WI: Russia Defeated in Early 1915

Hello everyone,

I have an idea that I feel could certainly lead to the defeat of the Russian Empire by the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottomans) by very early 1915.

This centers around making sure the Germans do still win at Tannenburg and the Masurian Lakes (destroying all of the 1st Army at the Masurian Lakes could help as well) while the Austro-Hungarians prove to be a competent military power and successfully hold the line in Galicia, maybe also taking out Serbia as well.

But the linchpin of this concept hinges on the Ottoman Empire, specifically them not fucking up at Sarikamish. If Enver Pasha proves to be a more competent military leader than in OTL, I believe that this victory could change the face of the war.

Think about it. Ottoman control of the Caucasus would most likely prevent the genocide of the Armenian, Pontic Greek, and Assyrian peoples. But that's not all.

In 1905, when the Russian Empire was defeated by a non-white power, Japan, the people REVOLTED against Nikolai. The only thing that prevented them from succeeding was the army's loyalty, and the fact that that army was not already occupied with another conflict, allowing them to quickly swoop in and help. In 1917, when another Revolution came, not only was the army occupied with fighting the Germans, it was also pretty fed up with the Czar, so they didn't come to his assistance.

Thus, I feel that if the Ottoman Empire was able to score a victory at Sarikamish, the leper of Europe, the men that the Russians had literally been beating the living shit out of so hard in the 19th century that they might as well have been a reanimated corpse at the opening of the 20th, that the Russian people would have had enough with these endless military disasters in East Prussia, Galicia, and now the Caucasus, and could rebel again, just 2 years earlier than in OTL. But this time, as in 1917, the Russian army would again be away from Moscow and St. Petersburg, so... you know what's going to happen here.

And imagine the consequences. Earlier Brest-Litovsk, perhaps even Romania joining the CP as quickly as possible to grab as much of Bessarabia and maybe even Transnistria as they can, and Bulgaria also being convinced to join in exchange for parts of Greece and Serbia. I could also see Sweden potentially joining for a quick reconquest of Finland. Italy may be scared out of joining the Entente as Austria-Hungary won't be preoccupied with kicking Russia out of Galicia as well as getting destroyed by Serbia. And of course, will Germany will obviously have to keep some troops in the East to protect their newly conquered ex-Russian territories, this means they can send a lot more men to the Western Front; an earlier Operation Michael, perhaps?

Not only this, but the Ottomans, without having to fight the Russians, can focus more on the British in Mesopotamia and the Levant, so probably a much easier war for them.

Thoughts?
 
If Russia caves in in 1915, wouldn't the Germans still waste a lot of troops at Verdun? Maybe even more? But basically I agree. With Russia out of it two years earlier than in the OTL, Germany would most likely have won.
 

Deleted member 1487

If Russia didn't quit after the defeats of the summer of 1915 in the East they aren't going to bow out over a defeat in the Caucasus.
Now that said if Russia did start to negotiate then either the French and Brits would try to negotiate with them as a bloc or would stand by to be defeated. Ultimately Russia would pay heavily post-war, as the Brits and French would punish them for leaving the war early and them out to dry. French and British loans and support would be gone and Russia out in the cold in terms of alliances, plus more likely than not Nicholas would face a revolution over the defeat.
 
Probably the best thing for Russia would be sometime late in 1915, 1916 or even Kerensky in 1917 to privately say to Britain/France, were done, no more offensives, but we will stay holding the line, until you make peace, we won't make a separate peace, but we can't help with offensives, perhaps when the Murmansk railway is completed we might be able to join in again.

If the Allies do it together in early 1916 and seek peace, I can see a slightly CP compromise peace like:
Germany gets Belgian Congo
Austria does what it wants with Serbia
Turkey gets Kars
Otherwise status quo.
 

longsword14

Banned
If Russia didn't quit after the defeats of the summer of 1915 in the East they aren't going to bow out over a defeat in the Caucasus.
Now that said if Russia did start to negotiate then either the French and Brits would try to negotiate with them as a bloc or would stand by to be defeated. Ultimately Russia would pay heavily post-war, as the Brits and French would punish them for leaving the war early and them out to dry. French and British loans and support would be gone and Russia out in the cold in terms of alliances, plus more likely than not Nicholas would face a revolution over the defeat.
This already happened in September 1914 :
"The British, French, and Russian Governments mutually engage not to conclude peace separately during the present war. The three Governments agree that when terms of peace come to be discussed, no one of the Allies will demand terms of peace without the previous agreement of each of the other Allies."
 
This already happened in September 1914 :
"The British, French, and Russian Governments mutually engage not to conclude peace separately during the present war. The three Governments agree that when terms of peace come to be discussed, no one of the Allies will demand terms of peace without the previous agreement of each of the other Allies."
We saw how that held up by 1918. If the Russians want to surrender, and the front is crumbling or revolution is threatening the government, they will surrender.
 

longsword14

Banned
We saw how that held up by 1918. If the Russians want to surrender, and the front is crumbling or revolution is threatening the government, they will surrender.
A lot happened in between. The Russians are not going to be down flat within months of their decision to not consider a separate peace.
 
We saw how that held up by 1918. If the Russians want to surrender, and the front is crumbling or revolution is threatening the government, they will surrender.

Slight technicality in the fact the government who signed this agreement and BL were not the same government. One was the Czar's the other the Soviets, and the later didn't believe they were bound by the decisions of the former
 
Slight technicality in the fact the government who signed this agreement and BL were not the same government. One was the Czar's the other the Soviets, and the later didn't believe they were bound by the decisions of the former
The Provisional Government questioned pulling out of the war and decided to throw their support behind their allies rather than the people (and we saw what happened there). It's not outside the realm of possibility that someone sane would realize the futility of keeping this going (and Lenin kept claiming his was a new government to get out of Russia's old debts and commitments; he was popular because this was what the people wanted). If the state is coming apart at the seams, Russia will cave or else the Revolution is coming which will end it. Russia alone isn't surviving this war victorious without changes on the Western Front.
 
A lot happened in between. The Russians are not going to be down flat within months of their decision to not consider a separate peace.
I'm not saying unconditional surrender, but if the Russians fail worse at Tannenberg, are stopped by the Austro-Hungarians, see a reversal with the Ottomans slowly pressing north, and watch their ally Serbia fall (their sole anchor in the Balkans and who was the cause of the entire war) to not only the Hapsburgs but also the new Central Powers Rumania and Bulgaria who only strengthen the front against them as they watch France and the UK grind it out in the trenches, wouldn't it make sense to seek an armistice and then possible terms? It's 1905 only worse: the best Russian forces have been broken, the Russian people realize the last time Nicholas had lied about empowering the Duma so they'll demand far more ACTUAL reform than before which will terrify the Tsar, and the fringe (Poland and Finland) will see their opportunity to secede from the Empire.

Surrender is in the realm of possibility if 1914 and 1915 both go tits up. If it stretches into 1916, civil war beckons as the citizenry lose faith in Nicholas, starving and sacrificing their sons to a lost cause.
 
I'm not saying unconditional surrender, but if the Russians fail worse at Tannenberg, are stopped by the Austro-Hungarians, see a reversal with the Ottomans slowly pressing north, and watch their ally Serbia fall (their sole anchor in the Balkans and who was the cause of the entire war) to not only the Hapsburgs but also the new Central Powers Rumania and Bulgaria who only strengthen the front against them as they watch France and the UK grind it out in the trenches, wouldn't it make sense to seek an armistice and then possible terms? It's 1905 only worse: the best Russian forces have been broken, the Russian people realize the last time Nicholas had lied about empowering the Duma so they'll demand far more ACTUAL reform than before which will terrify the Tsar, and the fringe (Poland and Finland) will see their opportunity to secede from the Empire.

Surrender is in the realm of possibility if 1914 and 1915 both go tits up. If it stretches into 1916, civil war beckons as the citizenry lose faith in Nicholas, starving and sacrificing their sons to a lost cause.
Even worse, the Russian Czar's honorary position as the protector of the Ottoman Christians would be broken, with them having failed to intervene far enough in Ottoman Armenia, as well as having the Russian parts of Armenia and probably Georgia too being under Islamic occupation. Probably a good loss of prestige from this as a result, further deteriorating the Czar's image among his people.

Any thoughts about what Greece might do if the Russians lose badly enough in the early months? Or the Spanish and Italians, seeing a very resurgent Germany following its massive success?
 
Hello everyone,

I have an idea that I feel could certainly lead to the defeat of the Russian Empire by the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottomans) by very early 1915.

This centers around making sure the Germans do still win at Tannenburg and the Masurian Lakes (destroying all of the 1st Army at the Masurian Lakes could help as well) while the Austro-Hungarians prove to be a competent military power and successfully hold the line in Galicia, maybe also taking out Serbia as well.

But the linchpin of this concept hinges on the Ottoman Empire, specifically them not fucking up at Sarikamish. If Enver Pasha proves to be a more competent military leader than in OTL, I believe that this victory could change the face of the war.

Think about it. Ottoman control of the Caucasus would most likely prevent the genocide of the Armenian, Pontic Greek, and Assyrian peoples. But that's not all.

In 1905, when the Russian Empire was defeated by a non-white power, Japan, the people REVOLTED against Nikolai. The only thing that prevented them from succeeding was the army's loyalty, and the fact that that army was not already occupied with another conflict, allowing them to quickly swoop in and help. In 1917, when another Revolution came, not only was the army occupied with fighting the Germans, it was also pretty fed up with the Czar, so they didn't come to his assistance.

Thus, I feel that if the Ottoman Empire was able to score a victory at Sarikamish, the leper of Europe, the men that the Russians had literally been beating the living shit out of so hard in the 19th century that they might as well have been a reanimated corpse at the opening of the 20th, that the Russian people would have had enough with these endless military disasters in East Prussia, Galicia, and now the Caucasus, and could rebel again, just 2 years earlier than in OTL. But this time, as in 1917, the Russian army would again be away from Moscow and St. Petersburg, so... you know what's going to happen here.

And imagine the consequences. Earlier Brest-Litovsk, perhaps even Romania joining the CP as quickly as possible to grab as much of Bessarabia and maybe even Transnistria as they can, and Bulgaria also being convinced to join in exchange for parts of Greece and Serbia. I could also see Sweden potentially joining for a quick reconquest of Finland. Italy may be scared out of joining the Entente as Austria-Hungary won't be preoccupied with kicking Russia out of Galicia as well as getting destroyed by Serbia. And of course, will Germany will obviously have to keep some troops in the East to protect their newly conquered ex-Russian territories, this means they can send a lot more men to the Western Front; an earlier Operation Michael, perhaps?

Not only this, but the Ottomans, without having to fight the Russians, can focus more on the British in Mesopotamia and the Levant, so probably a much easier war for them.

Thoughts?

An Ottoman Victory at Sarikamiş is not enough to control the Caucasus. It puts more pressure on the Russians as more defeats follow by. The Ottomans gain at least Kars, Artvin and maybe parts of Todays Armenia around Gyumri. Not enough to drive the Russians out. The only possible way to get a decent chunk of the Caucasus is if a catastrophe in Poland and the Baltic is bigger and draws more Russian Troops out of the Caucasus. But I don't know if it can get worse for the Russians than in OTL.
 
I'm not saying unconditional surrender, but if the Russians fail worse at Tannenberg, are stopped by the Austro-Hungarians, see a reversal with the Ottomans slowly pressing north, and watch their ally Serbia fall (their sole anchor in the Balkans and who was the cause of the entire war) to not only the Hapsburgs but also the new Central Powers Rumania and Bulgaria who only strengthen the front against them as they watch France and the UK grind it out in the trenches, wouldn't it make sense to seek an armistice and then possible terms? It's 1905 only worse: the best Russian forces have been broken, the Russian people realize the last time Nicholas had lied about empowering the Duma so they'll demand far more ACTUAL reform than before which will terrify the Tsar, and the fringe (Poland and Finland) will see their opportunity to secede from the Empire.

Surrender is in the realm of possibility if 1914 and 1915 both go tits up. If it stretches into 1916, civil war beckons as the citizenry lose faith in Nicholas, starving and sacrificing their sons to a lost cause.

Surrender depends on what Germany demands. If they demand a lot then Russia will try to fight a bit longer. If Germany does not demand more then the war can end as early as 1914.
 
Even worse, the Russian Czar's honorary position as the protector of the Ottoman Christians would be broken, with them having failed to intervene far enough in Ottoman Armenia, as well as having the Russian parts of Armenia and probably Georgia too being under Islamic occupation. Probably a good loss of prestige from this as a result, further deteriorating the Czar's image among his people.

Any thoughts about what Greece might do if the Russians lose badly enough in the early months? Or the Spanish and Italians, seeing a very resurgent Germany following its massive success?

Any major Ottoman gains would be at best Armenia and Azerbaijan. The only part of Georgia would be Batum and maybe. Meskheti. Georgia would be as good as independent in such situation, even if the Ottomans manage to get a larger part of the Southern Caucasus. The difference between Georgia and Armenia is that Georgia was religiously largely homogeneous (Christian).
 
Any major Ottoman gains would be at best Armenia and Azerbaijan. The only part of Georgia would be Batum and maybe. Meskheti. Georgia would be as good as independent in such situation, even if the Ottomans manage to get a larger part of the Southern Caucasus. The difference between Georgia and Armenia is that Georgia was religiously largely homogeneous (Christian).
Well I mean that Georgia would be under Ottoman occupation following their victory at Sarikamish; I doubt that they would annex it after the war, however, seeing as they did not do so in OTL.
 
The lack of railroads in the Caucasus would limit the gains possible with an Ottoman victory. Probably so limited that it would be unlikely to spur a revolt against the Tsar.
 
Well I mean that Georgia would be under Ottoman occupation following their victory at Sarikamish; I doubt that they would annex it after the war, however, seeing as they did not do so in OTL.

It will take more than Sarikamish to bring Georgia under Ottoman control. And German ambassadors will call for better treatment or even coorporation with Georgians. The Ottomans won't do stupid things like start opressing Georgians. They aren't 19th Century Saudi Arabia ruling over Shiites. To give an example. Otherwise the Georgians will aid the Russians more and more.

I have an idea that people have wrong ideas over the Ottomans.
 
We saw how that held up by 1918. If the Russians want to surrender, and the front is crumbling or revolution is threatening the government, they will surrender.

Well, in 1918 Russia had a government which explicitly repudiated the old obligations and agreements.
 
Even worse, the Russian Czar's honorary position as the protector of the Ottoman Christians would be broken, with them having failed to intervene far enough in Ottoman Armenia, as well as having the Russian parts of Armenia and probably Georgia too being under Islamic occupation. Probably a good loss of prestige from this as a result, further deteriorating the Czar's image among his people.

Any thoughts about what Greece might do if the Russians lose badly enough in the early months? Or the Spanish and Italians, seeing a very resurgent Germany following its massive success?
Greece likely buddies up with the UK if they're smart (and no way they press claims for Greater Greece). Italy, smartly staying neutral, probably leans back toward the CP. Spain is still sorting itself out.
 
Surrender depends on what Germany demands. If they demand a lot then Russia will try to fight a bit longer. If Germany does not demand more then the war can end as early as 1914.
If it's still early (1915 is) Germany isn't too radicalized to demand THAT much. They likely press for Poland. Now what everyone else wants depends on their successes.
 
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