WI: Rome sacked in 82BC?

This is a What if that intrigues me greatly: but one I only heard of yesterday. In 82BC, a Samnite army came within the very suburbs of Rome, and almost took the undefended city, but was repulsed by the armies of Sulla and Crassus, after a very close fought battle. The POD is that Crassus' attempt to shatter the Samnite flank somehow fails, and Sulla and Crassus are defeated. The Samnites then march into hated Rome, and burn the seat of the Republic to the ground.

What happens next? There are several large Roman forces about, but this disaster comes at a very opportune time for the Republic's enemies: Gaul is increasingly advancing and centralising, Mithridates the Great still rules Pontus, and even the Seleucids and Ptolemies still posess the resources for a possible resurgence. How does the next century play out?
 
You sure about this? I don't have any good sources on hand right now, but this sounds a bit off. Samnite power was more or less broken in the third century BCE, IIRC, although they hung around in some form or other for a while.

I think you are referring to the battle of the Colline gate, an engagement near the end of Sulla's rise to power. The samnites were acting on the behalf of marius the younger, who was besieged in praeneste at the time. The samnites are not fighting rome for vengeance (although I suppose that that might be a factor), but because it is in their interests for the populares under marius to defeat Sulla and the Optimates (they are also one part of the army, IIRC).

A Sullan defeat at the colline gate probably does not mean the sack of rome, which would mean a huge backlash against them and their allies (and sacking would probably not mean the utter destruction of rome, nor of its empire, although the consequences would be severe). Rather, the Populares are reinvigorated. The question is whether they can win convincingly enough, and follow up thoroughly enough, to finish sulla. if so, the consequences will be interesting...
 
The defeat of Sulla at the gates of Rome itself would have a huge impact. No Sulla means no proscriptions, so a large number of senators, equites and proconsuls survive into the Republic, which would strengthen the structure of the Republic. In addition if Sulla was defeated then Gnaeus Pompeius and Marcus Crassus would go down with him - taking down two of the most powerful members of the First Triumvirate (Caesar was initially the weakest of the three and relied on them to gain influence). What a shame! :D
 
[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]Remember that during the battle of the Colline Gate, Marius the younger is held up in [/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, serif]Praeneste, and the war was more or less lost for the mariaii. The Samniets had be one of the most aggressive groups during the recent Socii war. They also only marched on Rome after they wear unsuccessful in reliving Marius the younger. It is not unlikely that the Samniets by this point wanted to destroy Rome. They still had the largest military strength in Italy after Rome. And Carbo has already left Italy. No Sulla means no proscriptions is stiff toilet paper. Marius and his son both started killing of anybody who wear perceived as a possible enemy. Sulla at least did it legally, well more or less.[/FONT]
 
This timeline cannot work, because the last chance for Italics defeating Rome was the war of 91 to 88 BC, when the socii fought against Rome because they didn´t get the roman citizenship. Sorry.:confused:
 
This timeline cannot work, because the last chance for Italics defeating Rome was the war of 91 to 88 BC, when the socii fought against Rome because they didn´t get the roman citizenship. Sorry.:confused:

I wouldn't have just made up the POD, my friend. Check out the link. ;). The Social War actually only ended with the final surrender of Nola in 80BC (I think). Though I agree that the main part of the fighting was over much earlier than this.
 
[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]He has a point thought, this is too late for an italic confederation to take the place of Rome.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]The [/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, serif]Samnites[/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, serif] might sack Rome, but how much damage can they doe? The city has a pop of around 2-2,5 mil. [/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]The size of the [/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, serif]Samnites[/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, serif]force was around 70.000-90.000 IIRC. This before any loses.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]And there are still large Roman forces in or close to Italy Still young Marius and Carbo are done for. And now Sulla and Crasuss are dead. Who takes command? If the Samnites kill every senator they can get their hands one, there might not be enough left to form a qurom. Ergo the senat can not function. So a Demagogue will arise or somebody will get themselves named Dictator. The question is whom. [/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]No Sulla, Crasuss, Young Marius, or Carbo.[/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, serif]I am unsure if Metellus Pius, Lucullus or Pompey wear at the Colline gate. Phillipus is at Sardinia and Sertorius is in Spain. So Sertorius becomes the first man in Rome? He has the military skill at least, and was a legat of Gaius Marius. Also Pomey is too young still, he is only 22-23[/FONT]
 
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This is a What if that intrigues me greatly: but one I only heard of yesterday. In 82BC, a Samnite army came within the very suburbs of Rome, and almost took the undefended city, but was repulsed by the armies of Sulla and Crassus, after a very close fought battle. The POD is that Crassus' attempt to shatter the Samnite flank somehow fails, and Sulla and Crassus are defeated. The Samnites then march into hated Rome, and burn the seat of the Republic to the ground.

It is unlikely that that Samnite/Lucanian/Capuan army would actually endeavor to destroy urbs Roma. The Samnites were ostensibly in alliance with the Marian faction, and only marched on Rome because they had failed to relieve Gaius Marius Minor at Præneste. Several prominent Marians and Carboan loyalists and the remnants of their legions fought at the Colline Gate, among the Brutus Damasippus, Carrinas and Censorinus. It is extremely doubtful that they would consent to a Samnite destruction of the city. Most probably the Samnites would simply demand autonomy and independence for Samnium and other regions of southern Italia. Even if Sulla and Crassus are defeated at the Colline Gate, they still have large reserves of troops, under Quintus Lucretius Ofella besieging Præneste and under Quintus Cæcilius Metellus Pius and Varro Lucullus in Italian Gaul. It was simply the urgency of defeating the Samnites before they attacked Rome that forced Sulla to fight with such numerically inferior forces, when in reality, by late 82 BC the Marians were disintegrating and Sulla held overall superiority.

What happens next? There are several large Roman forces about, but this disaster comes at a very opportune time for the Republic's enemies: Gaul is increasingly advancing and centralising, Mithridates the Great still rules Pontus, and even the Seleucids and Ptolemies still posess the resources for a possible resurgence. How does the next century play out?
I’m afraid I don’t see Gaul developing radically differently then it did historically, but then that is hardly my area of expertise, so I can’t comment on it with any confidence.

Mithridates VI would most likely take the opportunity to overturn the terms of the treaty of Dardanus, seek to re-occupy Cappadocia and Cilicia, as well as the rest of Asia Minor, although Pontus probably does not have the strength for another full-scale invasion of Greece proper for a couple of decades.

The Seleucid Empire is finished. Tigranes marched into Syria and occupied Antioch in 83 BC, reducing Syria to a de-facto Armenian satrapy. On a few cities continued to hold out to Seleucid pretender Seleukos VII Philometor ‘Kybiosaktes’, and Antiokhos XIII Dionysos ‘Asiatikos’ was simply a Roman puppet installed by L. Licinius Lucullus, and also creature of the local Arab chieftains. Any Seleucid resurgence post the defeat and death of Antiokhos VII Sidetes in the Parthian campaign of 129 BC is altogether implausible.

A Ptolemaic resurgence is more probable, although by the 80’s BC Ptolemaic Egypt was largely dependent on the Roman Republic to ensure its security from threats like Tigranes of Armenia. It is possible that should Rome’s strategic commitment in the east substantially decline, the Ptolemies might again be forced to secure their borders in Syria Coele, although it is difficult to speculate whether they could extricate themselves from the dynastic decadence they had declined to.

The defeat of Sulla at the gates of Rome itself would have a huge impact. No Sulla means no proscriptions, so a large number of senators, equites and proconsuls survive into the Republic, which would strengthen the structure of the Republic. In addition if Sulla was defeated then Gnaeus Pompeius and Marcus Crassus would go down with him - taking down two of the most powerful members of the First Triumvirate (Caesar was initially the weakest of the three and relied on them to gain influence). What a shame! :D
On the contrary. The Sullan proscriptions and the Sullan ‘terror’ at least had some method and purpose, and in any case mainly targeted the equites and wealthy citizens of the second and third classes, the main supporters of the Marian faction, and not the senatorial aristocracy. If the Marians and the Samnites were to triumph at the Colline Gate, one would most likely see a sort of revolutionary terror of unprecedented proportions, quite similar to how the Parisian bourgeoisie reacted against the Louis XVI and the aristocracy and the First Estate in the French Revolution. Following his defeat at Sacriportus, Gaius Marius the younger directed Brutus Damasippus to purge Rome of the remaining suspected Sullan sympathizers. Among the dead were Quintus Mucius Scævola Pontifex Maximus, Lucius Domitius Ahenobarbus, Publius Antistius Vetus and Carbo Arvina. If the Marian party triumphs, the most vicious elements of the populares faction will be unleashed, resulting in a purge probably quite similar to the Sullan terror, but lacking in structured purpose, and also probably quite more violent and deadly. One could also see parallels in Gaius Marius ‘march on Rome’ and coup d’état during his seventh consulship, when his supporters instigated a drastic purge of the optimate aristocrats and Sullan supporters.
 
Good point - I'd forgotten about Gaius Marius the Younger. Humph. No matter what happens there will still be proscriptions. But what about the loss in battle of Crassus and Pompeius?
 
Pomey is in Sardinia IIRC, after that he whent to Sicilly and then African.
Carbo has fleed his army and in OTL pompey found and killed him in Sicilly.

The best Marian left by now is Quintus Sertorius, who has already left for Spain.
 
It is unlikely that that Samnite/Lucanian/Capuan army would actually endeavor to destroy urbs Roma. The Samnites were ostensibly in alliance with the Marian faction, and only marched on Rome because they had failed to relieve Gaius Marius Minor at Præneste. Several prominent Marians and Carboan loyalists and the remnants of their legions fought at the Colline Gate, among the Brutus Damasippus, Carrinas and Censorinus. It is extremely doubtful that they would consent to a Samnite destruction of the city.
See Velleius Paterculus at
http://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Velleius_Paterculus/2A*.html

Velleius Paterculus said:
2 In order that nothing should be lacking to the calamities of the state, in Rome, a city in which there had already been rivalry in virtues, there was now a rivalry in crimes, and that man now regarded himself as the best citizen who had formerly been the worst. While the battle was being fought at Sacriportus, within the city the praetor Damasippus murdered in the Curia Hostilia, as supposed partisans of Sulla, Domitius, a man of consular rank; Scaevola Mucius, pontifex maximus and famous author of works on religious and civil law; Gaius Carbo, a former praetor, and brother of the consul, and Antistius, a former aedile. 3 May Calpurnia, the daughter of Bestia and wife of Antistius, never lose the glory of a noble deed; for, when her husband was put to death, as I have just said, she pierced her own breast with the sword. What increment has his glory and fame received through this brave act of a woman! and yet his own name is by no means obscure.
27 While Carbo and Marius were still consuls, one hundred and nine years ago, on the Kalends of November, Pontius Telesinus, a Samnite chief, brave in spirit and in action and hating to the core the p107very name of Rome, having collected about him forty thousand of the bravest and most steadfast youth who still persisted in retaining arms, fought with Sulla, near the Colline gate, a battle so critical as to bring both Sulla and the city into the gravest peril. 2 Rome had not faced a greater danger when she saw the camp of Hannibal within the third milestone, than on this day when Telesinus went about from rank to rank exclaiming: "The last day is at hand for the Romans," and in a loud voice exhorted his men to overthrow and destroy their city, adding: "These wolves that made such ravages upon Italian liberty will never vanish until we have cut down the forest that harbours them." 3 It was only after the first hour of the night that the Roman army was able to recover its breath, and the enemy retired.

Precisely how did Damasippus, Carrinas and Censorinus, and the rank and file Populares in the Samnite army react to the resolve to destroy their hometown? Presumably they would receive the citizenship of Italy, or individual Samnite cities, and be resettled there, but destruction of Rome meant loss of real property, friends and social networks for them. Did not the announced plan to destroy Rome induce them to defect to Sulla? Or had they actually consulted the Samnites beforehand and assented to the destruction of Rome?

The forces of Roman Populares were by 1st of November heavily depleted. Marius was under siege in Praeneste with a small force, Carbo had fled Italy by sea, Sertorius had a force that was to hold out but was away in Spain, and Damasippus was at Colline Gate but with a force far outnumbered by Samnites. This could tend to make the Samnites the dominant partner in the Populare/Samnite alliance, able to dictate terms.

Even if Sulla and Crassus are defeated at the Colline Gate, they still have large reserves of troops, under Quintus Lucretius Ofella besieging Præneste and under Quintus Cæcilius Metellus Pius and Varro Lucullus in Italian Gaul. It was simply the urgency of defeating the Samnites before they attacked Rome that forced Sulla to fight with such numerically inferior forces, when in reality, by late 82 BC the Marians were disintegrating and Sulla held overall superiority.
The remaining Populare forces I listed. Now, to the Optimate leaders.

For the point of view of Marians, Pontius Telesinus had just managed to split one main force of Sulla and destroy one piece. The rest of Sulla´s forces are intact - Ofella´s besieging army, Metellus Pius and Varro Lucullus in Gaul, Pompeius Magnus where?

Dealing with Ofella will be easy in the terms of relieving Marius in Praeneste, because unless Ofella lifts the siege for a quick retreat then Samnites can probably destroy the siege camp before Metellus and Varro can come to join Ofella. But if Ofella does retreat then he stands a fair chance of retreating to Metellus and Varro... I suspect.

The Marians are facing scattered and leaderless Optimate forces who still stand the chance to fight and win. Therefore the question on how to defeat them piecemeal OR induce them to surrender by political compromise will be very important for Pontius Telesinus and Brutus Damasippus, and Marius when they extricate him from Praeneste. What approach will they attempt?

On the contrary. The Sullan proscriptions and the Sullan ‘terror’ at least had some method and purpose, and in any case mainly targeted the equites and wealthy citizens of the second and third classes, the main supporters of the Marian faction, and not the senatorial aristocracy. If the Marians and the Samnites were to triumph at the Colline Gate, one would most likely see a sort of revolutionary terror of unprecedented proportions, quite similar to how the Parisian bourgeoisie reacted against the Louis XVI and the aristocracy and the First Estate in the French Revolution. Following his defeat at Sacriportus, Gaius Marius the younger directed Brutus Damasippus to purge Rome of the remaining suspected Sullan sympathizers. Among the dead were Quintus Mucius Scævola Pontifex Maximus, Lucius Domitius Ahenobarbus, Publius Antistius Vetus and Carbo Arvina. If the Marian party triumphs, the most vicious elements of the populares faction will be unleashed, resulting in a purge probably quite similar to the Sullan terror, but lacking in structured purpose, and also probably quite more violent and deadly. One could also see parallels in Gaius Marius ‘march on Rome’ and coup d’état during his seventh consulship, when his supporters instigated a drastic purge of the optimate aristocrats and Sullan supporters.

I do not quite see why Marius or Telesinus cannot decide on a structured, purposeful programme of terror. What matters is what the structure is.
 
At most, the Samnites would have engaged in heavy looting and pillaging, with only relatively mild destruction. Marian power base was among the urban equites and citizens of the first and second classes. To imagine that the Marians would have consented to a possible Samnite destruction of the city is impossible and absurd. As I stated earlier, at most the Samnites, Lucanians and Capuans would demand some form of autonomy or independence, or some sort of special citizenship status.

Now, as to the continuing conduct of the war, regardless of whether the Marian populares and the Samnites defeat Sulla and Crassus and the Colline Gate, the war is still effectively lost for them. The Marian high command is completely demoralized -- Carbo and Marcus Junius Brutus have already deserted, Quintus Sertories has fled to the Spains, Albinovanus the Lucanian has murdered his legates and defected to Sulla, and Marius the younger and the remnants of his legions are penned up in Praeneste by Lucretius Ofella. The remaining Marian diehards -- Brutus Damasippus, Marcius Censorinus, and Carrinas are openly allied with the Samnite rebellion.

The optimates still have, presumably, the remnants of Sulla's and Crassus' forces, Ofella legions in Praeneste, Metellus Pius and Varro Lucullus in Italian Gaul, Pompeius Magnus' veteran legions in Sicily, Philipppus in Sardinia, and the occupation forces in the east under L. Licinius Lucullus. The legions and the porta Collina were only a small, hastily-assembled fraction of the Sullan armies, mustered to defeat the Samnites before they could seize Rome.

If Crassus' wing is broken and Sulla defeated (although not necessarily killed, that in itself would be somewhat improbable), leadership of the Sullan faction would most likely devolve to the Metellus Pius, or Servilius Vatia. The Samnites would sack Rome, and go to ground in their strongholds in southern Latium and Campania, while the Sullan party concentrates its armies on re-occupying Rome, and eliminating the Samnite rebellion. The Marians would still most probably lose, with the only consequence of greater devastation for Rome and Italy.

I do not quite see why Marius or Telesinus cannot decide on a structured, purposeful programme of terror. What matters is what the structure is.

Because Lucius Cornelius Sulla instigated the proscriptions with the position of unquestionable leader of the optimate faction, and the unprecedented powers of the office of dictator. Pontius Telesinus won't be interested in a controlled purge, but simply in muder, pillage and rapine. The Marian leadership is in shambles: Carbo has deserted, the Marian die-hards lack an unquestionable leader, and Marius Minor is little more then an inept puppet.
 
At most, the Samnites would have engaged in heavy looting and pillaging, with only relatively mild destruction. Marian power base was among the urban equites and citizens of the first and second classes. To imagine that the Marians would have consented to a possible Samnite destruction of the city is impossible and absurd.
Then what WERE the Marians thinking when Pontius Telesinus proclaimed his commitment to destroy the city?
As I stated earlier, at most the Samnites, Lucanians and Capuans would demand some form of autonomy or independence, or some sort of special citizenship status.

Now, as to the continuing conduct of the war, regardless of whether the Marian populares and the Samnites defeat Sulla and Crassus and the Colline Gate, the war is still effectively lost for them. The Marian high command is completely demoralized -- Carbo and Marcus Junius Brutus have already deserted, Quintus Sertories has fled to the Spains, Albinovanus the Lucanian has murdered his legates and defected to Sulla, and Marius the younger and the remnants of his legions are penned up in Praeneste by Lucretius Ofella. The remaining Marian diehards -- Brutus Damasippus, Marcius Censorinus, and Carrinas are openly allied with the Samnite rebellion.

The optimates still have, presumably, the remnants of Sulla's and Crassus' forces, Ofella legions in Praeneste, Metellus Pius and Varro Lucullus in Italian Gaul, Pompeius Magnus' veteran legions in Sicily, Philipppus in Sardinia, and the occupation forces in the east under L. Licinius Lucullus. The legions and the porta Collina were only a small, hastily-assembled fraction of the Sullan armies, mustered to defeat the Samnites before they could seize Rome.

If Crassus' wing is broken and Sulla defeated (although not necessarily killed, that in itself would be somewhat improbable)
To the contrary, it is highly probable.

In OTL, he barely escaped alive when his wing was routed. It would not take a big butterfly to have Sulla killed an battle and Crassus winning the battle anyway.
, leadership of the Sullan faction would most likely devolve to the Metellus Pius, or Servilius Vatia. The Samnites would sack Rome, and go to ground in their strongholds in southern Latium and Campania, while the Sullan party concentrates its armies on re-occupying Rome, and eliminating the Samnite rebellion. The Marians would still most probably lose, with the only consequence of greater devastation for Rome and Italy.



Because Lucius Cornelius Sulla instigated the proscriptions with the position of unquestionable leader of the optimate faction, and the unprecedented powers of the office of dictator. Pontius Telesinus won't be interested in a controlled purge, but simply in muder, pillage and rapine. The Marian leadership is in shambles: Carbo has deserted, the Marian die-hards lack an unquestionable leader, and Marius Minor is little more then an inept puppet.

I do not quite see why Pontius would limit his goals to limited amount of murder and pillage and retreating to Samnium. He and the rest of Samnite leadership would realize that if the war goes on indefinitely, Rome would simply come back and attack Samnium again, as they did after Second and Third Samnite Wars and Second Punic War.

They have to deal with Roman Republic - either by militarily crushing the remaining Roman field armies (Metellus Pius in Gaul) in which case they could safely demolish the city of Rome and resettle the Marian collaborationists in Samnite cities, or else by some sort of political compromise whereby Optimate leaders would be subjected to controlled purge and the legions could surrender to Marians and go home.
 
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