WI: Russia annexes East Turkestan and Mongolia
- Thread starter Will Kürlich Kerl
- Start date
This is OTL for Mongolia during the entire Sviet period, and for XInjiang between 1934 and 1949.
That's just acute influence.
Also, is it most appropriate to call that province Xinjiang, East Turkestan, or Uyghurstan?
Xinjiang/Sinkiang is the Chinese name for for the province. East Turkestan was the Russian name for the area (though perhaps slightly archaic now that west Turkestan (and Turkestan in general) no longer exists and is no longer used). Uyghurstan is a modern invention, rather than a historical name.
So it really depends on who's point of view your talking from.
Yes and no; prior to the creation of the term East Turkestan the name Chinese Turkestan was used, among other names.
While it was originally used to refer to the region in general, the only people who use it now are those supporting independence.
katchen
Banned
I should think that both Uighurstan and Mongolia would have become Soviet Socialist Republics and that Mongol Soviet Socialist Repulic would extend to what is now Buryat ASSR east of Lake Baikal. And if the Russians went that far, they might well have annexed Tibet as well. Which would have led most likely to internationally recognized independence for all three areas when he USSR broke up in 1989. Maybe a trunk railroad extending from Ust Kamengorsk through Ulan Bator to Manchouli. All of thes e nations would be filty rich with mineral resources.
Russia would depend more now on the Baikal-Amur Mainline since that would now be the only railroad to the Russian Far East running entirely through Russian territory.
Russia would depend more now on the Baikal-Amur Mainline since that would now be the only railroad to the Russian Far East running entirely through Russian territory.
What would make this interesting is if Russia annexed Manchuria at some point. Like if they won the Russo-Japanese war. Then they'd have an area from the southern base of the Urals to the Pacific Ocean that would be easy to build infrastructure through. I can also see heavy Russian settlement along their new transcontinental railways. The implications for Russian presence in the east are astounding.
Yes, Manchuria (as in the Amur valley) is the one area where Russian (or Ukrainian/German as the case might be) farming practices can actually be profitable. There was already huge amounts of unregulated migration to Turkestan, Manchuria would probably attract even more.
It would be a strange and different world.
Admiral Matt
Gone Fishin'
Such major annexations would have to be balanced by corresponding advantages for - at minimum - Britain and France. Give both of those enough to calm them down and China's sovereignty is in severe peril. Deny it to them and either Russia is forced to back off or you're on a short count-down to a Great War over the issue.
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NothingNow
Banned
It depends. If it's just Mongolia and Turkestan, it's not that big a deal.
It'd likely be settled with Guarantees of British Influence on Afghanistan and Tibet, and Suzerainty at least for all of Guangdong Province, for Britain, and the French getting say, Guangxi and Hainan.
If it's the entire Amur river as well, it'd have to include a partition of Yunnan and more.
Depending on the period in question, the Japanese would also be likely to raise a fit and demand at least parts of Liaoning province, and the southern parts of Jilin province. Maybe all of Liaoning and a good chunk of Jilin if the Russians want the Amur river valley that badly.
It'd still leave China a viable nation, albeit something of a rump, though still greater in area than the Sui, Tang, or Northern Song Dynasties. Most of the actual Provinces would still be under Qing control.
Needless to say, it'd make for some serious fighting should the Russo-Japanese war cook off, and would likely see the Japanese attempt to seize or at least mine the Amur below say, Blagoveshchensk and Harbin to cut Vladivostok off from resupply.
And it'd give a lot of power to groups like the Boxers.
Russia annexed outer Manchuria, an area roughly the size of Chinese Manchuria, without having to negotiate with other powers.
Admiral Matt
Gone Fishin'
Context missing. That was Russian compensation for the Anglo-French concessions gained in the Second Opium War.
Yeah, I think if Russia managed to take Manchuria ( down to Dalien ) and russi-/europize it until the beginning of XIXth cent., this would have global consequences, among which, but not all, are:
- Manchuria has fertile soils, forests, convenient sea ports... the best place to implant booming demographically euro-civilization.
- this euro-civ would be situated between China, Korea and Japan and will dictate the trade between them + will have access to markets of 50+% the world ones. Dalni/South Manchuria could become the"UK" of the Asia-Pasific region - discouraging and suppressing any sea-faring activities by the local nations, and controlling all the exchange between them. Ortodox China, Korea, Japan?
- the Russian colonization of Hawaii, California, Alaska-Oregon ... would make sense, cause the great hub of Dalni with its billions of acres of fertile hinterland would make great use of Pasific N.American goods ( not only gold and furs ).
- In 1650es Malay archipelago is already Dutch, Philippines - Spanish , but Australia, New Zealand and Oceania in general + Antarctica could rather be occupied by the Force holding the Northern Pacific as their own RU "lake".
In 1618-1648 the period is benign because Europe is within the mess of the 30yrs war ( hence RUs back is safe AND colonists ARE available ) and China is in the mess of the Manchu conquest. ( hence RU can push the only 2 mln. Manchu south into China while Manchu dynasty is busy to consolidate their control over China proper ). RU Manchuria by 1650es means RU N.America in late 1600es, not the last decades of 1700es.
- Manchuria has fertile soils, forests, convenient sea ports... the best place to implant booming demographically euro-civilization.
- this euro-civ would be situated between China, Korea and Japan and will dictate the trade between them + will have access to markets of 50+% the world ones. Dalni/South Manchuria could become the"UK" of the Asia-Pasific region - discouraging and suppressing any sea-faring activities by the local nations, and controlling all the exchange between them. Ortodox China, Korea, Japan?
- the Russian colonization of Hawaii, California, Alaska-Oregon ... would make sense, cause the great hub of Dalni with its billions of acres of fertile hinterland would make great use of Pasific N.American goods ( not only gold and furs ).
- In 1650es Malay archipelago is already Dutch, Philippines - Spanish , but Australia, New Zealand and Oceania in general + Antarctica could rather be occupied by the Force holding the Northern Pacific as their own RU "lake".
In 1618-1648 the period is benign because Europe is within the mess of the 30yrs war ( hence RUs back is safe AND colonists ARE available ) and China is in the mess of the Manchu conquest. ( hence RU can push the only 2 mln. Manchu south into China while Manchu dynasty is busy to consolidate their control over China proper ). RU Manchuria by 1650es means RU N.America in late 1600es, not the last decades of 1700es.
Their's really no way for Russia to take it before the 19th century as China was in the superior position until then.
I should think that both Uighurstan and Mongolia would have become Soviet Socialist Republics and that Mongol Soviet Socialist Repulic would extend to what is now Buryat ASSR east of Lake Baikal. And if the Russians went that far, they might well have annexed Tibet as well. Which would have led most likely to internationally recognized independence for all three areas when he USSR broke up in 1989. Maybe a trunk railroad extending from Ust Kamengorsk through Ulan Bator to Manchouli. All of thes e nations would be filty rich with mineral resources.
Russia would depend more now on the Baikal-Amur Mainline since that would now be the only railroad to the Russian Far East running entirely through Russian territory.
That's pretty unlikely actually. Remember that Nagorno-Karabakh was not placed in the Armenian SSR when the USSR was around. It remained a part of the Azeri SSR. And the two Ossetias were not united under one SSR (either Georgia or Russia). So it doesn't automaticallly follow that Buryatia will be added to (Outer) Mongolia. Maybe Tannu Tuva. But Buryatia? Unlikely.
It'd be a ridiculous idea to make a Ossetian SSR, given it's so tiny, however that said at one time Ossetia was all part of a single SSR, but the borders changed eventually.
well it depends on when it will happen.
Lets say Russian plotted rebel in Mongolia during Taiping rebellion and Second Opium War. Then in 1860 they annexed Mongolia to Russian Empire. During 1860's Mongolia was Outer Mongolia + Inner Mongolia + Zungarian Basin + Koknuur region (Noerthern Qinhai Province) + Some land from OTL Jilin, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Hebei province. In this case they would have annexed Manchurian land north of Sungary river. Maybe even OTL Jilin could be annexed.
With hold on Koknuur you are clash with British interest in Tibet. If Russians somehow settled their issue with British Empire, then next step would be annexation of Southern Xinjiang - which again will need settlement with British Empire.
So if everything goes as OTL, then Soviets decision after Manchurian Operation in 1945 will be very interesting.
Will they annex Huludao, so they can get ice-friendly port at Bohai Sea?
Will they try to set up independent-puppet Manchurian People's Republic?
IMO, with this scenario Soviet Union will have 17 SSR.
Mongolian SSR will ihave border of Buriat, Tuva, Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, Zungarian basin some land of OTL Jilin and Heilongjiang province. A lot of Chinese would have been deported to Central Asia and Western Siberia.
Turkstan SSR will have border of OTL southern Xinjiang.
RSFSR will have OTL Russia + North of Sungary + what they got from Jilin province + Huludao (if they annexed it in 1945) and minus Buriatya - Tuva.
For China it means no oil from Karamay and Daqin, which will have big impact on them during Sino- Soviet split.
I didn't say the two Ossetias would have been united AS one SSR, but UNDER one SSR. As in the two Ossetias were not placed under then authority of either the Georgian SSR or the Russian SFSR solely.
Also at no point in the USSR's existence were the two Ossetias a part of a single SSR. South Ossetia was governed by the Georgian Democratic Republic (with frequent enough Ossetian rebellions) between 1918 and 1920 and continued to be under Georgia's jurisdiction despite any change in the form of Georgia's government. North Ossetia remained under Russian rule (sort of) from 1918-1922 (when the USSR was formed) but went through a number of subordinate Soviet Republics (such as the Terek Soviet Republic, Mountain ASSR and North Caucasian Soviet Republic).
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