WI: Rudy Guiliani runs a traditional campaign

[JVM]

Mayor of New York Rudy Guiliani tried to play a different game in the Republican presidential primaries by focusing on larger states and delegates instead of on the more traditional style of focusing on early states to build momentum. Despite being a widely-discussed candidate before the primaries, he fell to the side quickly in favor of McCain, Romney and Huckabee, who won many of the early states. Let's say Rudy decides to focus on New Hampshire (or Iowa or SC) and tries to hold a more traditional campaign?

How well does he do? Does he beat McCain for the nomination? Does he divert votes from Romney or even McCain? If he loses, where's he looking four years later? Or today ITTL?

I'm back. Sorry folks.

 

[Seleucus]

Rudy *did* try to compete in New Hampshire. He spent the second most time there of any candidate (first was Mitt Romney.) Essentially, he discovered that the more he campaigned there the more his numbers fell, and so he ended up deciding on an official 'big state' strategy instead, presumably as a means of saving face.

That didn't exactly work very well either.

 

[JVM]

Rudy *did* try to compete in New Hampshire. He spent the second most time there of any candidate (first was Mitt Romney.) Essentially, he discovered that the more he campaigned there the more his numbers fell, and so he ended up deciding on an official 'big state' strategy instead, presumably as a means of saving face.

That didn't exactly work very well either.

I knew he spent some time there but didn't know it was that much. Jesus. Could he have done better in SC or Iowa?

 

[Seleucus]

The SC and Iowa Republican electorates are both extremely socially conservative. Rudy had no chance there at all.

He didn't exactly have a great campaign strategy/message. Not for nothing did the Onion satirically write that he was running for President of 9/11 - that was practically his only real theme.

 

[Orville_third]

His only lead was when the pundits crowned him the victor of the second presidential debate for his remarks to Ron Paul, which they liked, in opposition to the polls of the public and the head of the Bin Laden Unit, Michael Scheuer, who both backed Ron Paul after that debate.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

His problem in New Hampshire was his arrogance. He rode around the state in motorcades and his audiences were asked to remain in their seats, while he left. If he could overcome his arrogance and conduct a retail campaign, he might have won. I think that you also need to have John McCain not run. The best way is to have him finishing his second term as President. I think you need the social conservative vote divided among too many candidates. It is very difficult but it is possible for Giuliani to get the nomination. It would be my political wet dream. There would have been a pro life third party and legions of social conservative stay at homes. Giuliani would carry only Wyoming and the third congressional district of Nebraska. The pro lifer would carry Utah. Obama would win with a record 529 electoral votes. Saxbe Chamblis and Mitch McConnel would have been defeated. There would have been a filibuster proof Democratic Senate from January 2009 to January 2011. The Dream Act passes and there is a more dramatic change in the tax rates.

 

[Nazi Space Spy]

His problem in New Hampshire was his arrogance. He rode around the state in motorcades and his audiences were asked to remain in their seats, while he left. If he could overcome his arrogance and conduct a retail campaign, he might have won. I think that you also need to have John McCain not run. The best way is to have him finishing his second term as President. I think you need the social conservative vote divided among too many candidates. It is very difficult but it is possible for Giuliani to get the nomination. It would be my political wet dream. There would have been a pro life third party and legions of social conservative stay at homes. Giuliani would carry only Wyoming and the third congressional district of Nebraska. The pro lifer would carry Utah. Obama would win with a record 529 electoral votes. Saxbe Chamblis and Mitch McConnel would have been defeated. There would have been a filibuster proof Democratic Senate from January 2009 to January 2011. The Dream Act passes and there is a more dramatic change in the tax rates.

Your right about Rudy's campaign in NH, but a third party candidacy and Obama landslide would not make Obama the Obama you want him to be. Plus, this third party campaign would not run candidates against sitting Republican Senators known to be pro-life.

I saw Rudy when I was 11 back in 2007. He was really focusing on Florida at that point, and yes, he arrived in a motorcade. He came through, shook hands with everyone inside the place and than left without making a speech. It was over in 20 minutes.

 

[terrellk]

I think Giuliani's trouble among the evangelical wing of the base is a bit overstated. He was endorsed by Pat Robertson after all. His real issue was the he had to run against McCain who left no room for Giuliani to succeed.

 

[Seleucus]

...IOTL, McCain alone had massive troubles with the Republican base. Before he picked Palin as his VP, states like Alaska, Nebraska, and the Dakotas were swing states. When he wanted to pick Lieberman as his Veep, delegates threatened a walkout at the convention.

Giuliani would have done even worse.

 

[terrellk]

I'm not saying the mayor would have lit a fire under evangelical's asses or anything, just that I don't think he would have crapped out so spectacularly that there would be a pro-life third party running against him. McCain saved himself with Palin. What Giuliani needs to do is pick Mike Huckabee or someone similar and let Pat Robertson give the nominee's introduction and the problem is more or less resolved.

 

[Seleucus]

The Vice Presidency is a very different thing from the Presidency. My guess is that if Giuliani had nominated another moderate Republican as his Veep (e.g. Tom Ridge or someone), he'd get the third party challenge, and it would take about 10-15% (1/4 of the GOP vote base.) If he'd nominated a conservative evangelical (Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, Sarah Palin....), he wouldn't get the strong third party challenge, but something like 10-15% of the GOP base would stay home.

 

[Emperor Charles V]

I think if Giuliani runs a stronger campaign and wins New Hampshire, the moderate vote will be split three ways between him, McCain and Romney throwing the nomination to Huckabee whom the social conservatives would unify under. Therefore, the map could look something like this:

2008 Presidential Election

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) / Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE) - 352 EV
Fmr. Gov. Michael Huckabee (R-AR) / Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) - 186 EV

 

[Seleucus]

Eh; Huckabee would not do that well. He polled *much* worse than McCain.

 

[Maniakes]

McCain was pretty far back in the national polls until after NH, when he picked up a big chunk of support from Giuliani, Thompson, and the undecideds. McCain's campaign was also having fundraising problems and relying on loans to scrape by until winning NH triggered an upswing in contributions.

If McCain had come in third after Giuliani and Romney (which he would have had to in order for Giuliani to won, since he and McCain seem to have been competing for the same pool of voters), McCain probably would have dropped out not long after NH. The major contenders in the rest of the primaries would have been Giuliani and Romney, with Huckabee and Paul performing roughly as per OTL, picking up protest votes but not seriously contending.

 

[Emperor Charles V]

Eh; Huckabee would not do that well. He polled *much* worse than McCain.

Higher evangelical turnout puts Indiana and North Carolina into the GOP column and makes Missouri less close. Plus, Huckabee being more economically moderate than most Republicans will do much better among working class voters than McCain. Plus, no Sarah Palin

EDIT: I meant McCain not Obama, my bad.

 

[Seleucus]

It's all very good and well to pontificate on what you think will happen, but pundits who fell into that trap had all but crowned Rudy Giuliani as the next Republican presidential candidate.

Or we can look at the actual polling #s. So I'll present the latest polling evidence I can find (from January 2008, before Super Tuesday effectively knocked him out.)

For instance, NBC/WSJ had Huckabee doing 22(!) points worse than McCain against Obama, and 11 points worse against Clinton (here)

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg had Huckabee doing 11 points worse against Obama and 9 points worse against Clinton (here)

US Today/Gallup had Huckabee doing 15 points worse against Obama and 9 points worse against Clinton (here)


It's true that part of this is due to name recognition. But this does not exactly convince me that Huckabee would do *better * than McCain in the general election. Any additional support from evangelical turnout and working class voters that you claim would be more than canceled out by opposition among country club/establishment/suburban Republicans - just look at how much worse Huckabee does against Obama vs. Clinton (Obama attracted a large amount of Republican crossover votes in 2008, far more than Clinton did.)

 

[Admiral Ackbar]

Higher evangelical turnout puts Indiana and North Carolina into the GOP column and makes Missouri less close. Plus, Huckabee being more economically moderate than most Republicans will do much better among working class voters than McCain. Plus, no Sarah Palin

EDIT: I meant McCain not Obama, my bad.

I'd imagine the Libertarian party doing better in this case. If the polls are showing Obama is going to win anyway, then why would a libertarian vote for someone who is a social conservative and who is also a moderate on economics? That would be the best time to cast a protest vote. So I'd expect Bob Barr, or whoever their candidate is ITTL to perform slightly better.

 

[Emperor Charles V]

I'd imagine the Libertarian party doing better in this case. If the polls are showing Obama is going to win anyway, then why would a libertarian vote for someone who is a social conservative and who is also a moderate on economics? That would be the best time to cast a protest vote. So I'd expect Bob Barr, or whoever their candidate is ITTL to perform slightly better.

Well I'm a partisan Republican and I would've definitely voted Barr if Huckabee was the nominee. No question about it. Hell, I would've voted for him IOTL if I was old enough to vote in 2008.

EDIT: Then again, I may be more of the exception than the rule because I'm a member of the libertarian faction of the Republican Party (the Pauls, Gary Johnson, Justin Amash, etc.) and an ardent opponent of both the Iraq War and the PATRIOT Act. Also, I'm young and young Republicans tend to skew heavily libertarian.

 

[JVM]

If there was a plausible PoD a Guiliani timeline could be fun, but it seems there isn't much of a way to change his potential fortunes without a PoD well before the election.

 

[TRH]

It feels like the current primary map is going some ways towards freezing Northeastern Republicans like Giuliani and Chris Christie out of contention for the nomination. They basically have to win New Hampshire or they're sunk, and even that's no easy task. And honestly, if the two parties' primaries were weighted to reflect what states their nominees could realistically win in the general election, I feel like these sorts of Republicans would have no chance at all.