WI: Romney-Cantor Ticket in 2012?

What if Mitt Romney would have selected House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia as his vice presidential nominee, instead of OTL's Paul Ryan? Would Cantor have helped in swinging Virginia away from Obama? Would Romney have won more of the Jewish vote?

The ticket probably loses, but would the national attention Cantor received have saved him from losing re-nomination against Dave Brat's primary challenge in 2014?
 
Last edited:
I don't think it changes any electoral votes, even Virginia's. Obama carried VA by almost four points, and Cantor after all did not represent VA as a whole but only one congressional district--note the similarity to Ryan's situation in WI!--where as it turns out he was not very popular. Even if Cantor had represented VA as a whole, he would be unlikely to boost Romney's vote in VA very much; in fact, some observers question whether a running mate adds anything to a presidential candidate's' percentage in the running mate's state--and even those who think there is such an advantage don't rate it as much more than two percent in large swing states. https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...d-carries-pa-but-not-fl.399756/#post-13269489
 
Well, without the running mate stand Paul Ryan couldn't aspire to the Speaker seat. If Cantor survives the challenge he could become Speaker instead in this TL.
 
A Mormon and a Jew?

GOP turnout is going to be awful. Romney might get some suburban Jewish voters, but he had a tough enough time OTL with SoCons who didn't trust him. Now, as far as a lot of people are concerned, it's a ticket with two not-christians.
 
What if Mitt Romney would have selected House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia as his vice presidential nominee, instead of OTL's Paul Ryan? Would Cantor have helped in swinging Virginia away from Obama? Would Romney have won more of the Jewish vote?

The ticket probably loses, but would the national attention Cantor received have saved him from losing re-nomination against Dave Brat's primary challenge in 2014?

Cantor is a pretty solid conservative, so him being on the ticket likely would have boosted Romney's conservative credentials especially among the Christian Right and social conservatives. It also would have been the first ticket to be made up of religious minorities (a Mormon and a Jew), and the second presidential ticket to have a Jewish Vice Presidential candidate. Cantor had done some pretty strong bipartisan legislative work and, if Romney pushes his moderate-conservative stances, he might have a chance as a center-right/right Republican candidate. Might being the operative word here.

I actually do think that Cantor would have helped Romney in Virginia, especially in the surrounding areas around the Shenandoah Valley and Richmond and the suburbs. I could even see the GOP looking at the suburbs more intensely as a result. Cantor would also be big in Florida with Jewish voters. In OTL, Romney pulled 30% of the Jewish vote compared to Obama's 69% pull and the 1% Other. With Cantor on the ticket, I think you would see some higher Jewish participation with the GOP but not by much. I'd be shocked by anything higher than a 5-point boost.

If Romney plays his cards right as a moderate-conservative, he could get some moderates to side with him compared to the 41% he got in OTL. Again, it wouldn't be much compared to OTL and I'd be shocked by anything more than 5%. Best guess, I'd say around 43-44%.
 
Who runs in 2016 and 2020 if Romney and Cantor actually win in 2012?

For the Democrats or Republicans?

For the Republicans, Cantor would be a natural successor. He'd be 49 if Romney won, and he's 56 right now. Young(-ish), conservative, (some) bipartisan appeal. A very prominent Republican figure, religious minority. However, I could see some Republicans campaigning against him - Rubio, Cruz, Scott Walker, Pataki, Jeb!. I'd be surprised if it was a large field though.

For the Democrats, it depends. I could see Clinton making a play for 2016. Sanders might run as well, with a fairly split party. I do think that even if Hillary runs, she'll lose but it'll be a close election. For 2020? No clue.
 
I can see a lot of fringe bigotry targeted at a Romney-Cantor administration. You've got a big finance guy from a religious minority that isn't trusted by a lot of Americans and a Jewish member of the GOP establishment. The Buchanans and Tancredos and Steve Stockmans of the world will be going wild.

Romney won't fully repeal Obamacare. He'll do stuff that lets him claim he repealed Obamacare, like end the individual mandate (probably replacing it with state-run high-risk insurance pools), give states more autonomy over how medicaid money is spent, and get rid of a bunch of things that insurance companies were required to do (ergolegalizing cheap or cheaper plans that covered a lot less).

But one of Romney's biggest criticism of Obamacare was... it cut Medicare spending. I'm very skeptical Romney will meaningfully reform entitlements. You might just see the GOP innovating around the law, like we sort of see OTL (think Rand Paul's push to legalize individuals coming together to collectively purchase insurance).

A lot of how a Romney-Cantor administration would go would depend on how Senate races go. If it's the same Senate outcome as OTL, then there's a clear check on the administration. If races in MO, IN, SD, and WI go differently (maybe even FL, if Jeb runs) then that's a very different matter.
 
I have some ideas for the Romney/Cantor cabinet:

Secretary of State: Zalmay Khalilzad
Secretary of the Treasury: Glenn Hubbard
Secretary of Defense: James G. Stavridis
Attorney General: Janice Rogers Brown
Secretary of the Interior: Raul Labrador
Secretary of Agriculture: Bruce Rastetter
Secretary of Commerce: Jon Huntsman, Jr.
Secretary of Labor: Victoria Lipnic
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Toby Cosgrove
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Anh "Joseph" Cao
Secretary of Transportation: Shirley Ybarra
Secretary of Energy:
Secretary of Education: Michelle Rhee
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Jim Webb
Secretary of Homeland Security:
White House Chief of Staff: Lanhee Chen?
United States Trade Representative:
Director of the Office of Management & Budget: Linda M. Springer
Director of National Intelligence: Peter Hoekstra
Director, Central Intelligence Agency: Gina Haspel
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Robert Grady
Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Jovita Carranza
Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors:
Ambassador to the United Nations:
 
Cantor did not serve for long and represented a big state

VA House of Delegates (1992-2001)
US House (2001-present)

Cantor is a well-known name in Virginia and David T said there’s as much as a 2point boost in swing states. Virginia, Florida, and Ohio are probably locked for the GOP.

I have some ideas for the Romney/Cantor cabinet:

It’s not bad.

Rogers Brown would probably be better on the Supreme Court, and Webb for SecVet is interesting. I could see McCain doing it if he wants to be involved with a Romney administration.
 
VA House of Delegates (1992-2001)
US House (2001-present)

Cantor is a well-known name in Virginia and David T said there’s as much as a 2point boost in swing states. Virginia, Florida, and Ohio are probably locked for the GOP.
Why? A two point swing wouldn’t even win Virginia. Maybe Florida swing with Jewish support but Ohio? At least Paul Ryan voted for the auto bailout.
 
This ticket isn't winning but it may make things closer.

Florida wasn't flipping, for what it's worth. That was won by having unusually high elderly black turnout, surpassing 2008. A few more Jewish Republican votes doesn't surpass that.

I wouldn't be so sure that Virginia doesn't at least have a chance to flip. Virginia saw a fair amount of pro Obama ticket splitting; Cantor at least knows the lay of the political land there and might be able to get Romneys pretty lousy organizational efforts there on track.

If you want to look for a Romney path to victory, honestly, it was the Trump path to victory of staking out hardline positions on trade and immigration in the Upper Midwest, OH, and PA. That is where he most narrowed the gap in the last few weeks using those ideas. Obama had to deploy Biden and Bill Clinton to hold on.

Now, this strategy has its pitfalls in that the GOP at the state level had not made its massive 2014 gains that helped so much in 2016 there, and Romney obviously was less talented and passionate on those topics, not to mention the slandering he had taken in the summer that made him seem particularly unlikely to take up that mantle. But they were the one bright spot he had after the first debate.
 
VA House of Delegates (1992-2001)
US House (2001-present)

Cantor is a well-known name in Virginia and David T said there’s as much as a 2point boost in swing states. Virginia, Florida, and Ohio are probably locked for the GOP.

Given that Obama carried VA by 3.88 points, a two or even three point gain from Cantor (which I doubt will occur--as Ryan shows, a running mate representing one congressional district doesn't help much in his state as a whole, even when, like Ryan, the congressman was popular with his party in the district--which as 2014 shows, Cantor was not) would not enable Romney to carry the state.

And why on earth is a Jew from Virginia more likely to help the ticket in Ohio than a Midwestern Catholic? Ohio is only 1.3 percent Jewish. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Ohio and Obama carried it in 2012 by 2.98 percent. I cannot understand at all your notion that Ohio is "locked in" for the GOP with Cantor...

Probably the one state I which it is plausible that Cantor could make a difference is FL, given the narrowness of Obama's victory there and the relatively large Jewish vote. But I'm doubtful even about that. Yes, Lieberman may have helped Gore with the Jewish vote in 2000, but the fact is that Kerry-Edwards did almost as well among Jewish voters as Gore-Lieberman ("only" 76 percent compared to 79 percent--and even that slight decline may be due less to there not being a Jew on the ticket as to Bush's 2004 image of being pro-Israel and tough on terrorism). https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-voting-record-in-u-s-presidential-elections In any event the percentage of Jews in Florida is not as high as many people think: 3.0% according to https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-population-in-the-united-states-by-state Granted, Jews are more likely to be voters than that number indicates, but even if Jews were 5 percent of Florida voters, for Romney to do marginally better (say, getting 35 percent of that five percent than 30 percent of it) would not be enough to overcome Obama's 0.88 percent edge in that state.

Also, remember that Ryan had been getting a lot of good publicity (much to the disgust of Paul Krugman) as a "thoughtful conservative policy wonk." It is very doubtful that Cantor was more popular with conservatives than Ryan in 2012.

Once again: it is only a sight exaggeration to say that "nobody votes for the Veep." https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2000/06/nobody-votes-for-the-veep.html
 
Why? A two point swing wouldn’t even win Virginia. Maybe Florida swing with Jewish support but Ohio? At least Paul Ryan voted for the auto bailout.
And why on earth is a Jew from Virginia more likely to help the ticket in Ohio than a Midwestern Catholic? Ohio is only 1.3 percent Jewish.

Ohio and Virginia are close enough that, with stronger Right support, Romney can tip those states. Plus, with Cantor having served in Virginia for nearly 20 years and who knows the area, he'd be able to organize Romney's VA campaign well enough to tip the state. Florida (less than 1%) is close enough that Cantor is a boon. I see those three states swinging to the GOP - 272 Obama/Biden, 266 Romney/Cantor.

Florida wasn't flipping, for what it's worth. That was won by having unusually high elderly black turnout, surpassing 2008. A few more Jewish Republican votes doesn't surpass that.

I disagree here. Florida was a very close election (50.01 to 49.1) and I think it's entirely possible that the Romney/Cantor ticket could swing Florida.

If you want to look for a Romney path to victory, honestly, it was the Trump path to victory of staking out hardline positions on trade and immigration in the Upper Midwest, OH, and PA. That is where he most narrowed the gap in the last few weeks using those ideas. Obama had to deploy Biden and Bill Clinton to hold on.

I agree that if Romney played his cards right, I think he'd win Pennsylvania. It'd be close (IOTL 51.9 to 46.5, I could see maybe a slight edge with both in the 49%s) but I think he could win PA.

I disagree with the 2016 playbook. Obama was an incumbent who was a very weak spot. If Romney does better in the Iowa primary, he takes the wind out of Santorum's sails. Romney, riding that Iowa win, and with a fractured anti-Romney GOP, sweeps NH, SC, FL and the remaining states ahead of Super Tuesday and unites the party before the convention. Unifying the party behind him puts him in a much better position to win.

Unifying the party means that Romney can define himself. One big weakness in OTL was he couldn't respond to the Obama campaign portraying him as some corporate vulture until he became the nominee at the Convention. ITTL, with the party behind him, he could very easily portray himself as the "get-it-done" businessman - create jobs, save companies, help the economy. Positive stories about his family and their philanthropic/charitable works would also work.

Now, this strategy has its pitfalls in that the GOP at the state level had not made its massive 2014 gains that helped so much in 2016 there, and Romney obviously was less talented and passionate on those topics, not to mention the slandering he had taken in the summer that made him seem particularly unlikely to take up that mantle. But they were the one bright spot he had after the first debate.

Now the issue is finding the right next state to tip in order to win. Colorado, Pennsylvania, Iowa. These are the big three that if I were the Romney campaign, I'd be looking at these. Romney nearly won Pennsylvania (IOTL it was 51.9 to 46.5) so he has a chance at tipping this. Iowa (51.9 to 46.1) and Colorado (51.4 to 46.1) are, with the right amount of work, in the realm of possibility. After the first presidential debate, 538 was projecting him to win Colorado.
 
Ohio and Virginia are close enough that, with stronger Right support, Romney can tip those states.

There's absolutely no evidence that Cantor was more popular among conservatives than Ryan was. On the contrary, it was conservatives who were pressing Romney to choose Ryan: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/10/...aul-ryan-to-be-mitt-romneys-running-mate.html

I don't know where you get the idea of the incredible political appeal of a guy who was one of only four Representatives to lose primaries in 2014. (The three others: John Tierney who was tarnished by scandal; Ralph Hall, who was 91 years old; and Kerry Bentivolio, who had been elected under odd circumstances in 2012. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Bentivolio)

(The idea that inadequate support from the Right cost Romney many votes is itself dubious: "Exit polls don’t back up the theory. Romney did better than McCain among conservative voters. He won roughly the same share of conservatives as George W. Bush did in 2004, the last time Republicans won the presidency — Bush won 84 percent and Romney won 82 percent. Nor was conservative turnout depressed. Conservatives made up 35 percent of the 2012 electorate, compared with 34 percent in 2004." https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...1fe7be-9ce0-11e4-96cc-e858eba91ced_story.html My main point however is that even if inadequate support from the Right was a problem for Romney, there is no reason to think that Cantor would solve it any better than Ryan did.)
 
Last edited:

My reasoning is pretty much three-fold. In order to get Romney elected you need him to:

a) do better in the primaries - take the wind out of Santorum's sails at Iowa and you effectively break the anti-Romney candidates into smaller and smaller competition. With Romney riding the win from Iowa, he wins in South Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire, and does much better by Super Tuesday. As he does better, more and more of the anti-Romney candidates drop out and back him. As he approaches the convention (effectively a coronation), he has a unified party behind him which can deal with the anti-Romney ads the Obama campaign was putting out. With him doing better with a united party, Romney gets a boost in the polls;

b) use Cantor. He knows Virginia politically having served there since 1992. He'd be able to help organize Romney's Virginia campaign and make inroads with the suburban voter and the middle-class voter. His political appeal, at least for right now, is centered in Virginia; and

c) If Romney positions himself as a moderate-conservative, a competent businessman, and a man who saves companies and creates jobs, he has a chance at getting more of the moderate vote who might feel ambivalent towards him.

Cantor might be able to boost support (I think he will, but at worst it'll be a small one) from Evangelicals, but you also need Romney to do better. Obama was a candidate who was fairly vulnerable in 2012. If Romney goes into the election itself on better footing, he'll be able to position himself in a way seem more of a threat. Cantor has a role to play in expanding the GOP in suburban voters, especially in Virginia, and might stave off Virginia going blue for an election cycle or so. I don't think it's that implausible to see a three-point boost to Romney if he's got a united party behind him and a political talent who can help him with a key battleground state.

Keep the 47% comment from leaking, have Obama stumble in another debate (Romney was gaining steam between the first and second debate in October), and get rid of the "binders full of women" comment, I can see a 3% swing for Mitt.
 
I have some ideas for the Romney/Cantor cabinet:

Secretary of State: Zalmay Khalilzad
Secretary of the Treasury: Glenn Hubbard
Secretary of Defense: James G. Stavridis
Attorney General: Janice Rogers Brown
Secretary of the Interior: Raul Labrador
Secretary of Agriculture: Bruce Rastetter
Secretary of Commerce: Jon Huntsman, Jr.
Secretary of Labor: Victoria Lipnic
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Toby Cosgrove
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Anh "Joseph" Cao
Secretary of Transportation: Shirley Ybarra
Secretary of Energy:
Secretary of Education: Michelle Rhee
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Jim Webb
Secretary of Homeland Security:
White House Chief of Staff: Lanhee Chen?
United States Trade Representative:
Director of the Office of Management & Budget: Linda M. Springer
Director of National Intelligence: Peter Hoekstra
Director, Central Intelligence Agency: Gina Haspel
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Robert Grady
Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Jovita Carranza
Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors:
Ambassador to the United Nations:

COS could also go to Mike Leavitt or Kerry Healey. Homeland Security could go to Michael Hayden or Cofer Black, both of whom worked on Romney's campaign. Carlos Gutierrez, a Bush Commerce Secretary and a Romney policy advisor could get Trade Rep. I doubt John Hoeven himself would have left the senate, but maybe someone from his office would get Secretary of Energy?
 
Top