What if during Russia's siberian expansion they conquer the Manchu and the land north of the wall before the Manchu conquer China? I guess the Ming would be dealing with their own chaos and decline so the Manchus are on their own but it also means the Ming would get replaced by a non Manchu dynasty, not necessarily Han. What I don't know if the russians can actually do the thing: they are really far awayvfrom europe and the Manchu are not simple nomads on oppen steppes, they are sedentarian. Of course if Russia is successful they could get a LOT of good agricultural land in the far east and easy access to the port of Vladivostok, which means early russians in the west pacific.
WI Russia conquers the Manchu and all land north of the Wall?
- Thread starter EnvarKadri
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- manchuria ming china russia
It would require a bunch of things for starters. First Russia either wins the Livonian War or it does not happen. Second, no Time of Troubles. This is so Russia has the freedom to go that far without worrying about internal stability or invasion. No Imjin War, which helped give the Manchu's their chance to conquer China as resources needing to be spent on the Imjin War among other things, most importantly see what can be done to keep the Ming stable, and the Manchu's divided. Vladivostok did not exist, so it would have to be built.
Of course I mean the general area of the future port. Its the only good russian port in the east.
Manchurian conquest of China happened between 1618 and 1683. In 1613 Muscovite state was out of the Time of Troubles and, with the short interruptions, had been fighting the PLC until 1667. There was no strong Russian presence in the area even in the 1689 so it would be rather difficult for them to conquer Manchu before Manchu conquered China.
As far as agricultural land is involved, a lot of it had been available in the European Russia and successful wars against the Ottomans did secure enough of it (not all these lands had been fully exploited even by the late XIX). As far as easy access to the port of Vladivostok is involved, it was founded only in 1860 (town status was granted only in 1880) and access to it was not "easy" before construction of the Trans-Siberian Railroad: it was faster to sail to it around Africa than to travel to it by land.
Mmmh, maybe if the collapse of the Ming is more messy and/or Russia is in better shape he russians can attack in the back the Manchu once they are war tired and deep into China, if there are more faction without clear hegemony in the war or maybe if the manchu don't unite or I dunno, don't know too much detail of this region in this historical period.
With the land bit I mean that the agricultural land would be really useful for the russian far east, a place that doesnt have that much good land (specially before the occupation of outer manchuria) and with that form a dense population core in east asia.
As I said, most of the time during that period the Muscovite state had been busy fighting the wars on its Western and Southern frontiers, which were a much higher priority. It simply did not have enough resources for a meaningful and successful intervention that far on the East: travelling there by land from European Russia was taking approximately 2 years and in the XVII century Russian state simply did not have a navy.
Well, the good land obviously would be useful but for it to become a significant factor you need population capable of using it, which means a much earlier big migration from the European Russia to the Pacific coast. Hardly realistic taking into an account difficulties and length of the travel. Even migration from the Western Siberia would require a reasonably big Russian population there, which would be a problem in the XVII century. Then, again, there could be a good land and even enough people to make use of it but what's the point if by all practical measures communication with the rest of Tsardom is almost absent?
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Unless there are changes going well beyond those you described, building Vladivostok would be pretty much useless because Tsardom of Moscow did not have a navy and such a port would be pretty much useless.
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
I'm not sure when the Qing started to send Han Chinese to Manchuria but if it is after 1850, the Russians may have a chance to conquer Manchuria as it is not too populated yet...
Russian Conquest anything North of the wall can happen post-1830. Russia has pretty much secured Siberia, it has a decent military which is far better than Qing China. Mongolia has a population of 3 million today. Assuming it is lower in the 19th century I don't think it is too hard for the Russians to conquer Mongolia.
Russian Conquest anything North of the wall can happen post-1830. Russia has pretty much secured Siberia, it has a decent military which is far better than Qing China. Mongolia has a population of 3 million today. Assuming it is lower in the 19th century I don't think it is too hard for the Russians to conquer Mongolia.
That may be a better POD, but the Qing didnt send the Han there, it was their land and for centuries they put settlement bans for non Manchus there. With the decline of Qings power and Han demographical presure the Qing simple were unable to stop the Han masses from walking into Manchuria.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Second half of the 1700s is more plausible if they can catch a break from European wars
North of the Great Wall already had plenty of Han Chinese (Shenyang was a fairly decent sized city since the Liao Dynasty, IIRC.
The depends on whether or not anything east of Shanhai Pass is counted as "north of the Great Wall". The Ming built a wall there, but they had real trouble keeping it.
Isnt that in the Liaodong peninsula, that is mostly south of the wall?
I count the penindula as south of the wall, although I was imagining the place as a latter russian conquest (more late 19th century imperialism/colonialism protectorate), as its part of the historical Han core regions and density populated, compared to the rest of Manchuria pre Great Migration is imposible to assimilate and make majority russian. I think that Manchuria pre Han migration was posible to make majority russian but it still be hard. The Manchu are a settle people but a number of them would be forced to migrate south because the violence of the conquest and a number of them would be converted orthodox and maybe even assimilated into russian. Of course, having the russians far less migration and natality potencial than the Han population I assume the Manchu would remain even in the 20th century a sizeable minority and may be entitled to their own ethnic SSR, so maybe Manchu lenguage and culture would be better off in ttml then in otl getting conquerer by your own really numerous subjects.
Original post stipulates that Russian conquest has to happen before or while the Manchu are conquering China (aka well before a XIX century). Taking into an account that within stipulated timeframe there was no significant Russian presence anywhere close to Manchuria, the life style of the Manchu really does not matter.
You are right, but there is no POD limit (go as early as you want) to make the russians be there in time. Or better use one of the alternative later PODs offered by other comments.Original post stipulates that Russian conquest has to happen before or while the Manchu are conquering China (aka well before a XIX century). Taking into an account that within stipulated timeframe there was no significant Russian presence anywhere close to Manchuria, the life style of the Manchu really does not matter.
Manchuria seems to have had like a bit less of a million people in 1700:
https://books.google.com/books?id=0...v=onepage&q=manchuria population 1800&f=false
Xinjiang and Mongolia didn't have that many people either but compared to Manchuria their population potential was relatively smaller.
https://books.google.com/books?id=0...v=onepage&q=manchuria population 1800&f=false
Xinjiang and Mongolia didn't have that many people either but compared to Manchuria their population potential was relatively smaller.
How early do you think can Russia put pressure on this region given favourable conditions?Original post stipulates that Russian conquest has to happen before or while the Manchu are conquering China (aka well before a XIX century). Taking into an account that within stipulated timeframe there was no significant Russian presence anywhere close to Manchuria, the life style of the Manchu really does not matter.
Later POD is fine but none of the earlier would not work: short of the fundamental changes in Russian history (including road construction) you simply can’t have a big Russian population there prior to the second half of the XIX century.