WI: Romney doesn't pick Ryan for the VP slot?

Basically as above, supposing Romney goes for a safer option and picks a moderate for the bottom of the ticket, does it have any effect on the race? IIRC the Ryan pick was what finally solidified the conservative base behind Romney and helped lift the campaign for a short period.

Furthermore, what are the consequences seeing as Medicare and the budget presumably become less important issues? Can Romney do any better, or does the lack of a severe fiscal and social conservative mean the base doesn't turn out?

Thanks in advance :)
 
It could bring the popilar vote up or down but I don't really know if there'd be any difference to the electoral vote. Except maybe Florida.
 
Portman maybe lets him win, but not likely, as Romney still all-but-endorsed Ryan's budget plan. Portman would still help Romney with the base though, as he's not a "flip-flopper" and is a standard Republican or every issue, but I don't know that Romney needed to be playing to the base as late as the convention.
 
Portman maybe lets him win, but not likely, as Romney still all-but-endorsed Ryan's budget plan. Portman would still help Romney with the base though, as he's not a "flip-flopper" and is a standard Republican or every issue, but I don't know that Romney needed to be playing to the base as late as the convention.

Yes, putting a Bush Administration official on the ticket would be a wonderful way of saying "I'm not Bush 2.0..."

People rarely vote for the VP, only against them.

Edit: Rarely. Only a Sith deals in absolutes.
 
Meh. Ryan did no harm (surprisingly enough), and he reassured a shaky base. That's about as much as any VP nominee could have done.
 
Basically as above, supposing Romney goes for a safer option and picks a moderate for the bottom of the ticket, does it have any effect on the race? IIRC the Ryan pick was what finally solidified the conservative base behind Romney and helped lift the campaign for a short period.

Furthermore, what are the consequences seeing as Medicare and the budget presumably become less important issues? Can Romney do any better, or does the lack of a severe fiscal and social conservative mean the base doesn't turn out?

Thanks in advance :)

Even with Ryan on the ticket, Romney won seniors by a wide margin. Ryan didn't hurt Romney with his budget.

That said, I think, had he picked Rice, the election takes on a different tone: The "war on women" meme is shot down to an extent. So, with that headed off, Obama may carry women, but not by the margin he did in November.

She also may have been able to convince Romney to make Benghazi an issue - and a decimation of Biden on that issue in the VP debate would have opened new wounds in addition to a bad economic record. But she would not have had the enthusiasm the base had for Ryan, but if she cuts Obama's margin among women down, it may make up for it. The Bush 2.0 attacks might work, but Rice gave a good RNC speech, and she does give Romney's campaign the option to go after Obama on foreign policy.
 
Even with Ryan on the ticket, Romney won seniors by a wide margin. Ryan didn't hurt Romney with his budget.

That said, I think, had he picked Rice, the election takes on a different tone: The "war on women" meme is shot down to an extent. So, with that headed off, Obama may carry women, but not by the margin he did in November.

She also may have been able to convince Romney to make Benghazi an issue - and a decimation of Biden on that issue in the VP debate would have opened new wounds in addition to a bad economic record. But she would not have had the enthusiasm the base had for Ryan, but if she cuts Obama's margin among women down, it may make up for it. The Bush 2.0 attacks might work, but Rice gave a good RNC speech, and she does give Romney's campaign the option to go after Obama on foreign policy.

I second this - had Condi gotten the VP, it would have shored up the base, negated the War on Women/minorities somewhat, given him some much needed foriegn ploicy credos, and tacked on much needed expirience and gravitas. Heck, had she been the VP, I would have voted for him. Romeny/Rice would likely carry Virginia and Florida with her, maybe Ohio and a few other states too.

Another one is Bob McDonnel, the Governor of Virginia. Would have given him Virginia, he's a good speaker, popular across party lines, and his one black mark, the abortion thing, can cleanly be blamed on Cucinelli. He's balanced Vriginia's budget, kept our economy in better shape than most governors, and is a Tea Party favorite, yet not enough to isolate indepenants and the base. Think a more competive Paul Ryan, minus the controversy and not kept on the bench for most of the campaign.

In either case, they'd make a meal of Biden in the debates, especially Rice.
 
The only VP pick I can see making any material difference is Chris Christie, assuming you don't butterfly away Sandy. Even then, it's hard to imagine a Romney win with the fundamentals of the economy moving in the right direction in October.
 
The only VP pick I can see making any material difference is Chris Christie, assuming you don't butterfly away Sandy. Even then, it's hard to imagine a Romney win with the fundamentals of the economy moving in the right direction in October.

The problem with Christie is that he has no desire to be second fiddle, and he knows damn well he's gonna be a candidate in 2016.
 
The only VP pick I can see making any material difference is Chris Christie, assuming you don't butterfly away Sandy. Even then, it's hard to imagine a Romney win with the fundamentals of the economy moving in the right direction in October.

Supposing Mitt offers it to him, and Christie accepts (VERY unlikely IMO), what kind of effect does that have on the race when Sandy hits?
 
Ryan was one of the weakest VP picks in history for the public, but it caused Romney's funding to go up. Either way, he can't do better than he did. Christie or Rubio would overshadow Romney, so they won't get picked. Portman has the Bush label, everyone else is boring. Condi was never going to get picked.
 
I have to believe there was an "understanding" between Mitt and a couple of senior GOP officials that he would pick a right winger. If so Ryan makes a lot of sense. He is a believer. He has articulated a plan to downsize government. He comes across as intelligent. Compared to some of the other available picks—Santorum, Baughman, DeMint—he is a moderate. As an example of what I mean to my knowledge he has never claimed God talks to him.

The GOP has been hijacked by their right wing. The fact that they control the House makes it difficult for the party to move back into the mainstream.
 
The only way that a different VP would've helped Romney is if he picked a more moderate Republican. Even Rice would have been a bad choice for two reasons. One it would be really easy to remind the independent votes of the failings of Bush foreign policy which she would be the face of. Two it would be hard to sell a black woman to the Republican base, most would not want her to be a heartbeat away from the presidency. She also lacks Palin's hardline right ideology which is the primary reason voters went for her. Simply sticking a minority/female in a position of power won't win over many people because it doesn't address the reasons they aren't voting for you.
 
Rice also has very strong ties to the last Bush presidency, which the Republicans were trying very hard to ignore this election.

Torqumada
 
The only way that a different VP would've helped Romney is if he picked a more moderate Republican. Even Rice would have been a bad choice for two reasons. One it would be really easy to remind the independent votes of the failings of Bush foreign policy which she would be the face of. Two it would be hard to sell a black woman to the Republican base, most would not want her to be a heartbeat away from the presidency. She also lacks Palin's hardline right ideology which is the primary reason voters went for her. Simply sticking a minority/female in a position of power won't win over many people because it doesn't address the reasons they aren't voting for you.

There tends to be this misconception that the Republicans voted race and would not support an African-American candidate under any circumstances. I really find this to be absolutely absurd. Yes, some people voted on the basis of race and race alone. And yes, most of these people voted for Romney (with a small number voting for the Constitution Party). But this was not the major reason that Republicans were strongly opposed to Obama. Consider the fact that some of the most Conservative states in the country elected Republican minorities as governor (Louisiana with Jindal and South Carolina with Haley) and one of the most Conservative districts in the country, located in Oklahoma, voted for J.C. Watts to be their Republican congressman. Michael Steele was a former RNC chairman, and his color didn’t prevent him from getting the position anymore than Colin Powell’s color precluded him from being Secretary of State under Bush. And you also seem to ignore the fact that Herman Cain nearly became the Republican nominee, and probably would have got the nod had he not been involved in a scandal involving infidelity and had he not revealed that when it came to foreign policy he had no idea what he was talking about. And finally, if you have any friends who are right wing conservatives, or self professed tea partiers, ask them what they think about Allen West. You will see that to them, he in considered the greatest thing since sliced bread.

A lot of liberals seem to think Republicans hate Obama simply because he is Black because they can’t understand why anyone would not love him as much as they do. But quite frankly, Republicans dislike Obama because (1) Obama is a left leaning democrat, and much, much more liberal than Bill Clinton was and (2) Republicans have in turn moved much, much farther to the right. This tends to amplify the differences between the two parties and widened the gap between them.

 
There tends to be this misconception that the Republicans voted race and would not support an African-American candidate under any circumstances. I really find this to be absolutely absurd. Yes, some people voted on the basis of race and race alone. And yes, most of these people voted for Romney (with a small number voting for the Constitution Party). But this was not the major reason that Republicans were strongly opposed to Obama. Consider the fact that some of the most Conservative states in the country elected Republican minorities as governor (Louisiana with Jindal and South Carolina with Haley) and one of the most Conservative districts in the country, located in Oklahoma, voted for J.C. Watts to be their Republican congressman. Michael Steele was a former RNC chairman, and his color didn’t prevent him from getting the position anymore than Colin Powell’s color precluded him from being Secretary of State under Bush. And you also seem to ignore the fact that Herman Cain nearly became the Republican nominee, and probably would have got the nod had he not been involved in a scandal involving infidelity and had he not revealed that when it came to foreign policy he had no idea what he was talking about. And finally, if you have any friends who are right wing conservatives, or self professed tea partiers, ask them what they think about Allen West. You will see that to them, he in considered the greatest thing since sliced bread.

A lot of liberals seem to think Republicans hate Obama simply because he is Black because they can’t understand why anyone would not love him as much as they do. But quite frankly, Republicans dislike Obama because (1) Obama is a left leaning democrat, and much, much more liberal than Bill Clinton was and (2) Republicans have in turn moved much, much farther to the right. This tends to amplify the differences between the two parties and widened the gap between them.

my point wasn't tat her race would be a factor, for a lot of the base, just some of it. My point was more that it wouldn't gain any political points. Simply trotting out blacks or women to votes to say "see we're not racist one of our friends is black" is very transparent. Pandering to an already alienated audience is not the way to win them over. A dialog has to be established that shows you can address issues that they see as impacting on their lives. This take longer then one election. My post was less about how the GOP is a little regressive when it comes to race and gender politics it was more how Rice would take more then she gave to the campaign. I was really trying to get more at the need for Romney to appeal to the more moderate base if he wanted to make it competitive.
 
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