WI: Romanian army fully intervenes in Transnistria

Russia steps up its aid to Transnistria. They may have intervened, but given the state of the Russian Army during this period, I wouldn't bet on it. Back then, the Russians had a decaying military in horrible shape. Even now, with their increasing military power, they still hadn't fully recovered from the degradation of the '90s. Remember Georgia 2008? You don't hear much about it, but their military performance was actually very sloppy.

If the Russians did intervene, they would send in overwhelming numbers of troops. Due to their military incompetence, they will suffer many casualties and battlefield humiliations. Russia will, of course, be universally condemned. After all, they're illegall invading an internationally-recognized part of Moldova to support secessionists, but they'll of course veto any proposed sanctions at the UN, so no one will even bother trying to table such a resolution.

If they don't, the Moldovans and Romanians crush the Transnistrians in a matter of weeks. It doesn't matter how much military aid and volunteers they get, they cannot stand up to two armies. And I would suspect that the Romanians would drive up Transnistria's borders and close them off to cut off Russian aid.

Russia would probably bring horror stories of what is happening to civilians in Transnistria to the UN (even with the Moldovan defeat, they still claim that the Moldovans committed atrocities in Transnistria), and they will claim that a people's right to self-determination is being violated. They will propose a referendum for Transnistria depending on what they think the vote will be, and attempt to get sanctions imposed on Moldova and Romania. The US, seeing this as a Russian attempt to "divide and conquer" the former Soviet Union in order to weaken a former Soviet republic and get a new client state smack dab in the middle of the FSU, will veto these sanctions.

Overall result; Transnistria is today a part of Moldova.
 
Russia steps up its aid to Transnistria. They may have intervened, but given the state of the Russian Army during this period, I wouldn't bet on it. Back then, the Russians had a decaying military in horrible shape. Even now, with their increasing military power, they still hadn't fully recovered from the degradation of the '90s. Remember Georgia 2008? You don't hear much about it, but their military performance was actually very sloppy.

If the Russians did intervene, they would send in overwhelming numbers of troops. Due to their military incompetence, they will suffer many casualties and battlefield humiliations. Russia will, of course, be universally condemned. After all, they're illegall invading an internationally-recognized part of Moldova to support secessionists, but they'll of course veto any proposed sanctions at the UN, so no one will even bother trying to table such a resolution.

If they don't, the Moldovans and Romanians crush the Transnistrians in a matter of weeks. It doesn't matter how much military aid and volunteers they get, they cannot stand up to two armies. And I would suspect that the Romanians would drive up Transnistria's borders and close them off to cut off Russian aid.

Russia would probably bring horror stories of what is happening to civilians in Transnistria to the UN (even with the Moldovan defeat, they still claim that the Moldovans committed atrocities in Transnistria), and they will claim that a people's right to self-determination is being violated. They will propose a referendum for Transnistria depending on what they think the vote will be, and attempt to get sanctions imposed on Moldova and Romania. The US, seeing this as a Russian attempt to "divide and conquer" the former Soviet Union in order to weaken a former Soviet republic and get a new client state smack dab in the middle of the FSU, will veto these sanctions.

Overall result; Transnistria is today a part of Moldova.


What? Russia almost definitely would've intervened. BTW remember that we're talking about the Russian Army in the 1990's, not in 1940. Although you're right that there was degradation, the Russian Army was still vastly superior than the Romanian Army. Remember that during the Cold War period, Romania wasn't on the frontier of the Iron Curtain, and as such didn't have to build a great army. Because of the way Ceausescu ran the country, the army was better suited for crushing dissent than for fighting a war, or even a limited expedition against Russia in Transnistria.

I agree that the Russians would veto any meaningful UN action, and the West will likely condemn Russian action, but remember that the Russians have the Black Sea Fleet, and can embargo Moldova (leaving Moldova to rely entirely on Romania) and resupplying their troops. Of all the former Soviet republics, the US will care about Moldova THE LEAST.

Although Russia (and all other great powers) often make atrocities seem more common than they are, I would be inclined to believe that the Moldovans attempted some ethnic cleansing in Transnistria (actually Transdniestria), as the Transnistrians are East Slavic (pretty much Ukrainian) and the Moldovians are ethnically Romanian. Even if (ASB) the Romanians beat the Russians, they will likely be pretty pissed and will commit atrocities in Transnistria, which will withdraw lots of much-needed international support.

Overall result, Independent Transnistria, which is effectively a Russian protectorate (like OTL) but a stronger Transnistria and a bankrupt Moldova which will likely (if it can) merge with Romania.
 
You're right, sorry I was thinking of Bessarabia as a whole (including that little strip of coastline), but they could still interdict foreign aid to Moldova via Romania, dominating the Black Sea as they do.

The only thing is Romania can get whatever it wants via land trade or the Danube. While blockading the Romanian ports would definetly hit the economy, making this place even shittier than it is today, it would by no means be enough to stop an intervention across the Dniester.
 
Because of the way Ceausescu ran the country, the army was better suited for crushing dissent than for fighting a war, or even a limited expedition against Russia in Transnistria.
Actually, no. Ceausescu wasn't Gathafi. The reason the Romanian military was somewhat backwards from its neighbours was that a) Ceausescu wanted to pay off Romania's external debt to the IMF/WB, therefore he instituted a programme which could best be described as strip-mining the economy, leaving insufficient funds for Army procurement; b) due to the National-Communist ideal of self-sufficiency and import substitution (basically, proto-Juche) most of the military's needs were to be supplied in-house. Parts for T-55s and MiG-21s were cheap and easy to build; for MiG-29s and T-72s, not so much.
 
Actually, no. Ceausescu wasn't Gathafi. The reason the Romanian military was somewhat backwards from its neighbours was that a) Ceausescu wanted to pay off Romania's external debt to the IMF/WB, therefore he instituted a programme which could best be described as strip-mining the economy, leaving insufficient funds for Army procurement; b) due to the National-Communist ideal of self-sufficiency and import substitution (basically, proto-Juche) most of the military's needs were to be supplied in-house. Parts for T-55s and MiG-21s were cheap and easy to build; for MiG-29s and T-72s, not so much.

Probably right, but that still supports my assertion that they're military was inferior to the Russian military.
 
I think that a Romanian intervention might also lead to an intervention by Ukraine. They tacitly supported the Russian intervention in OTL and there were Ukrainian volunteers fighting in the war. Also, Ukraine has Romanian minorities on its own so they would be concerned by this sudden Romanian military assertiveness.
 

abc123

Banned
It seems to me that all of you forget that Romania was in same shit** position in 90s like Russia...
So any such intervention of Romaniea is ASB.
 
Russia>>>>>>>>>>>Romania

Really, even during the decline it suffered during and past the 80's the Russian army could still put up a VERY formidable attack or defense against any European power.

What really counted was their strategic air arm and their special operations group (spetsnaz and airborne [before they became sub-par like during the Georgian conflict]). Romania has a pitiful airforce, that is a critical flaw in their defense.

I think Russia would have no trouble in dispersing any organised resistance from Romania; UNLESS the west would have intervened and attempted to stop Russia, that would be the only way I can see Russia backing down.

:cool:
 
^OF course. He went to Moscow in spring 1990 to assure Gorby of his loyalty towards USSR. IIRC, all the help Moldova received from Romania during the war was semi-clandestine, approved by the lower echelons of the Army.
 
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