WI: Russia and Austria Support Muhammad Ali’s Egypt

Bulgaria is closer to Constantinople than Serbia is. Also, Austria can take parts of Serbia without annexing all of it.
I have yet again read it wrong. My bad. The idea of Bulgarians in Macedonia is grey area. The final settlement of calling them Bulgarian was when the area fell within the Bulgarian exarchate, which is not the case in 1833. They belong to the Patriarchy of Constantinople and are one of the many Christians (first) and Slavs (second). Which means if the Serbs entered the area first then they could attach the people faster than they tried in OTL (which failed obviously...). So no large conflict between the Christian Slavs if North Macedonia and the Serbs.

Serbia has self rule for almost 20 years now and any conflict between the Ottoman Serbs and Austria will cause a conflict with Nicholas I. The guy was pretty serious in protecting the Orthodox in Ottoman territory which he did in 1829 as well. By the time Austria occupies Bosnia, North Macedonia will be occupied by the Serbs. The Austrians won't easily occupy an area which is already in rebellion.

Hence why Bosnia and Albania are the best Austria can achieve, with Albania being a vassal principality of some sort.
 
I have yet again read it wrong. My bad. The idea of Bulgarians in Macedonia is grey area. The final settlement of calling them Bulgarian was when the area fell within the Bulgarian exarchate, which is not the case in 1833. They belong to the Patriarchy of Constantinople and are one of the many Christians (first) and Slavs (second). Which means if the Serbs entered the area first then they could attach the people faster than they tried in OTL (which failed obviously...). So no large conflict between the Christian Slavs if North Macedonia and the Serbs.

Serbia has self rule for almost 20 years now and any conflict between the Ottoman Serbs and Austria will cause a conflict with Nicholas I. The guy was pretty serious in protecting the Orthodox in Ottoman territory which he did in 1829 as well. By the time Austria occupies Bosnia, North Macedonia will be occupied by the Serbs. The Austrians won't easily occupy an area which is already in rebellion.

Hence why Bosnia and Albania are the best Austria can achieve, with Albania being a vassal principality of some sort.
Would this Albania include Kosovo? What about Montenegro? Also I would imagine Bulgaria would dispute over Macedonia.

Also we haven't talked about this yet: but I want to talk about Greece here. They're definitely going to gain a lot of territory. Do we see a Greece being like something out of the Megali Plan in this scenario?
 
Would this Albania include Kosovo? What about Montenegro? Also I would imagine Bulgaria would dispute over Macedonia.

Also we haven't talked about this yet: but I want to talk about Greece here. They're definitely going to gain a lot of territory. Do we see a Greece being like something out of the Megali Plan in this scenario?
Could... could not. There are a lot of Serbs there and as said before, Austria won't reach the area before pacifying Bosnia. It depends on how strong the Albanians are. With a bit of luck they manage to stretch out to Nis. But I think the Principality of Serbia is stronger than what the Albanians can offer.

Not necessarily larger. They get Thessaly. Nothing more. This Greece is bankrupt already and can't declare a new war. They are dependent on what Russia will tolerate them to have.
 
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Could... could not. There are a lot of Serbs there and as said before, Austria won't reach the area before pacifying Bosnia. It depends on how strong the Albanians are. With a bit of luck they manage to stretch out to Nis. But I think the Principality of Serbia is stronger than what the Albanians can offer.

Not necessarily larger. They get Thessaly. Nothing more. This Greece is bankrupt already and can't declare a new war. They are dependent on what Russia will tolerate them to have.
Also I just realized Muhammad Ali is Albanian. I don’t think he’ll tolerate Austrian domination over his homeland.

Russia and Austria could give Greece a helping hand in expanding territory. In exchange of being at their service of course.
 
Also I just realized Muhammad Ali is Albanian. I don’t think he’ll tolerate Austrian domination over his homeland.

Russia and Austria could give Greece a helping hand in expanding territory. In exchange of being at their service of course.
He was Albanian or Turkish. And he was from Kavala, far away from Albania. Besides, he lives in Egypt, he can't do much about it.

They do and that is at best Thessaly and some Aegean Islands.
 
He was Albanian or Turkish. And he was from Kavala, far away from Albania. Besides, he lives in Egypt, he can't do much about it.

They do and that is at best Thessaly and some Aegean Islands.
He’s Albanian I checked. And yeah he can’t do much. He’ll definitely protest it. And assuming his dynasty is capable of it, would consider planning an invasion to take it.

Russia would also march across Anatolia and head straight for Constantinople where they would go for a lot more.
 
He’s Albanian I checked. And yeah he can’t do much. He’ll definitely protest it. And assuming his dynasty is capable of it, would consider planning an invasion to take it.

Russia would also march across Anatolia and head straight for Constantinople where they would go for a lot more.
Going to march without Anatolia to Constantinople is silly if not retarded. One, it is further away than from the Balkans. Two, it is geographically worse. Three, there are literally only hostile people living there (aside from the Armenians but they are not numerous). Three, supplying a Russian force through Anatolia is a geographical hell in the 1830s. If a 100,000 men were to march from Tbilisi to Constantinople, half of them would die before they reach Bursa and half of the remaining would be too ill to fight. That is assuming there is no Ottoman Resistance. Which is not mentioned here or anywhere in the thread.

I am willing to describe what could happen theoretically in such case. But the Russians marching through Anatolia to Constantinople is a suicide mission. They haven't much to gain from Anatolia other than parts of Eastern Anatolia and maybe Trabzon as a Southern port. That is it in Anatolia.
 
Going to march without Anatolia to Constantinople is silly if not retarded. One, it is further away than from the Balkans. Two, it is geographically worse. Three, there are literally only hostile people living there (aside from the Armenians but they are not numerous). Three, supplying a Russian force through Anatolia is a geographical hell in the 1830s. If a 100,000 men were to march from Tbilisi to Constantinople, half of them would die before they reach Bursa and half of the remaining would be too ill to fight. That is assuming there is no Ottoman Resistance. Which is not mentioned here or anywhere in the thread.

I am willing to describe what could happen theoretically in such case. But the Russians marching through Anatolia to Constantinople is a suicide mission. They haven't much to gain from Anatolia other than parts of Eastern Anatolia and maybe Trabzon as a Southern port. That is it in Anatolia.
Let me rephrase that: Russia would send forces through Anatolia AND send forces through to Constantinople through the Balkans. I didn’t mean from Anatolia to the Balkans. And there Russia would assist Armenians.
 
Let me rephrase that: Russia would send forces through Anatolia AND send forces through to Constantinople through the Balkans. I didn’t mean from Anatolia to the Balkans. And there Russia would assist Armenians.
Not enough Armenians to assist. They gotta kill a lot of Kurdish tribes and Turks to have anything last there. Besides, this does not change much. Sending troops to Anatolia is pointless. To subjugate the entire area is impossible in the 1830s. It is largely Turkish and/or Islamic. They are not going welcome the Russians and their Armenian allies with flowers in the war against the Ottomans. A Russian force going to Anatolia won't go further than Erzurum and that is the best case. Other than the area what could be described as Western Armenia and a few coastal towns in Eastern Anatolia, Russia won't/would not start a major Anatolian Campaign. Sending troops there is a waste of resources you could use in the Balkans. Which would be the primary front as it was in every way since 1806.
 
Not enough Armenians to assist. They gotta kill a lot of Kurdish tribes and Turks to have anything last there. Besides, this does not change much. Sending troops to Anatolia is pointless. To subjugate the entire area is impossible in the 1830s. It is largely Turkish and/or Islamic. They are not going welcome the Russians and their Armenian allies with flowers in the war against the Ottomans. A Russian force going to Anatolia won't go further than Erzurum and that is the best case. Other than the area what could be described as Western Armenia and a few coastal towns in Eastern Anatolia, Russia won't/would not start a major Anatolian Campaign. Sending troops there is a waste of resources you could use in the Balkans. Which would be the primary front as it was in every way since 1806.
Austria would also be invading the Balkans too BTW. And Egypt would be invading Iraq and Ottoman North Africa. Yes it would be difficult but the Ottomans fighting a three war front would find it very difficult to keep it together.

And at eastern Anatolia Russia could fund Armenian, Assyrian, and Greek rebels that live there as well assist Greeks living in Western Anatolia and Cyprus.
 
Austria would also be invading the Balkans too BTW. And Egypt would be invading Iraq and Ottoman North Africa. Yes it would be difficult but the Ottomans fighting a three war front would find it very difficult to keep it together.

And at eastern Anatolia Russia could fund Armenian, Assyrian, and Greek rebels that live there as well assist Greeks living in Western Anatolia and Cyprus.
Normally I would say the Ottomans are experienced in fighting a coalition war. It was not the first time. but this is the 1830s. One of the weakest era's for the Ottomans in terms of new military reforms and the lack of Government authority. Regardless of that, it won't make them an easy picking. I'd say it like this, Russia would still focus mainly on the Balkans. The Austrian participation especially is the reason for a stronger Russian focus. In a worst case scenario the Austrians may gain too much. Russia would not know about the degree of the Austrian success at first.

Armenians are one thing but they are not numerous. Assyrians sure as hell aren't. Assyrians are actually risking extinction actually as the only thing that prevented their destruction at the hands of Kurdish tribes was the Ottoman intervention in the region, albeit with European ambassadors pressuring it. Anatolian Greeks are not numerous. They live in areas with more Muslims than Christians (consider 80-20 difference at best case). They will face a horrible fate as well. When there is no order, there isn't anything that protects them from angry Muslims living there. The Russians won't magically reach them on time to save them.

The best the Russians could do and what is worth doing is financing Greeks and Bulgarians. Those have potential. In Anatolia, there are Armenians to finance but they are not numerous. And it is not a major front for the Russians.
 
Normally I would say the Ottomans are experienced in fighting a coalition war. It was not the first time. but this is the 1830s. One of the weakest era's for the Ottomans in terms of new military reforms and the lack of Government authority. Regardless of that, it won't make them an easy picking. I'd say it like this, Russia would still focus mainly on the Balkans. The Austrian participation especially is the reason for a stronger Russian focus. In a worst case scenario the Austrians may gain too much. Russia would not know about the degree of the Austrian success at first.

Armenians are one thing but they are not numerous. Assyrians sure as hell aren't. Assyrians are actually risking extinction actually as the only thing that prevented their destruction at the hands of Kurdish tribes was the Ottoman intervention in the region, albeit with European ambassadors pressuring it. Anatolian Greeks are not numerous. They live in areas with more Muslims than Christians (consider 80-20 difference at best case). They will face a horrible fate as well. When there is no order, there isn't anything that protects them from angry Muslims living there. The Russians won't magically reach them on time to save them.

The best the Russians could do and what is worth doing is financing Greeks and Bulgarians. Those have potential. In Anatolia, there are Armenians to finance but they are not numerous. And it is not a major front for the Russians.
The Balkans would definitely see Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria, Austria, and Russia be carved in sort-or equal ways. I would see that Russia could get to Constantinople though and take bits of Western Anatolia and potentially cut off the Ottomans from the Aegean Sea entirely.

As for Anatolia, if Egypt manages to seize the Ottoman Empire south of Anatolia and the Balkans then the Ottomans are going to be very hard pressed in finding any support. And if the Ottomans lose the Balkans easily then whatever is left is definitely easy pickings. It’ll definitely take a long time but taking advantage of the Ottomans during this period will definitely be devastating for the Ottomans.
 
The Balkans would definitely see Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria, Austria, and Russia be carved in sort-or equal ways. I would see that Russia could get to Constantinople though and take bits of Western Anatolia and potentially cut off the Ottomans from the Aegean Sea entirely.

As for Anatolia, if Egypt manages to seize the Ottoman Empire south of Anatolia and the Balkans then the Ottomans are going to be very hard pressed in finding any support. And if the Ottomans lose the Balkans easily then whatever is left is definitely easy pickings. It’ll definitely take a long time but taking advantage of the Ottomans during this period will definitely be devastating for the Ottomans.
Anatolia and Bulgaria would potentially be a Russian client state. No need for Egypt to be close to the Straits. Greece becomes a bit bigger. Albania as an Austrian puppet and Bosnia as a direct part with extended autonomy for the Ayans. Serbia expanded more Southwards. Anatolia as a Turkish rump state. The straits under Russian control for a safe passage. Eastern Anatolia annexed by Russia. Iraq and Libya annexed by Egypt. This is what it would look like. If we avoid a general European War.

Egypt seizing the Ottoman Empire South of Anatolia? They were in North West Anatolia in 1833 when the European intervened. Egypt seizing won't stop the Ottomans finding allies willing to back them. I have to mention again, this is a theoretical situation in what would happen if the Russians, Austrians and Egyptians participated together. The reality of that happening is slim as Russia would not want to share a listening Ottoman Empire with an unruly Egypt or Austria. Austria would not want Russia to surround them. The British are not going to watch that happen. But I avoid that discussion to get a proper discussion in this thread in what could happen. I think most people reading here would like to know about that.
 
Anatolia and Bulgaria would potentially be a Russian client state. No need for Egypt to be close to the Straits. Greece becomes a bit bigger. Albania as an Austrian puppet and Bosnia as a direct part with extended autonomy for the Ayans. Serbia expanded more Southwards. Anatolia as a Turkish rump state. The straits under Russian control for a safe passage. Eastern Anatolia annexed by Russia. Iraq and Libya annexed by Egypt. This is what it would look like. If we avoid a general European War.

Egypt seizing the Ottoman Empire South of Anatolia? They were in North West Anatolia in 1833 when the European intervened. Egypt seizing won't stop the Ottomans finding allies willing to back them. I have to mention again, this is a theoretical situation in what would happen if the Russians, Austrians and Egyptians participated together. The reality of that happening is slim as Russia would not want to share a listening Ottoman Empire with an unruly Egypt or Austria. Austria would not want Russia to surround them. The British are not going to watch that happen. But I avoid that discussion to get a proper discussion in this thread in what could happen. I think most people reading here would like to know about that.
To be clear when I mean south of Anatolia I meant Iraq, Libya, Tunisia, etc. Basically anything south of Kurdistan. Hope this clears things up.

What you said does serve as a realistic scenario of a partition war. Assuming that the OTL eastern half of Turkey (which I don’t think is considered Anatolia) is annexed to Russia (alongside a chance of Assyria), I would definitely expect forced transfers to whatever is left (assuming these are survivors because there unfortunately will be genocide). AKA Turks and Muslims forced into a rump Ottoman state, which is just Anatolia without the Aegean coastline. Armenia and Assyria would be established. The vast majority of the Turks and Kurds that survive would be forced into the rump Ottoman state and Persia.

This would take a really long time of course (like 5 years) and I’d definitely would see this having a very serious impact on the rise of Egypt, Greece, and Russia. Russia has access the Mediterranean Sea. Egypt is free to conquer the rest of the Arab world. Austria isn’t changed much. But an earlier downfall of the Ottoman Empire without a doubt has very serious consequences.
 
I don't think we would have to assume Muhammad Ali really cares about Albania. It's where he's from, it's not where he lives or has to rule.
 
I don't think we would have to assume Muhammad Ali really cares about Albania. It's where he's from, it's not where he lives or has to rule.
If he and his descendants gets more powerful and Albania is out under outside rule then maybe they’ll consider caring about it. Whether or not they’ll actually get it, that’s another story.
 
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