WI: Romney loses 2002 Massachusetts Governor race?

Maybe the Green-Rainbow candidate sits out, and maybe Romney says something dumb late in the campaign, and after 12 years of Republican Governors, Democrat Shannon O'Brien wins the election.

One big butterfly from this is the law regarding Senate vacancies isn't changed for fear of Romney appointing a replacement in the chance Kerry became President. So when Kennedy dies, Governor O'Brien (no way a Republican wins back Governorship in 2006), appoints Paul Kirk to fill the seat until the special election is held in November 2010. So no Scott Brown, and Democrats keep their super-majority until November 2010 at least, and probably keep the Massachusetts seat after the election.

So what type of legislation gets passed during 2010 with the Democratic super-majority in place?

As for Romney, does he continue in politics even though he never won anything? Does he still run in 2008? Would his lack of experience help or hurt him? And finally, what would the Republican primary race look like in 2012?
 
In 2010 the Bush tax cut expires and the Dream Act is passed. In 2008 and 2012, Romney does not run. I think that helps McCain in 2008. In 2012, we get a Santorium vs Gingrich contest, giving moderate Republicans no one to turn to.
 
In 2010 the Bush tax cut expires and the Dream Act is passed. In 2008 and 2012, Romney does not run. I think that helps McCain in 2008. In 2012, we get a Santorium vs Gingrich contest, giving moderate Republicans no one to turn to.

I would contest that. Butterflies would have had a very long time to take effect. No gaurantees that the same people would have ran.
 
In 2010 the Bush tax cut expires and the Dream Act is passed. In 2008 and 2012, Romney does not run. I think that helps McCain in 2008. In 2012, we get a Santorium vs Gingrich contest, giving moderate Republicans no one to turn to.

Whether Romney runs or not, I think McCain still gets the nod in 2008 and the general election plays out similar to OTL. But if Romney isn't running in 2012, then Pawlenty probably stays in longer and he might be the front-runner right now if everything else is the same.
 
Whether Romney runs or not, I think McCain still gets the nod in 2008 and the general election plays out similar to OTL. But if Romney isn't running in 2012, then Pawlenty probably stays in longer and he might be the front-runner right now if everything else is the same.

Other moderates are going to run if Romney isn't there. The only reason they did not is Moneybags Romney would outspend them and the campaign would be pointless.

Huntsman may have gained more traction, some moderates may end up giving Paul a closer look, Daniels certainly could have given it a try, Jim Douglas may take Romney's place as the New England moderate, and George Pataki might try and remind people he still exists.
 
Other moderates are going to run if Romney isn't there. The only reason they did not is Moneybags Romney would outspend them and the campaign would be pointless.

Huntsman may have gained more traction, some moderates may end up giving Paul a closer look, Daniels certainly could have given it a try, Jim Douglas may take Romney's place as the New England moderate, and George Pataki might try and remind people he still exists.

That's why I added the qualifier "if everything else is the same." No doubt if Romney isn't running then other moderates would step up.

I think Huckabee would've been the frontrunner for 2012 with a better finish in 2008 without Romney in the race. But he didn't even bother running this year in OTL, so I think he's waiting until 2016, or maybe he doesn't want to run again at all.

So nobody thinks Romney runs in 2008 in this timeline? He could try to be the Herman Cain of 2008, running off his business credentials. Plus there wouldn't be any liberal Massachusetts legislation dogging him.
 
In 2004 Scott Brown won his seat in the State Senate, so I could see him being a contender for governor in 2006.
 
In 2004 Scott Brown won his seat in the State Senate, so I could see him being a contender for governor in 2006.

No Republican is winning the Massachusetts Governor race in 2006, especially when no other Democratic incumbent Governor lost that year. It was a Democratic wave election.
 
That's why I added the qualifier "if everything else is the same." No doubt if Romney isn't running then other moderates would step up.

I think Huckabee would've been the frontrunner for 2012 with a better finish in 2008 without Romney in the race. But he didn't even bother running this year in OTL, so I think he's waiting until 2016, or maybe he doesn't want to run again at all.

So nobody thinks Romney runs in 2008 in this timeline? He could try to be the Herman Cain of 2008, running off his business credentials. Plus there wouldn't be any liberal Massachusetts legislation dogging him.

Huckabee didn't run this year because his economic policy is well to the left of any one currently running and he'd like people to forget that. If the Tea Party is still kicked off in '09, then Huckabee is non-applicable.
 
If Romney loses Massachusetts is that the end of his political career? Or would he consider a move to Utah, where he could run against/instead of Huntsman for nomination for the governor in 2004 (assuming Leavitt still gets appointed by Bush in 2003)?
 
If Romney loses Massachusetts is that the end of his political career? Or would he consider a move to Utah, where he could run against/instead of Huntsman for nomination for the governor in 2004 (assuming Leavitt still gets appointed by Bush in 2003)?

He's not running in Utah in 2004 if he loses in Massachusetts in 2002; residency qualifications apply in Utah, and in any case gubernatorial carpetbagging of that nature would not be politically feasible once Romney has nailed his colours firmly to one mast or the other.

If O'Brien wins in 2002 Romney might get another shot in 2006, but any chance of success would be out of his hands, and pretty much wholly dependent on O'Brien making an appaling hash of things.
 
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One big butterfly from this is the law regarding Senate vacancies isn't changed for fear of Romney appointing a replacement in the chance Kerry became President. So when Kennedy dies, Governor O'Brien (no way a Republican wins back Governorship in 2006), appoints Paul Kirk to fill the seat until the special election is held in November 2010. So no Scott Brown, and Democrats keep their super-majority until November 2010 at least, and probably keep the Massachusetts seat after the election.

She may appoint someone else to that Senate seat. Probably Deval Patrick or Martha Coakley.
 
Maybe Romney's absence in 2008 helps Huckabee. Although Huckabee does not win the nomination, as been said before on this thread he does well enough to motivate him to run in 2012. So now it is a Huckabee vs Huntsman or Huckabee vs Pawlenty.
 
Maybe Romney's absence in 2008 helps Huckabee. Although Huckabee does not win the nomination, as been said before on this thread he does well enough to motivate him to run in 2012. So now it is a Huckabee vs Huntsman or Huckabee vs Pawlenty.

That gets very interesting. Huckabee can't pretend to be a fiscal conservative like Santorum and Gingrich.
 
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