WI: Romney-Cantor Ticket in 2012?

Mike Leavitt OTL was going to either be Chief of Staff or Treasury Secretary. Leavitt was the one putting together the cabinet-in-waiting.

Thinking about it, Mike Leavitt would be a strong contender to succeed Romney. By such a point he'd have been Governor of Utah, Chair of the National Governors Association, EPA Administrator, HHS Secretary, and either Treasury Secretary or Chief of Staff. Possibly another cabinet position as well.
 
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My reasoning is pretty much three-fold. In order to get Romney elected you need him to:

a) do better in the primaries - take the wind out of Santorum's sails at Iowa and you effectively break the anti-Romney candidates into smaller and smaller competition. With Romney riding the win from Iowa, he wins in South Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire, and does much better by Super Tuesday. As he does better, more and more of the anti-Romney candidates drop out and back him. As he approaches the convention (effectively a coronation), he has a unified party behind him which can deal with the anti-Romney ads the Obama campaign was putting out. With him doing better with a united party, Romney gets a boost in the polls;

b) use Cantor. He knows Virginia politically having served there since 1992. He'd be able to help organize Romney's Virginia campaign and make inroads with the suburban voter and the middle-class voter. His political appeal, at least for right now, is centered in Virginia; and

c) If Romney positions himself as a moderate-conservative, a competent businessman, and a man who saves companies and creates jobs, he has a chance at getting more of the moderate vote who might feel ambivalent towards him.

Cantor might be able to boost support (I think he will, but at worst it'll be a small one) from Evangelicals, but you also need Romney to do better. Obama was a candidate who was fairly vulnerable in 2012. If Romney goes into the election itself on better footing, he'll be able to position himself in a way seem more of a threat. Cantor has a role to play in expanding the GOP in suburban voters, especially in Virginia, and might stave off Virginia going blue for an election cycle or so. I don't think it's that implausible to see a three-point boost to Romney if he's got a united party behind him and a political talent who can help him with a key battleground state.

Keep the 47% comment from leaking, have Obama stumble in another debate (Romney was gaining steam between the first and second debate in October), and get rid of the "binders full of women" comment, I can see a 3% swing for Mitt.
I'm honestly not seeing it. This would require Cantor being super-effective, Romney's political decisions having no downsides, and generally having the Republicans getting perfect foresight.
 
I could see Zoellick there as Treasury Secretary. Michael Hayden as either SefDef or National Security Advisor.

Chief of Staff Leavitt it is.




https://www.politico.com/story/2012/08/whos-on-the-inside-track-for-a-romney-cabinet-080233

Some names mentioned are Glenn Hubbard (Fed or Treasury), Dan Senor (Deputy CoS or maybe NatSecAdvisor), Ed Gillespie (White House Counsel).


Romney was more interested in having a diverse cabinet reflecting the general public than Trump has been.

BET Chairman and CEO Debra Lee, HP CEO Meg Whitman, and Beth Myers (an aide/assistant going back to his time as Governor), were names that were mentioned. I think in that vein, Carly Fiorina, Linda McMahon, Betsy Devos, and Kay Bailey Hutchinson could potentially get positions. Beth Lindstrom too perhaps.

Racial diversity would be Romney's big challenge. There are many hispanic/latino Republicans, but black Republicans are far fewer.
 
Chief of Staff Leavitt it is.

https://www.politico.com/story/2012/08/whos-on-the-inside-track-for-a-romney-cabinet-080233

Some names mentioned are Glenn Hubbard (Fed or Treasury), Dan Senor (Deputy CoS or maybe NatSecAdvisor), Ed Gillespie (White House Counsel).

Romney was more interested in having a diverse cabinet reflecting the general public than Trump has been.

BET Chairman and CEO Debra Lee, HP CEO Meg Whitman, and Beth Myers (an aide/assistant going back to his time as Governor), were names that were mentioned. I think in that vein, Carly Fiorina, Linda McMahon, Betsy Devos, and Kay Bailey Hutchinson could potentially get positions. Beth Lindstrom too perhaps.

Racial diversity would be Romney's big challenge. There are many hispanic/latino Republicans, but black Republicans are far fewer.

Hubbard I'm not sure, Fed might work. Senor as Deputy CoS or Senior Advisor. Gillespie as White House Counsel would work.

Debra Lee as SBA Admin, Myers as Press Secretary, Hutchison for Commerce. Meg Whitman declined to work in government, but I could see Fiorina as an alternative. Not sure about DeVos or McMahon though, but the latter is certainly possible.

Romney might look at women, Hispanics, and religious minorities. For Black Cabinet members, there's always bipartisanship with Democrats.
 
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I forgot that Chao's guaranteed a good cabinet spot.
I'm pretty sure Romney didn't like Huntsman. I could see Lieberman getting UN.

Michelle Rhee and Janice Rogers Brown are good calls. Brown, I think the issue is that the GOP will want somebody young who will be on the bench a long time. She's 64 come 2013, a year younger than Clarence Thomas (who conservatives were already starting to try pressure to retire after Trump got elected). She's also not one of those people who is inclined to stay on the bench forever, given how she retired from the DC Court of Appeals (aka the Country's De Facto second highest court) in 2017. Although her age might dampen Democratic opposition to her. Her confirmation process would be some interesting politics.
 
I could see Leavitt at Homeland, with Hayden or Black at DNI or DCIA. I like the idea of a role for Healy. CoS could be good. Leavitt could certainly work there too. Maybe U.N. ambassador for Healy?
 
I forgot that Chao's guaranteed a good cabinet spot.
I'm pretty sure Romney didn't like Huntsman. I could see Lieberman getting UN.

Michelle Rhee and Janice Rogers Brown are good calls. Brown, I think the issue is that the GOP will want somebody young who will be on the bench a long time. She's 64 come 2013, a year younger than Clarence Thomas (who conservatives were already starting to try pressure to retire after Trump got elected). She's also not one of those people who is inclined to stay on the bench forever, given how she retired from the DC Court of Appeals (aka the Country's De Facto second highest court) in 2017. Although her age might dampen Democratic opposition to her. Her confirmation process would be some interesting politics.

Rhee for Education, Janice Rogers Brown for SCOTUS, Chao for Labor. There's also Richard J. Sullivan (2nd Circuit), Edith Brown Clement (5th Circuit), and Raymond Kethledge (6th Circuit) if you don't want JRB. I do think that JRB would be a good choice for Romney, and her age would likely dampen Democratic opposition.

I don't know how Romney felt about Huntsman, so it's possible. Lieberman would be a good choice for State, and a good bipartisan choice, but I feel like he'd be attacked by the Democrats.

I'm honestly not seeing it. This would require Cantor being super-effective, Romney's political decisions having no downsides, and generally having the Republicans getting perfect foresight.

It's a bit of a stretch, but I do still think it's doable. I think that Cantor would be effective in Virginia, he's already got fundraising networks in the state and would know the other GOP lawmakers there. Romney would have to pull his weight as well by countering the other anti-Romney candidates, though Obama did manage to pull of the youthful populist to pragmatic incumbent very well IOTL.
 
I think the Farrakhan photo surfacing would help Romney Cantor in ways it would not Romney Ryan.
I guess a mini conservative form of intersectionality?

An anti-white AND an anti-semitic bigot rolled up into one I guess benefits Cantor more than Ryan. Then again, I am pretty sure Farrakhan has called the Pope some nasty names in the past as well, so maybe its a wash.
 
As a Virginian, the big effect might not be on 2012, but on Virginia in 2013 and 2014. I'd know, I'm not only Virginian, but I live in Cantor's district and attend his synagogue.

Cantor may be enough to flip Virginia red again - one of the key swing districts that determine who wins Virginia in Presidential races is HIS district, coincidentally, my district. Henrico County trends Republican, and turnout in other parts of the state are higher, Virginia flips. Romney still loses, but the race is much closer.

Where things get interesting is Virginia politics - 2013 was were the Virginia GOP really started falling apart. The reason they're borderline impotent at the state level these days can be traced to three things:

1) Losing the Governor's race in 2013 when Ken Cuccinelli forced the GOP nod to go to him instead of Bill Bolling. Bolling was popular enough the Dems ran Terry McAuliffe as a "sacrificial" candidate, the deeply divisive Cuccinelli getting the nomination was what gave them the shot they needed to win.

2) Dave Brat unseating Eric Cantor. Cantor was popular in his district, and he was hardly the first candidate to ignore a primary race, or to underestimate the Tea Party's willingness to unseat a popular moderate Republican.

Not only did it unseat one of the Virginia GOP's leaders/favorite sons in favor of a glorified talk radio host, but one of the district's key groups of swing voters - ie, the Jews - never forgot or forgave Bratt for keeping Cantor from becoming the likely first Jewish Speaker of the House. Though the gutting of the VA GOP moderate wing didn't help either. Also, when Virginia's districts got redrawn, a firebreather (and a useless and powerless one at that) like Bratt was never going to keep control of the Virginia 7th District after they cut out a good chunk of his native Hanover County, which is why he lost it to Spanberger. Cantor on the other hand, would be able to hold it.

3) Corey ****ing Stewart. My god. The man has cost more Virginia Republicans their jobs than the end of Reconstruction.

Which is why, along with McDonnell's trial, why the Virginia GOP spent the 2010s in the wilderness. Only reason they're coming out now is the state Democrat's top three figures are either into wearing blackface or being investigated for sexual assault.

So let's say Eric Cantor rather than Paul Ryan is the VP nod in 2012. Whether he carries Virginia for the ticket or not - and I think he would - the effects on the Virginia GOP would be profound.

Cantor is now an even bigger figure in Virginia politics - with McDonnell's fall from grace, the biggest in the state. As such, he works to put his thumb on the scale for Bill Bolling to get the nod in 2013 - perhaps by pointing out to Cuccinelli that there's a Senate race next year he'd be better suited for. Thus, Bill Bolling wins handily the Virginia Governor's race in 2013, and in what turns out to be one of 2014's biggest shockers, Senator Mark Warner is defeated by Ken Cuccinelli, who ran with full state GOP backing and party funding, unlike Gillespie.

The increased profile nationally and locally after 2012 has another effect - the Tea Party groups that fueled Brat's primary challenge in OTL are now very split. Cantor isn't just some shmuck in Congress now, he's the former VP nominee, likely next speaker of the house, got Bolling elected and made good on helping Cuccinelli run for Senate, and there's even talk of a run in 2016. It's narrower than those 30 point leads shown in the polls, but Cantor fends off a primary challenge from Brat, only losing in Brat's native Hanover County. He cruises to re-election alongside the GOP wave of 2014 to nobody's surprise.

No, the BIGGEST shock of 2014 for the Virginia GOP though - with Speaker John Boehner stepping down, the gavel is going to Eric Cantor, making history as the highest-ranking Jewish-American to hold US elected office, something that briefly earns celebration from even the most liberal members of the Jewish Community. As the first Virginian to be Speaker of the House since the 1840s, and the first Virginian elected to a prominent national office since Woodrow Wilson, it also makes Cantor the unquestioned kingmaker within the Virginia GOP.

Outside of statistics, it helps that unlike Ryan, Cantor was a workhouse as a Representative - no sooner is he named the Speaker than he gets to work pushing bill after bill to the Senate, though a great deal of them die when they reach Obama's desk.

Of course, all of that might be put to the test with the 2016 election on the horizon - will Cantor run himself? He's popular, from a key swing state he may have delivered in 2012, and now one of the most prominent Republicans in America. The nomination may be his for the taking, but there are still rumors of several other key Republicans looking to run... hell, there's even chatter that Donald Trump of all people may run.

So, MASSIVE changes in Virginia politics, with some ripples eventually affecting things nationally.
 
As a Virginian, the big effect might not be on 2012, but on Virginia in 2013 and 2014. I'd know, I'm not only Virginian, but I live in Cantor's district and attend his synagogue.

That's amazing. Not just what you wrote, which gives a very personal view from a local and state level and is brilliantly necessary, but also the fact that you attended the same synagogue as Cantor. That's insane, I love it.
 
That's amazing. Not just what you wrote, which gives a very personal view from a local and state level and is brilliantly necessary, but also the fact that you attended the same synagogue as Cantor. That's insane, I love it.

For those curious?

Politics aside, Cantor is a nice guy, lovely family, if somewhat henpecked by both his wife and his mother. If you're ever in Richmond on a Saturday, you might see them going out as a family to this beloved local ice cream place called Gelati Celesti after shabbat lets out. According to Cantor, it's been a family tradition since his first child was born - his go-to order is either a scoop of Pralines and Cream or the Ukrops Rainbow cookie mix, when they have it.

You want to know what's insane? Running into a man who was one primary away from being the highest-ranking Jewish-American in US history getting ice cream cones for his family.
 
For those curious?

Politics aside, Cantor is a nice guy, lovely family, if somewhat henpecked by both his wife and his mother. If you're ever in Richmond on a Saturday, you might see them going out as a family to this beloved local ice cream place called Gelati Celesti after shabbat lets out. According to Cantor, it's been a family tradition since his first child was born - his go-to order is either a scoop of Pralines and Cream or the Ukrops Rainbow cookie mix, when they have it.

You want to know what's insane? Running into a man who was one primary away from being the highest-ranking Jewish-American in US history getting ice cream cones for his family.

Seriously, now you're teasing me. I'd love to meet him. The best I can do in terms of meeting anyone on his level is I once had a 20 minute conversation with Ari Fleischer (Dubya's press secretary, 2001-03). Turns out the synagogue I go to is the one he went to. He's hands down a brilliant guy, very intelligent, and a pretty nice guy.
 
FWIW, here is Romney's showing in each congressional district in VA in 2012 according to CQ's Politics in America 2014, p. 1011:

virginia-2012r.jpg



So Romney-Ryan carried Cantor's district (VA-07) 57-42, i.e. by fifteen points. The same day, Cantor defeated E. Wayne Powell to win re-election to Congress ny 58.4-41.4, i.e. by seventeen points. https://ballotpedia.org/E._Wayne_Powell In other words, Cantor only ran two points ahead of Romney in his district. This was a quite mediocre showing. Republicans lost the nationwide popular vote for the House by 1.2 percent in 2012 (but retained control thanks to favorable districting) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections whereas Romney lost the presidential race by 3.9 percent of the popular vote. In other words, in general, House Republican candidates were 2.7 percent ahead of Romney in their congressional districts--a better showing than Cantor made.

I think it very unlikely that someone who ran only two points ahead of Romney in his own district could help Romney narrow Obama's margin in VA as a whole by two points--let alone the four points necessary for Romney to carry the state. (Especially when this same congressman was one of only three Republicans who lost their primaries in 2014--somehow virtually no other Republican Representative that year was "caught napping" by the Tea Party. Sorry, I don't think that 2012 or 2014 point to Cantor as a great vote-winner for Romney in VA--even in Cantor's own district)

BTW, a poll in 2012 showed Cantor not helping Romney at all in VA. It showed 51-43 for Obama over Romney, the exact same 51-43 for Obama over Romney-McDonnell and "Obama would beat a Romney/Cantor ticket by a 52 percent-to-40 percent margin in Virginia, according to PPP, with Cantor’s negative net approval (27 percent favorable/41 percent unfavorable) as the anchor." https://augustafreepress.com/poll-obama-up-big-in-virginia/ Yes, PPP polling tends to favor Democrats, and in the end Obama carried VA by four points instead of eight, but there is no reason to doubt the poll's finding of the relative strength of a Romney-Cantor vs. Romney-non-Cantor ticket.

In any event, to show how little the idea was even considered: Googling, I get ten hits for "Romney-Cantor ticket" compared to 148 for "Romney-McDonnell ticket." If Romney was going to go with any Virginian, it would have been McDonnell.
 
Well, without the running mate stand Paul Ryan couldn't aspire to the Speaker seat. If Cantor survives the challenge he could become Speaker instead in this TL.

He probably does. Cantor was generally considered the overwhelming favorite to be Speaker of the House, especially as he lost his primary after Boehner decided to retire.

a Jewish member of the GOP establishment.

Part of the reason Cantor's defeat came as such a shock was that Cantor was generally not considered an "establishmenty" kind of guy - he was probably the least establishmenty person in House leadership.

Anyways, the primary outcome of this WI is to make Eric Cantor Speaker instead of Paul Ryan. I bet Romney would have done better without the albatross of the Path to Prosperity hanging over his neck, but obviously not enough to actually win.
 
He probably does. Cantor was generally considered the overwhelming favorite to be Speaker of the House, especially as he lost his primary after Boehner decided to retire.



Part of the reason Cantor's defeat came as such a shock was that Cantor was generally not considered an "establishmenty" kind of guy - he was probably the least establishmenty person in House leadership.

Anyways, the primary outcome of this WI is to make Eric Cantor Speaker instead of Paul Ryan. I bet Romney would have done better without the albatross of the Path to Prosperity hanging over his neck, but obviously not enough to actually win.
First Jewish Speaker of the House and the First African-American President of the United States within the same time frame. Cool.
 
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