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Basically as above, supposing Romney goes for a safer option and picks a moderate for the bottom of the ticket, does it have any effect on the race? IIRC the Ryan pick was what finally solidified the conservative base behind Romney and helped lift the campaign for a short period.
Furthermore, what are the consequences seeing as Medicare and the budget presumably become less important issues? Can Romney do any better, or does the lack of a severe fiscal and social conservative mean the base doesn't turn out?