WI: Rome defeated during the Second Punic War

By 207 Hannibal had been in Italy for over a decade. If after an entire decade of rampaging, they were still loyal enough. That's beyond impressive.
Again, this is not in dispute. But by 207 the outcome of the war was nowhere near resolved.


Also @RodentRevolution Cannae was hardly the last time Hannibal won a battle against the Romans and it wasnhardlg the last time a Roman general was goaded into recklessness. The point is, if Hannibal wanted to destroy the half consular army in front of him, he could have. Nero would possibly be kept unaware of this as he rushes north to take on Hasdrubal and the two could likely trap him, as Hannibal has done on numerous occasions. Nero was a bit reckless himself (as this entire gamble is evidence of).

You guys are pointing to the ability of Rome to whether a decade of Hannibal in Italy but then ignoring what position Rome was actually in. They needed a victory, and a decisive one. They got it at Metaurus.
 
You guys are pointing to the ability of Rome to whether a decade of Hannibal in Italy but then ignoring what position Rome was actually in. They needed a victory, and a decisive one. They got it at Metaurus.

Victorious in Spain and on the offensive in Italy Rome was winning the war. You forget the reason Hasdrubal Barca was marching to Italy was because he had been beaten in Spain. Meanwhile in addition to Nero and Livius's armies additional Roman armies were grinding the various allies of Hannibal out of existence one garrison at a time. Tarentum for example had fallen to Fabius the year before.

As to Hannibal's other victories post Cannae it is notable they all involved luring Roman forces out of position and into an ambush...the ambush was vital even a straight up fight where the likes of Marcellus was beaten on the second day at Carnisium he was still able to give battle and this time throw Hannibal back on the next. That second day notably appears to have been the result of a Roman legion getting into a muddle trying to assist allies on the flank.

Goddamnit I keep confusing Hamilcar and Hasdrubal. I hate Carthaginian names.

I have total sympathy for this, especially as Hasdrubal Barca was far from the only Hasdrubal to hold command in the Second Punic War which really does not help.
 

tenthring

Banned
Victorious in Spain and on the offensive in Italy Rome was winning the war. You forget the reason Hasdrubal Barca was marching to Italy was because he had been beaten in Spain. Meanwhile in addition to Nero and Livius's armies additional Roman armies were grinding the various allies of Hannibal out of existence one garrison at a time. Tarentum for example had fallen to Fabius the year before.

As to Hannibal's other victories post Cannae it is notable they all involved luring Roman forces out of position and into an ambush...the ambush was vital even a straight up fight where the likes of Marcellus was beaten on the second day at Carnisium he was still able to give battle and this time throw Hannibal back on the next. That second day notably appears to have been the result of a Roman legion getting into a muddle trying to assist allies on the flank.

+1

207 BC is kind of like 1942 for the allies. You've got way more resources. The Blitzkrieg failed. If you back away and take an objective look at things your winning the war. Technically, if your willing to fight total war in perpetuity its basically impossible for the other side to win. But they have ground you down, and they can still beat you in battle, and one last disaster might hurt really bad. Bad enough that someone in the coalition decides to just throw in the towel. Or makes an unforced error that truly changes things.

As it stands Rome won its Stalingrad. Had it lost it would have been like the USSR losing at Stalingrad. It doesn't force the end in and of itself, but it could change the outcome.
 
I'm not all that familiar with the war, but from what I've read on here, perhaps killing off some critical Roman leaders early on might tilt the balance... say, Fabius, Marcellus, the younger Scipio?
 
I'm not all that familiar with the war, but from what I've read on here, perhaps killing off some critical Roman leaders early on might tilt the balance... say, Fabius, Marcellus, the younger Scipio?

It is always going to be hard to say for sure but probably not. It has been suggested, by Livy I believe, that the 2nd Punic War was Hannibals individual genius pitted against Rome's corporate genius. For example the strategy that saw Scipio landed in Africa had actually been decided on before the war began...only Hannibal running about in Italy delayed things and the elder Scipios made sure it did not delay the Spanish endeavour.

Fabius obviously gives his name to an entire brand of military-political thinking but again it is likely he was appointed dictator more because he represented the strategy agreed upon by the majority of the Senate. It is worth noting this was seen as the sensible course of action even by Hiero II off Syracuse who himself sent a suggestion along those lines to Rome.

Marcellus is perhaps the most likely to cause an upset even though he was the one who did in actual events manage to die like a pillock however the loss of Nola is probably the worst result likely to be produced by him deciding on a bit of dodgy personal recon even earlier and again I cannot see that ultimately changing much.

I think having read up in as much detail as I can manage the last few days Hannibal's best chance of doing something decisive would have been to take Tarentum (most likely though another good sized port would do) abandon efforts in Italy and try in Sicily. Then again even here Hannibal's truly abysmal record in siege warfare does not presuppose total victory on even just that island.

However maybe if he could win well enough to preserve New Carthage and the Punic position in Spain and perhaps cement the transfer of Syracuse into the Carthagian sphere that might for a much more interesting 3rd War or even (unlikely I suspect) a prolonged period of relatively peaceful competition.
 
Top