WI Russia conquers the Manchu and all land north of the Wall?

How good was Russian power projection on the region by the 17th century?

Hmm... maybe? China lost Gansu during the Tang dynasty and it only became part of China during the Yuan Dynasty (or Ming depending of your standards), nothing indicates whoever rules China would be revanchist.
Gansu as chinese moldova? A no majority Manchuria?
 
The Russians probably could have gotten a Russian majority in the two NE Manchurian provinces but we're leery about their chances in the third just because of the huge number of Han living there. The other 2 provinces were still relatively thinly settled even given the large amount of Han settlement that had taken place from 1860 onward.

If Russia had the other two provinces, they've got a lot better agricultural and industrial land to start a population expansion from.

If there is a Boxer Rebellion type event I suspect that there won't be a ton of Han Chinese left in Manchuria given what happened in the 64 villages.
 
The Russians probably could have gotten a Russian majority in the two NE Manchurian provinces but we're leery about their chances in the third just because of the huge number of Han living there. The other 2 provinces were still relatively thinly settled even given the large amount of Han settlement that had taken place from 1860 onward.

If Russia had the other two provinces, they've got a lot better agricultural and industrial land to start a population expansion from.

If there is a Boxer Rebellion type event I suspect that there won't be a ton of Han Chinese left in Manchuria given what happened in the 64 villages.
If the russian, the Manchu and other non han migrants make a majority then the region is secured, specially if they make a russian corridor on the frontier. Or a 1990 Bosnia like situation where the russians are only first or second minority but they are spread all over the territory and without ethnic cleansing there wouldn't be anyway to divide territory ethnically.
 
Top