WI: Romania joines the Central Powers in 1915

What happens if the Germany and Austria-Hungary were able to convince Romania to join World War 1 on the side of the Central Powers against Russia say sometime in June of 1915?
 
Might prolong the war a bit but probably wont be decisive.

Russia will lose anyways and romania isnt going to send anything west.

They might help out with the salonica front but the other central powers are still going to fold 1 by 1.

It could make for an interesting inter-war period,with romania as an enemy the entente might leave transylvania in hungary which would have interesting implications for inter-axis cooperation later one.

 
It means an extension of the Russian front. Rommania can occupy Bessarbia. Supply issue would probably prevent more than that.

Certainly Russia will be more stretched in 1916. (If because of this Russia skips its 1916 offensives and remains on the defensive it might actually be helpful if Russia can avoid revolution.)

It means Germany can purchase as much grain and oil as Rommania is willing to sell.

OTL Romania's entry on the Allies side meant the end for Germany's Falkenhyn. If he is still around, probably no unrestricted submarine warfare and all the butterflies on that.

It really can range from a complete Central Powers win if the butterflies go their way to the Germans do a little better but still lose.
 
The Romanian objective would be to seize Bessarabia. This opens up a front in the south to the Central Powers. If properly coordinated, the Central Powers would want to tie Romanian entry into an offensive in Ukraine, likely with Kiev as an objective, along the axis of the major rail lines.

If coordinated well, the entire Russian front in the south might be blown open like the north's was in the Gorlice-Tarnow offensive. For best impact, you would probably want Romania to enter the war in late July or August when it is already pulling out of Poland.

Given the poor state of the Romanian army, surprise would be its greatest advantage. However, given Russian losses in 1914 and 1915, its opponent may not be any better.

If the Central Powers are able to seize a significant part of Ukraine, it is possible they could form a "Ukrainian Legion" of nationalist collaborators who would agree to a puppet Ukrainian state (similar to the Kingdom of Poland) in the hopes it could lead to real independence. This is a big if though since Ukrainians were not as hostile towards Russia as the Polish were.

The creation of any kind Ukrainian state or army in 1916 or early 1917 would keep it better organized and longer than the Ukrainian People's Republic that resulted from the Russian Revolution. It would give the Ukrainian nationalists a better chance of survival after the war. Assuming the borders of Poland and Ukraine were established in anyway under the Germans, then it might stop Polish-Ukrainian fighting and allow both to defend themselves against the Bolsheviks and the Whites.
 

JAG88

Banned
Romania would be an economic asset for the CPs...

...and a military deadweight, its performance was nothing short of disastrous. If they join in 1915 they may collapse if attacked by the Russians further extending the length of the front.

On the other hand, it would likely cause the Russians to further retreat into Ukraine, and here the Ukrainians attitude would be critical as mentioned by someone else, if offered independence it may actually accelerate the Russian collapse.

Everyone expected Romania's entry to be decisive... but they turned out to be a fizzle, and actually helped the CPs that got to ransack and pillage the place for grain and oil.
 
Romania joining the CP in June of 1915 means that Germany will be able to send munitions by rail to the Ottomans immediately which is bad news for the Entente forces at Gallipoli. It also means that when Serbia is invaded there will not be the OTL emphasis on opening the rail line (not needed) so the CP can concentrate on annihilating the Serbian army.
 
The interesting part is post war. Would be weird to reward enemy romania with Transylvania.
 
I don't see how you could do this with anything resembling OTL.

There was a very, very minor chance for Romania to join the CP at the very beginning, if King Carol had wished to do away with democratic niceties and assume the role of an autocrat (as the vast majority of the political elite was opposed joining Germany). This however went against his beliefs, and was incredibly risky to boot, especially given his age, so its understandable why he didn't. Had he done so, there is a real possibility that Romania switches sides shortly after his death (OTL in October '14).

By June '15, Ferdinand is on the throne, and in no way is Bucharest going to join what they see as a losing side just for the scraps that were Basarabia. Nobody really cared THAT much over it. What they were interested in first and foremost was Transylvania.

Now, if the CPs are obviously only a few weeks away from total victory, then Romania will no doubt join. But if TTL has diverged that much from our own, then Germany doesn't really need Romania anyway.

Disregarding all logic and common sense and assuming ASB's mind-control the upper class, then what Catspoke said would apply.
 
I don't see how you could do this with anything resembling OTL.

There was a very, very minor chance for Romania to join the CP at the very beginning, if King Carol had wished to do away with democratic niceties and assume the role of an autocrat (as the vast majority of the political elite was opposed joining Germany). This however went against his beliefs, and was incredibly risky to boot, especially given his age, so its understandable why he didn't. Had he done so, there is a real possibility that Romania switches sides shortly after his death (OTL in October '14).

By June '15, Ferdinand is on the throne, and in no way is Bucharest going to join what they see as a losing side just for the scraps that were Basarabia. Nobody really cared THAT much over it. What they were interested in first and foremost was Transylvania.

Now, if the CPs are obviously only a few weeks away from total victory, then Romania will no doubt join. But if TTL has diverged that much from our own, then Germany doesn't really need Romania anyway.

Disregarding all logic and common sense and assuming ASB's mind-control the upper class, then what Catspoke said would apply.

Hi,

True. The best chances to Romania to enter in war on Central Powers are either right in the begining or if France fall.

If Romania enter in war in the beginning, the differences between the Romanian army and other ones (aka Russian) is less evident (well, aside the numbers).
What plagues Romanian army in 1916 campaign are:
- leadership (well this will be hard to fix in quickly manner, but a German mission, same as the OTL French one, could help a lot. See Bulgarians and Ottomans). The worse were the absence of a good quality of low-rank officers and factionalism and politicization of the higher ranks (that were still not so bad). The Romanian soldiers were good in average, reliable and tough.
- strategy: very oriented on bayonet charge. All the armies were plagued with that in 1914... they completely change in 1916 but Romanians learn it only after loosing half of teh Country and 2/3 of the army (well the most casualties were from typhus)...
- lack of heavy artillery and large stocks of shells: well most of the other armies in 1914 do not have yet heavy artillery like in 1916 one + all have limited stoks of shells (a major reason that the ostilities come to a halt in the fall or 1914). Germany could help.
- lack of machine guns: with the exception of Germany, no army had may of these. In 1916 was completely different situation.
- lack of domestically industry of armament: this will not change.
- lack of provisions: well, when the war start and Romania declared neutrality no country agree to sell it anymore. Romania continue to sell oil and grain but for cash. That gold could not buy anything... So, the situation of the army in 1916 was worse than 1914.

All in once, if Romania enter in war in 1914, I strongly believe that the war could be won by Central Powers. Even before entering in war on the side of Antante, Romania practiced a neutrality very favorable to Antante. They sell oil and grain mostly to them... Forbidden the transport of materials and specialist to Turkey but allowing the transport of such to Serbia. Receiving Serbian retreating troops (well, a Serbian division fight in Romanian army), etc.

Perhaps USA will not even get involved at all. Russia will fall quickly and perhaps France will be toasted.

If this happens, we can see Italy join as well on the side of Central Powers. Bulgaria could join even earlier. Germans could link with ottomans and Serbia could be out of game quicker.

Another problem that Romania faced were the lack of reliance from their neighbors allies (neither Russia or Austro-Hungaria wanted a strong Romania and they were even more happy to divide it between them!)

Still, for Romania will not be a winning move. They can recover Bassarabia from Russia (maybe a little more - a.k.a. Trans-Dniest, Odessa) and maybe Timoc valley form Serbia. At maximum they could hope is to buy from Austro-Hungary the Northern Bucovine, but nothing more. No Transylvania, no Banat, no Crisana and Maramures (Partium), all rich and developed regions. That means No Greater Romania.:mad::mad::mad:
 
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Others have already explained why this is unlikely, but the conclusions some have drawn here seem quite mistaken as well.
A Central powers offensive against Russia in 1916 is very unlikely due to the pressure on the Western Front. Romania isn't really powerful enough to change this and even taking Besarabia might be far too optimistic.
As for the idea of turning the Ukrainians against the Russian Empire, this seems to project present-day attitudes to the past. At the time, outside Galicia Ukrainian nationalism was barely in its formation state. Furthermore, it's very questionable that the Central Powers could hope to attract much Ukrainian support considering the strained relations between Austria-Hungary and its own Ukrainians. Their army took wide-scale repressive measures against Ukrainians who were accused of collaborating with the Russian army, both in Carpathian Ruthenia and Galicia, with many Ukranians from the later fleeing with the Russian army when it retreated.

Romania joining the CP in June of 1915 means that Germany will be able to send munitions by rail to the Ottomans immediately which is bad news for the Entente forces at Gallipoli. It also means that when Serbia is invaded there will not be the OTL emphasis on opening the rail line (not needed) so the CP can concentrate on annihilating the Serbian army.
No, they wouldn't be able to send munitions since neutral Bulgaria is still in the way.
 
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