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Although I'm not convinced Roosevelt could have won, I expect he could have done better if the Democrats hadn't taken the full advantage of the progressive/conservative schism.

I wanted to explore different electoral college scenario based on the assumption that Clark is nominated instead of Wilson and suffers from opposition of Bryans' liberal wing.



#1: Low Scenario




This map has Democrats suffering at both Roosevelt and Taft hands. Wherever the victory margin is less than 10 points, the state goes to the best opponent. Two exceptions are here Vermont and Massachussets.
In Vermont, Taft margin is barely 2 points over Roosevelt; keeping in mind that this TL WI is to explore alternatives with better results for Roosevelt, I cast Vermont for Progressives. Taft however gets New Hampshire.
In Massachussets, the margin separating Roosevelt and Taft is thin enough (2.81) so that I could have Roosevelt overtaking both Taft and Clark.
In this #1 scenario, the election still goes to Clark.



#2 : Middle Scenario




In this map, we have states with victory margins less than 15 points going to best opponent. The result is the election going to the House.



#3: Upper Scenario



That's the scenario where Roosevelt wins an electoral majority.
I had Colorado (15.71 margin) going to Progressives and New York (16.71 points margin) going to Roosevelt instead of Taft.


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I used wikipedia numbers and 270towin historical interactive maps, but I was unable to get different shades of color to evidence wide and thin margins.
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