WI: Russ Feingold ran against Scott Walker in the 2012 Recall Election

Driftless

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Feingold would have done better than Tom Barrett. Barrett has little reach outside of Milwaukee and isn't a very charismatic campaigner. I can't stand Walker - at all - but he has skill at campaigning.
 
Feingold would have done better than Tom Barrett. Barrett has little reach outside of Milwaukee and isn't a very charismatic campaigner. I can't stand Walker - at all - but he has skill at campaigning.

So you think Feingold might have won? If so, when would his reelection be, 2014?
 
Another thing would be if he won both the recall and the reelection, who would run for the 2016 Senate seat?
 
So you think Feingold might have won? If so, when would his reelection be, 2014?

I find it unlikely that Feingold could have won, personally. But if so, then yeah, he'd be up for re-election at the time that Governorship is usually re-elected, making it even harder for him to hold onto the position. Somebody who knows more about Wisconsin politics would have to tell you about who'd run in his place for Senate, though.
 
I think any Democrat would have had trouble winning the recall. He doesn't just have to make the case against Walker-he has to make the case for a recall based on a policy disagreement rather than a clear violation of the law.

There were a number of voters who voted to keep Walker in office not because they supported him but on the principle that the recall should be reserved for cases of public corruption.

if Feingold couldn't win in 2016 how could he have prevailed in much less favorable circumstances?
 
I think any Democrat would have had trouble winning the recall. He doesn't just have to make the case against Walker-he has to make the case for a recall based on a policy disagreement rather than a clear violation of the law.

There were a number of voters who voted to keep Walker in office not because they supported him but on the principle that the recall should be reserved for cases of public corruption.

if Feingold couldn't win in 2016 how could he have prevailed in much less favorable circumstances?

Wouldn't the 2012 presidential election be somewhat favorable territory for him though since Obama was more favorable than Hillary?
 
Wouldn't the 2012 presidential election be somewhat favorable territory for him though since Obama was more favorable than Hillary?

Nope. Barrett got 500,000 fewer votes in June than Obama did in November, out of a total of about 2.4 million for both sides. That's pretty terrible. People just aren't used to voting in the middle of the year unless it's a primary or something, and even those have lousy turnout.
 
The recall did not coincide with the Presidential election. The elections were held on different dates. The Obama effect only occurs if the two are on the same ticket at the same day.

Even if the elections were on the same day there's no guarantee that the Obama effect would be enough to push Feingold over the top. A number of Democrats did not think a recall was justified under the circumstances. That means there might be enough ticket splitting in that case to save Walker.

If you want to recall Walker you need there to be a clear corruption or abuse of power case against him to persuade more Democratic voters that the recall is justified. You might need him to do something as criminal and dumb as Governor Blagojevich in Illinois.

Otherwise he wins.
 
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The recall did not coincide with the Presidential election. The elections were held on different dates. The Obama effect only occurs if the two are on the same ticket at the same day.

Even if the elections were on the same day a number of Democrats did not think a recall was justified under the circumstances.

If you want to recall Walker you need there to be a clear corruption or abuse of power case against him to persuade more Democratic voters that the recall is absolutely justified. You might need him to do something as criminañ as Governor Blagojevich Otherwise he wins.

Oh I see. I guess the 2003 recall of Gray Davis in California due to the energy crisis made me think the union busting might have been enough with a different democratic candidate in Wisconsin.
 
For whatever reason Democrats in Wisconsin had a different sense of what the Recall was for than Republicans in California.

Having Walker lose isn't impossible-but the case has to be more than "his policies are awful."

If I remember correctly there were some allegations of misconduct before he became Governor. If those allegations were proven true and therefore became a larger issue-he might become the Wisconsin equivalent of Governor George Ryan in Illinois and therefore be vulnerable.
 

Driftless

Donor
The Democratic political "bench" in Wisconsin is pretty thin.... In most cases, the incumbent Dems have decent local constituencies, but very limited recognition/approval in other parts of the state.

The nifty job of Gerrymandering the redistricting after the last census doesn't help. That redistricting has been struck down by a Federal Judge(as it should have, IMO..),..... but, that will take time to play out.
 
For whatever reason Democrats in Wisconsin had a different sense of what the Recall was for than Republicans in California.

Having Walker lose isn't impossible-but the case has to be more than "his policies are awful."

If I remember correctly there were some allegations of misconduct before he became Governor. If those allegations were proven true and therefore became a larger issue-he might become the Wisconsin equivalent of Governor George Ryan in Illinois and therefore be vulnerable.


Hmmm interesting. What if there were no recall election and Feingold ran in 2014?
 
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