I have an idea that I feel could certainly lead to the defeat of the Russian Empire by the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottomans) by very early 1915.
This centers around making sure the Germans do still win at Tannenburg and the Masurian Lakes (destroying all of the 1st Army at the Masurian Lakes could help as well) while the Austro-Hungarians prove to be a competent military power and successfully hold the line in Galicia, maybe also taking out Serbia as well.
But the linchpin of this concept hinges on the Ottoman Empire, specifically them not fucking up at Sarikamish. If Enver Pasha proves to be a more competent military leader than in OTL, I believe that this victory could change the face of the war.
Think about it. Ottoman control of the Caucasus would most likely prevent the genocide of the Armenian, Pontic Greek, and Assyrian peoples. But that's not all.
In 1905, when the Russian Empire was defeated by a non-white power, Japan, the people REVOLTED against Nikolai. The only thing that prevented them from succeeding was the army's loyalty, and the fact that that army was not already occupied with another conflict, allowing them to quickly swoop in and help. In 1917, when another Revolution came, not only was the army occupied with fighting the Germans, it was also pretty fed up with the Czar, so they didn't come to his assistance.
Thus, I feel that if the Ottoman Empire was able to score a victory at Sarikamish, the leper of Europe, the men that the Russians had literally been beating the living shit out of so hard in the 19th century that they might as well have been a reanimated corpse at the opening of the 20th, that the Russian people would have had enough with these endless military disasters in East Prussia, Galicia, and now the Caucasus, and could rebel again, just 2 years earlier than in OTL. But this time, as in 1917, the Russian army would again be away from Moscow and St. Petersburg, so... you know what's going to happen here.
And imagine the consequences. Earlier Brest-Litovsk, perhaps even Romania joining the CP as quickly as possible to grab as much of Bessarabia and maybe even Transnistria as they can, and Bulgaria also being convinced to join in exchange for parts of Greece and Serbia. I could also see Sweden potentially joining for a quick reconquest of Finland. Italy may be scared out of joining the Entente as Austria-Hungary won't be preoccupied with kicking Russia out of Galicia as well as getting destroyed by Serbia. And of course, will Germany will obviously have to keep some troops in the East to protect their newly conquered ex-Russian territories, this means they can send a lot more men to the Western Front; an earlier Operation Michael, perhaps?
Not only this, but the Ottomans, without having to fight the Russians, can focus more on the British in Mesopotamia and the Levant, so probably a much easier war for them.
Thoughts?