WI: Ross Perot runs for the Republican nomination, 1996

As we all know, billionaire Ross Perot, who seriously contested in 1992 United States presidential election as an independent, attempted to repeat his success in 1996. He even formed a new party, the Reform Party, around his candidacy that year. However, he didn't make as much of a splash that year, getting less than 10% of the vote.

But what if he decided to run for the nomination of the Republican Party?

Say sometime between the two elections, he becomes convinced that his political career- and therefore, his political goals- won't get very far unless he throws himself behind one of the major. Sure, he may ultimately dislike the two-party system in America, but he figures that in the short term he'd better choose between one of the lesser of two evils. And for a variety of factors, from the fact that challenging incumbent President Clinton in his own party would be a tall order, to the reality that he is a bit closer to the GOP, all issues considered, he decides to go with the Republicans. So, in early 1995, he announces his intentions to seek the nomination of the Republican Party for the 1996 presidential race.

How far can he get in the primaries? He still has the spoiler stigma from 1992 (perhaps not quite as bad as Nader did after 2000, but it's still there), but he's got the money to back himself up, a relatively empty primary field, and Bob Dole would be his biggest competition (and nobody was really excited for Dole). Perhaps he steals from the anti-NAFTA part of Buchanan's base, while consolidating the moderate-to-liberal Republican vote?

Assuming he becomes the Republican nominee, what then? Who does he pick for his running mate? I assume it would need to be a conservative to balance Perot's relatively liberal positions on abortion and gay rights. How does the general election go?

And finally, should the star all align and Perot actually win... well, what next?

(No matter what happens in this scenario, one thing's for certain: in the absence of the Reform Party, Jesse Ventura probably becomes Governor of Minnesota in 1998 on the Libertarian Party line.)
 
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Assuming he becomes the Republican nominee, what then? Who does he pick for his running mate? I assume it would need to be a conservative to balance Perot's relatively liberal positions on abortion and gay rights. How does the general election go?

And finally, should the star all align and Perot actually win... well, what next?

Wow, dystopia incoming. Say this scenario occurs, and Perot needs a strong conservative to back him up, who else might he pick than Pat Buchanan? A strong social conservative who agrees with Perot on many economic issues. Say this ticket manages to make it into the White House after Clinton suffers a sex scandal (we all know it was possible). Then, shortly after entering the White House, Perot dies of a heart attack, leaving the Presidency in the hands of Patrick Buchanan.
 
He'd be seen as "The guy who made Bush lose re-election" and be as easy target to take down in the primaries. Dole creams him, and that's saying something when you lose to Bob Dole.
 
IMO, an loud and well financed Perot could beat Dole, despite the seriousness of his spoiler problem, could be handled with an "apology" speech to the nation as a whole and to GHWBush specifically for Bill Clinton.

And Dole ran a weak campaign. Easy to imagine someone else doing better.

Hell, just having Buchanan as a VP will wind up the conservatives, both in and out of the GOP.

Anti-NAFTA has some potential too.
 
Well, the "spoiler effect" could be fatal to Ross' ambitions unless he has real potential: if he wins a few states in 1992, he could cement his reputation as an able campaigner. Many of the themes of the Contract with America were inspired by Perot; maybe a Perot faction could emerge in 1994?

Yes, given his moderate social stance, he would pick a conservative running mate, but not a firebrand like Buchanan, more of an experienced politician. Thad Cochran? Connie Mack? Slade Gorton? Bob Smith? Or a newcomer, given his age. Bill Frist?
 
Well, the "spoiler effect" could be fatal to Ross' ambitions unless he has real potential: if he wins a few states in 1992, he could cement his reputation as an able campaigner. Many of the themes of the Contract with America were inspired by Perot; maybe a Perot faction could emerge in 1994?

Yes, given his moderate social stance, he would pick a conservative running mate, but not a firebrand like Buchanan, more of an experienced politician. Thad Cochran? Connie Mack? Slade Gorton? Bob Smith? Or a newcomer, given his age. Bill Frist?

Wouldn't Buchanan's outsider image help him? Perot could campaign as a sort of anti-politician, and run a populist campaign aimed at "cleaning up the corruption and immorality of Washington D.C". That would work especially well if Clinton had a sex scandal.
 
Wouldn't Buchanan's outsider image help him? Perot could campaign as a sort of anti-politician, and run a populist campaign aimed at "cleaning up the corruption and immorality of Washington D.C". That would work especially well if Clinton had a sex scandal.

THe sex scandal was a disaster for the GOP.

Better to focus on issues.
 
Even with his billions and a lackluster Republican field, Perot would have a very difficult time winning the 1996 Republican nomination.

Before his 1992 campaign as an independent, Perot was basically a moderate, pro-business, and pro-military Republican (think Pete Wilson of California or Bill Cohen of Maine or, later, Rudy Giuliani only without the marital problems or cross-dressing). Perot's protectionism and his part-folksy, part-authoritarian personality are what distinguished him most from other moderate Republicans. His charts and emphasis on the deficit were popular and part of his appeal.

His protectionism, pro-choice position on abortion, pro-gay rights position, and support for gun control most likely dooms Perot's chances in the Republican caucuses and primaries (like the latter 3 issues did for Giuliani in 2008). Like Giuliani did in 2007-08, Perot polls well in 1995-96 among Republicans and appears to be a top-tier candidate. However, the GOP establishment and social conservatives both fall in line behind Bob Dole, who wins the Iowa caucuses.

Perot may pull an upset in New Hampshire, as Buchanan did ITTL, but Dole emerges as the clear frontrunner as the Republican race shifts to the southern states winning South Carolina, etc. Perot in the race probably means that businessman Steve Forbes doesn't make that much of mark on the 1996 race as ITTL, and Perot somewhat dampens the appeal of Buchanan as both are protectionists.

If Perot loses the 1996 GOP nomination and doesn't run as an independent that year, then Dole's chances are better against President Clinton. Still, the odds are that Clinton nonetheless beats Dole with a popular vote breakdown of something like 52%-47%.
 
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