WI:Romania left the Warsaw Pact in 1968

Hello!This is my first thread.As the title says,what if Romania,to complete it's split from the Soviet Union,pulled a Yugoslavia and left the Warsaw Pact after refusing to take part in crushing the Prague Spring.We have the Albanian example,in which they, after splitting with the Soviet Union also left the Warsaw Pact.Now,Romania,not having the minimal strategic position of Albania or even Yugoslavia,would cut off the rest of the Warsaw Pact countries from Bulgaria.Probably,faced with this strategic situation,the Soviets may decide to invade Romania and oust Ceausescu.Bonus points if you have Romania succesfully establishing close ties with Yugoslavia and the West,allowing for more Romanians to travel West and Ceausescu really being considered the "second Tito" and if Romania joins the Non-Aligned Movement.How would this affect Communist Romania's history?Also,if not changed by the butterflies,would more Romanians travelling West have a good impact on the post-communist political elites and even people?
 
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CaliGuy

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I agree with you that this would have probably resulted in a Soviet invasion of Romania and regime change there. Indeed, I think that a Romanian exit from the Warsaw Pact would have been a step too far for the Soviet Union.
 
We would either see a pro Soviet coup or a total Soviet invasion from Ukraine and Bulgaria. This would diminish the international standing of the USSR, but it would get rid of the troublesome Ceausescu. The Romanians might even be able to put up a fight for a few weeks until totally collapsing.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
We would either see a pro Soviet coup or a total Soviet invasion from Ukraine and Bulgaria. This would diminish the international standing of the USSR, but it would get rid of the troublesome Ceausescu. The Romanians might even be able to put up a fight for a few weeks until totally collapsing.
An interesting question would be this--would Hungary (in spite of it being a Soviet puppet state during this time) try capturing and annexing some Romanian territory in such a scenario? Or is it going to receive strict orders from Moscow not to do this and thus back down?
 
An interesting question would be this--would Hungary (in spite of it being a Soviet puppet state during this time) try capturing and annexing some Romanian territory in such a scenario? Or is it going to receive strict orders from Moscow not to do this and thus back down?

If that would have been possible than Hungary would have received the Hungarian-speaking part of Czechoslovakia during the crushing of the Prague Spring.If the USSR would have allowed annexations of territories from Czechoslovakia or Romania,the invasions would appear to the West as simple wars of conquest and they would have hurt the USSR standing on the international stage.The USSR knew this and it wanted to maintain a balance between it's Eastern European satellite states and only take down regimes that could threaten it's power in the region.
 
Since we can all agree that leaving the Warsaw Pact would inevitably lead to Ceasescu's downfall,I say,that,in my opinion,this would be a good thing for Romania.Firstly,Ceausescu would not be seen as a Korean-style tyrant,but a short-lived communist-with-human-face leader,on the Dubcek-Nagy line.Secondly,the Soviet invasion would be Communist Romania's historic momment,almost it's 1956.Thirdly,all of this,plus no 24 years of Ceausescu's dictatorship would make Communist Romania have a better historical image in the West and would maybe even allow for a Romanian Walesa or Havel and Romania today may have Poland's level of development.What do you think?
 
An interesting question would be this--would Hungary (in spite of it being a Soviet puppet state during this time) try capturing and annexing some Romanian territory in such a scenario? Or is it going to receive strict orders from Moscow not to do this and thus back down?
Hungary won't do anything without Moscow's direct orders/approval. And I think that redrawing frontiers is a step too far for the then Soviet leadership.
 
IIRC, they didnt need to. Few Soviet troops were stationed there and unlike the rest of WP, their forces were not integrated in the command structure (ie under Soviet control). I might be wrong about these statements but that is how I understand/recall it was at the time.
 
I agree with you that this would have probably resulted in a Soviet invasion of Romania and regime change there. Indeed, I think that a Romanian exit from the Warsaw Pact would have been a step too far for the Soviet Union.

That depends Albania left the same year, the Warsaw was more a forum than anything, If Romania brings this up there, I can see it happening. trying to suppress Romania at a time like this could cost the Soviets influence in the Second World. Besides, It's not Romania won't be Communist, considering the Soviets did patch things up with the Yugoslavs.
 
That depends Albania left the same year, the Warsaw was more a forum than anything, If Romania brings this up there, I can see it happening. trying to suppress Romania at a time like this could cost the Soviets influence in the Second World. Besides, It's not Romania won't be Communist, considering the Soviets did patch things up with the Yugoslavs.

But,as I have said,Albania doesn't have the strategic importance of Romania,as Romania leaving would cut off the rest of the Warsaw Pact from Bulgaria.If Romania would be allowed to exit and maybe even join the Non-Aligned Movement,than the Soviets may lose some of their hold on the rest of the Warsaw Pact.The question is:Would the USSR under the Brezhnev doctrine allow countries to leave the Warsaw Pact at their will?
 
That depends Albania left the same year, the Warsaw was more a forum than anything, If Romania brings this up there, I can see it happening. trying to suppress Romania at a time like this could cost the Soviets influence in the Second World. Besides, It's not Romania won't be Communist, considering the Soviets did patch things up with the Yugoslavs.

But,as I said,Albania doesn't have the strategic importance of Romania.If Romania would be allowed to leave and maybe even join the Non-Aligned Movement,than this could set a powerful precedent for Warsaw Pact countries to leave when they don't agree with the Soviets.There are 2 main questions:First:Can the USSR afford to lose it's land connection with Bulgaria? and second:If the USSR may not care if Romania leaves the Warsaw Pact,can it not see the leaving of a country in the center of the Eastern Bloc,after the succes of the Yugoslav and Albanian leaving,as setting a dangerous precedent for the rest of the Warsaw Pact countries?
 
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