WI Romeny wine 2008 GOP nomination?

POD: 2007. For some reason, Mike Huckabee doesn't run. Romney wins the Iowa caucus, goes on to win New Hampshire, and the GOP nomination.

For his VP, he selects the first female GOP VP nominee: Rep. Marsha Blackburn of TN.

Could Romney have done 6 points better than McCain, and won? Given how toxic the environment was for all Republicans, maybe not. But there are multiple reasons why Romney would have been a much stronger candidate against Obama:

1) Romney would not have been outspent 3-1 like McCain was

2) Romney would have been much harder to link to Bush

3) The GOP base hated McCain for his liberal stands on immigration, global warming, etc, they would have been more enthusiastic about Romney

4) Romney would not have been hurt as badly by the financial meltdown- in fact he might even have been helped by it, since he was clearly much more qualified to deal with the economy than Obama.

5) Romney would have almost certainly done much better against Obama in the debates.

6) Romney would not have shied away from bringing up Rev. Wright, and would have brought up Ayers much earlier when it didn't seem like a desperation move.

Etc...

I think Romney would have had a decent shot, and at least would have made it close.
 
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Romney would have had the better chance to win than McCain. Romney was much more knowledgable on the economy, he was able to turn around failed businesses. Though I wonder what effect, if any, his Mormon background would have had on his appeal with the conservative Evangelical vote. He also would have had a better chance without the pariah of Sarah Palin that initially invigorated the base but ultimately hurt McCain's chances to win. In the end Obama wins because of Bush, the economic meltdown, an unpopular war, and the "change" argument turned out to be pretty influencial.
 
Romney might have won but not being as moderate as McCain on immigration or global warming might pose some problems to Independent voters.
 
Romney has some strengths as you mentioned, but he has significant weaknesses too:

-He's a Mormon, and a lot of people don't like Mormons

-He'd been a Massachusetts liberal four years before

-His personality comes across as slimy and overly slick, and I think it would have turned off a lot of people. It would have been a lot harder for him to cast Obama as an elitist, and Obama could more easily have cast him as such.

-His newly acquired hardline stance on immigration would have driven Hispanics even more towards Obama.

-He'd defended Donald Rumsfeld's conduct of the Iraq War and had pledged to "doble Guantanamo" whatever the heck that means. I believe the American people would have been willing to elect a Hawk this year, just not an ultra-Hawk.

-Along those lines, the election could well have become a referendum on war with Iran, a referendum which, I garuntee you, the pro side was not going to win.
 
Romney has some strengths as you mentioned, but he has significant weaknesses too:

-He's a Mormon, and a lot of people don't like Mormons

-He'd been a Massachusetts liberal four years before

-His personality comes across as slimy and overly slick, and I think it would have turned off a lot of people. It would have been a lot harder for him to cast Obama as an elitist, and Obama could more easily have cast him as such.

-His newly acquired hardline stance on immigration would have driven Hispanics even more towards Obama.

-He'd defended Donald Rumsfeld's conduct of the Iraq War and had pledged to "doble Guantanamo" whatever the heck that means. I believe the American people would have been willing to elect a Hawk this year, just not an ultra-Hawk.

-Along those lines, the election could well have become a referendum on war with Iran, a referendum which, I garuntee you, the pro side was not going to win.

Romney is not insane and wouldn't have supported war with Iran.
 

Nikephoros

Banned
Romney might have won but not being as moderate as McCain on immigration or global warming might pose some problems to Independent voters.

I think that as a whole, the election had VERY little to do with those two issues. If the economy goes the way of OTL, then Romney's knowledge of business should help him greatly in the debates, even though the debates might not have mattered.

I my mind the two main reasons that Obama won the election was the economy and Bush. Romney could have possibly negated those two. 1.: He seems to have a good grasp of how to fix failing businesses. 2.: By not being in the US Congress Romney has a better chance to avoid the Bush mantle (though being a Republican would still link him, to an extent)

He might also score points for having been a Republican governor of a solidly Democratic state.
 

Nikephoros

Banned
Romney has some strengths as you mentioned, but he has significant weaknesses too:

-He's a Mormon, and a lot of people don't like Mormons

-He'd been a Massachusetts liberal four years before

-His personality comes across as slimy and overly slick, and I think it would have turned off a lot of people. It would have been a lot harder for him to cast Obama as an elitist, and Obama could more easily have cast him as such.

-His newly acquired hardline stance on immigration would have driven Hispanics even more towards Obama.

-He'd defended Donald Rumsfeld's conduct of the Iraq War and had pledged to "doble Guantanamo" whatever the heck that means. I believe the American people would have been willing to elect a Hawk this year, just not an ultra-Hawk.

-Along those lines, the election could well have become a referendum on war with Iran, a referendum which, I garuntee you, the pro side was not going to win.

I can tell that you hate Romney and Republicans.
 
I think that as a whole, the election had VERY little to do with those two issues. If the economy goes the way of OTL, then Romney's knowledge of business should help him greatly in the debates, even though the debates might not have mattered.

I my mind the two main reasons that Obama won the election was the economy and Bush. Romney could have possibly negated those two. 1.: He seems to have a good grasp of how to fix failing businesses. 2.: By not being in the US Congress Romney has a better chance to avoid the Bush mantle (though being a Republican would still link him, to an extent)

He might also score points for having been a Republican governor of a solidly Democratic state.

There may also have been controversy over flip-flops at least before the economy took center stage by then which may have severely damaged Romney's credibility.
 
Romney might have won but not being as moderate as McCain on immigration or global warming might pose some problems to Independent voters.

Actually on immigration, a lot more independents agreed with Romney's position than McCain's. Amnesty for illegals isn't popular with anybody except liberal voters, who were never going to vote for the Republican anyway.
 

Nikephoros

Banned
Actually on immigration, a lot more independents agreed with Romney's position than McCain's. Amnesty for illegals isn't popular with anybody except liberal voters, who were never going to vote for the Republican anyway.

Care to provide polling data? (I believe you, ...but...)
 
Romney has some strengths as you mentioned, but he has significant weaknesses too:

-He's a Mormon, and a lot of people don't like Mormons

This is basically what cost him the nomination, Huckabee exploiting anti-Mormon sentiment in Iowa. It wouldn't have been nearly as big a problem in the general election tho. Most of the people who wouldn't vote for a Mormon, live in deep red states in the south, where Romney could afford to lose them. OTOH, his Mormonism would be a net plus in the swing states of Nevada and Colorado.

-He'd been a Massachusetts liberal four years before
Again, more of a problem for the primaries than the general.

-His personality comes across as slimy and overly slick, and I think it would have turned off a lot of people. It would have been a lot harder for him to cast Obama as an elitist, and Obama could more easily have cast him as such.
McCain couldn't effectively cast Obama as an elitist either, after the seven houses thing, so no difference there.

-His newly acquired hardline stance on immigration would have driven Hispanics even more towards Obama.
Hard to see how Romney could have done much worse among Hispanics than McCain. OTOH, Romney would have picked up the votes from conservatives who stayed home in OTL, because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for the author of McCain-Kennedy.

McCain's candidacy was the ultimate test of the Rovian theory that the GOP can win Hispanic votes by supporting amnesty, and it was an epic fail. The fact is that Republicans will never out-pander Dems on the immigration issue.

-He'd defended Donald Rumsfeld's conduct of the Iraq War and had pledged to "doble Guantanamo" whatever the heck that means. I believe the American people would have been willing to elect a Hawk this year, just not an ultra-Hawk.

-Along those lines, the election could well have become a referendum on war with Iran, a referendum which, I garuntee you, the pro side was not going to win.
I don't see how hawkishness and Iran would have been a bigger issue with Romney than McCain. McCain was the ultra-hawk in the race.
 
This is basically what cost him the nomination, Huckabee exploiting anti-Mormon sentiment in Iowa. It wouldn't have been nearly as big a problem in the general election tho. Most of the people who wouldn't vote for a Mormon, live in deep red states in the south, where Romney could afford to lose them. OTOH, his Mormonism would be a net plus in the swing states of Nevada and Colorado.

Again, more of a problem for the primaries than the general.

McCain couldn't effectively cast Obama as an elitist either, after the seven houses thing, so no difference there.

Hard to see how Romney could have done much worse among Hispanics than McCain. OTOH, Romney would have picked up the votes from conservatives who stayed home in OTL, because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for the author of McCain-Kennedy.

McCain's candidacy was the ultimate test of the Rovian theory that the GOP can win Hispanic votes by supporting amnesty, and it was an epic fail. The fact is that Republicans will never out-pander Dems on the immigration issue.

I don't see how hawkishness and Iran would have been a bigger issue with Romney than McCain. McCain was the ultra-hawk in the race.

The main reason my McCain lost the Hispanic vote is because of the economic crisis. McCain probably would have done better with Hispanic voters without the recession.
 
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