WI: Russia & China Veto of Libya No Fly Zone.

Would the US and Euro Countries still push for Intervention/War without UN support?

If Libya avoids destruction, what effect would Gaddafi's new Gold Backed Currency and Participating Nations have on the ongoing Financial Crisis? Specificly the Dollar and Euro?

Would Gaddafi's dreams of Pan Africanism bear any fruit as a result of the Gold backed currency improving local economies and trade? What sort of effects would such changes have on the Arab spring and its aftermath? Would Egypt have closer ties to this Alt Libya? Would the Election results in Egypt be any different?

Would Syria avoid its current Terrorist attacks/War if Libya didnt get crushed?
 
NATO will go for it, anyway, no matter the barking of the Russians (and passive statement of condemnation by the Chinese), but probably it would happen a bit later.
 
NATO will go for it, anyway, no matter the barking of the Russians (and passive statement of condemnation by the Chinese), but probably it would happen a bit later.

I disagree. Obama really wanted the mandate.

France and the UK may go it alone, though. The US would supply them with info and materials but would not officially join.
 

whitecrow

Banned
NATO will go for it, anyway, no matter the barking of the Russians (and passive statement of condemnation by the Chinese), but probably it would happen a bit later.
If they do (not sure they would) then I would expect direct Russian intervention in Syria as a tit-for-tat.
 
I disagree. Obama really wanted the mandate.

France and the UK may go it alone, though. The US would supply them with info and materials but would not officially join.

Yeah, that's what I meant - especially France, as it was Sarkozy who was putting the most pressure for intervention (and greatly helped the (then) rebels in Beghazi.
 
NATO will go for it, anyway, no matter the barking of the Russians (and passive statement of condemnation by the Chinese), but probably it would happen a bit later.
Wouldn't Loyalist forces have overrun Benghazi if NATO's intervention had been any later?
 
I disagree. Obama really wanted the mandate.

France and the UK may go it alone, though. The US would supply them with info and materials but would not officially join.

For all intents and purposes that's pretty much what happened. The US did launch some strike missions but they mostly focused on doing the logistical heavy lifting. Given the state of Libya's air forces vs France & Britain with US support the end result would probably be the same in Libya.

The impact this would have on foreign affairs, however, has to be considered. If no mandate is achieved, the US sticks only to logistical support, and Britain and France lead the charge just as OTL that's going to impact the dynamics of world affairs especially between the US and Europe. Would that shift also stop the new UN sanctions on North Korea from happening? In an immediate sense Russia and China blocking the No-Fly zone doesn't have much impact but the butterflies would be huge.
 
If they do (not sure they would) then I would expect direct Russian intervention in Syria as a tit-for-tat.

Oddly enough - or not - Friday 18 March, the day when the UN No-Fly resolution was adopted, the most serious protest at the time happened in Syria. Maybe Syrian protesters won't be so encouraged by the prospect of other nations intervening in their favour as there won't be any relevant and fresh precedent. (At the time, the actual Civil War in Syria hadn't started, it was "just" very big protests.) There may be serious butterflies.

Wouldn't Loyalist forces have overrun Benghazi if NATO's intervention had been any later?

The rebels did have some more time, probably the Loyalists would need 3-4 more days to encircle Benghazi and then there would likely be Misratah situation for another 5-10 days, at which point NATO will probably intervene.
 

whitecrow

Banned
The impact this would have on foreign affairs, however, has to be considered. If no mandate is achieved, the US sticks only to logistical support, and Britain and France lead the charge just as OTL that's going to impact the dynamics of world affairs especially between the US and Europe. Would that shift also stop the new UN sanctions on North Korea from happening? In an immediate sense Russia and China blocking the No-Fly zone doesn't have much impact but the butterflies would be huge.
Yeah, demonstrating that UN Resolutions are meaningless might not be such a good move...
Oddly enough - or not - Friday 18 March, the day when the UN No-Fly resolution was adopted, the most serious protest at the time happened in Syria. Maybe Syrian protesters won't be so encouraged by the prospect of other nations intervening in their favour as there won't be any relevant and fresh precedent. (At the time, the actual Civil War in Syria hadn't started, it was "just" very big protests.) There may be serious butterflies.
True enough. When I spoke of Russian intervention, I meant later when the actual conflict is underway (though, as you point out, it could be butterflied away in which case Russia would probably try to play tit-for-tat elsewhere)
 
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