WI Ruhr Occupation escalates?

In other thread of mine Faeelin mentioned that:
I think the Ruhr Occupation's outcome is the same, unless the Poles intervene; then the German state will collapse.

While a Polish intervention during the Ruhr Occupation in my Timeline W is rather improbable the idea itself might be worth a separate discussion.

1. At which point in 1923 or 1924 was Ruhr situation most likely to deteriorate?
2. How likely is Gustav Stresemann not gaining power?
3. If Weimar Republic "falls" what does that mean exactly? A goverment change? A regime change? Civil War?
4. Is there any way to predict which faction takes power in Germany after the crisis is over?
5. Were there any real prospects for independent Rhenish Republic?
6. How would the eventual Polish intervention look like? Something akin to Lithuanians taking Memel or something closer to full scale war?
 
In other thread of mine Faeelin mentioned that:


While a Polish intervention during the Ruhr Occupation in my Timeline W is rather improbable the idea itself might be worth a separate discussion.

1. At which point in 1923 or 1924 was Ruhr situation most likely to deteriorate?
2. How likely is Gustav Stresemann not gaining power?
3. If Weimar Republic "falls" what does that mean exactly? A goverment change? A regime change? Civil War?
4. Is there any way to predict which faction takes power in Germany after the crisis is over?
5. Were there any real prospects for independent Rhenish Republic?
6. How would the eventual Polish intervention look like? Something akin to Lithuanians taking Memel or something closer to full scale war?

I'm sorry not to have any answers right now - I'd need to think it over. But I wanted to say I'd be interested in seeing a development of this idea, if anybody is up to it.
 

Susano

Banned
It would probably mean chaos for Germany. Poland could probably occupy Upper Silesia, and the German government could fall over it. But then what? Yes, France would ideally like if Germany disintegrated, but thats not really going to happen. I think, at leats... of course 1923 also saw federal military action against teh stat egovernments of Saxony and Thuringia because they had dared to involve the communists in the governments via a coalition... so who knows? That and the streetfighting in Berlin and Hamburg, and the de facto dictatorship in Bavaria... some states might get some ideas...

But what I think is likely to happen is Germany staying together - but with such a rapid succession of regimes that it could make the OTL chaos look like a piqnique.
 
1. At which point in 1923 or 1924 was Ruhr situation most likely to deteriorate?
> 1923, during the hyper inflation and after the Rhenish Republic has been declared. If France presses on with greater support for the Republic and starts shooting passive resisters, it could spark off a civil war in the Ruhr.

2. How likely is Gustav Stresemann not gaining power?
> Does not apply, as he's been in power since September.

3. If Weimar Republic "falls" what does that mean exactly? A goverment change? A regime change? Civil War?
> Short-term, lots of changing regimes, medium-term a Reichswehr coup.

4. Is there any way to predict which faction takes power in Germany after the crisis is over?
> Reichswehr with support of the Freikorps and Hugenberg's media empire.

5. Were there any real prospects for independent Rhenish Republic?
> No, not unless defended against the people by French troops.

6. How would the eventual Polish intervention look like? Something akin to Lithuanians taking Memel or something closer to full scale war?
> I'd expect a "humanitarian" intervention after Polish uprisings, which will eventually push the Reichswehr into power (assuming this happens right during the turmoil with daily shifting governments). So, Polish troops move in largely unopposed or move in to protect fellow Poles. While there might be (partially heavy) resistance, it's probably not going to be a full-out war, there's simply not enough war material for this around.
 
short-term, lots of changing regimes, medium-term a Reichswehr coup.
How about communists/socialists? Did they have enough support in 1923 to attempt anything serious?
> No, not unless defended against the people by French troops.
By "people", you mean the German population? What could persuade the French to involve themselves even stronger in the Rhenish Republic affairs?
 
How about communists/socialists? Did they have enough support in 1923 to attempt anything serious?
The socialists are too mainstream to do anything. The commies are too outgunned.

By "people", you mean the German population? What could persuade the French to involve themselves even stronger in the Rhenish Republic affairs?
Yes, I meant the German population; just thought it would sublty imply the madness of trying to support a res publica gainst the publica. Frankly, the only way I could see the French getting themselves more involved is them having a beton head in charge.
 

Susano

Banned
The socialists are too mainstream to do anything. The commies are too outgunned.
And too tame, god was the SPD ever too tame in the Weimar Republic! They had good intentions with that of course, but we all know the saying...
 

Tellus

Banned
The worst case scenario, IMO, is that things degenerate to the point where the French attempt land grab in the Rhineland - on the pretext that Germany cannot pay for the war and that it must have reparations elsewhere. This would be followed by a Polish land-grab in the East; the earlier the better, so the Soviets can't do anything to respond.

How large these land grabs are depends, but a german nightmare might being constrained into Rhur-Oder borders, with a mass exodus of Germans from occupied French and Polish territories. Of course, France would stand alone in this, and even the British would say they are violating the Treaty of Versailles and take Germany's side.

The German government then collapses and extremists take power - right wing is much likely than left wing. France's willpower to be isolated internationally and to lead a bloody occupation is severely limited. Poland's is much greater, but so is Germany's ability to quickly rearm for a showdown in the East, with tacit British approval and support, even 10 years early considering how much these actions would shift continental balance.
 
3. If Weimar Republic "falls" what does that mean exactly? A goverment change? A regime change? Civil War?

Both. I think the way to do it would be a breaking point somewhere; the Communists rise up better than OTL, maybe? The army intervenes, and tries to take power?

In the interim, a Rhenish Republic looks much more appealing. Polish intervention would entail seizing Prussia and ethnically cleansing it, I imagine.

Why do you keep asking this when I'm ot around? You literally chose the one weekend this month I was at home...
 
In the interim, a Rhenish Republic looks much more appealing. Polish intervention would entail seizing Prussia and ethnically cleansing it, I imagine.
I don't really think Poland would focus on Prussia. If anything Poland could choose to occupy the East Prussian plebiscite areas, and maybe try to isolate East Prussia from the rest of Germany. Much more likely target is Silesia, profitable industrial territory and which has better ethnic proportions. "Ethnically cleansing" is not the best word to use, we could probably just see a semi-voluntary exodus just like after the end of WWI. If the situation creates enough rifts between the French and English Poland could also try to pressure Germany and LoN into putting Danzig under Polish protection.

Why do you keep asking this when I'm ot around? You literally chose the one weekend this month I was at home...
Couldn't know that. ;) I wish I knew German history well enough to include it in my timelines, but I don't. :(:rolleyes:
 
I don't really think Poland would focus on Prussia. If anything Poland could choose to occupy the East Prussian plebiscite areas, and maybe try to isolate East Prussia from the rest of Germany. Much more likely target is Silesia, profitable industrial territory and which has better ethnic proportions.

Sure, but East Prussia is isolated in a way that Silesia isn't.

The question would be what the Russians do. Reputedly they threatened to invade Poland...

"Ethnically cleansing" is not the best word to use, we could probably just see a semi-voluntary exodus just like after the end of WWI. If the situation creates enough rifts between the French and English Poland could also try to pressure Germany and LoN into putting Danzig under Polish protection.

Ethnically cleansing isn't the best word, you're right; but I think semi-voluntary is a bit weak for something involving the departure of half a million people in two years.

What to call it? Hrmm.
 
Top