WI: Rockefeller got the Republican nomination in 1964?

I know this has probably been discussed before, but if Rockefeller had managed to beat Goldwater for the Republican nomination (probably the most obvious POD I can think of is him not marrying Happy), how would it have changed the 1964 election and the future of American politics?
 
I know this has probably been discussed before, but if Rockefeller had managed to beat Goldwater for the Republican nomination (probably the most obvious POD I can think of is him not marrying Happy), how would it have changed the 1964 election and the future of American politics?

Johnson wins the deep south, Rockefeller probably wins a few states in the north east though. Popular vote margin is more or less the same, electoral vote margin is also similar. As the future, I don't think it really changes much, as a matter of fact I could see 1965-present going as OTL even if Rocky is the nominee in '64.
 
Wallace or someone runs as a Dixiecrat, takes the South.

LBJ probably wins comfortably.

Query Goldwater runs68 and is nominated.
 
Rockefeller would do better than Goldwater in traditional Republican areas, winning Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, and maybe some of the plains states. Rockefeller might do worse overall electorally than Goldwater if he doesn't win his home state of New York, but in the popular vote he'd do better, losing many states by much smaller margins. The Republicans take smaller losses in Congress than OTL, though they don't win the scattering of seats they won in the Deep South.

A segregationist third party, led by Thurmond or Wallace probably, arises and sweeps the states that OTL went for Goldwater in the South. Strom Thurmond would stay a Democrat in 1964 or become an independent; maybe he'd switch to the GOP if they nominated Goldwater or another conservative in 1968.
 
Wallace or someone runs as a Dixiecrat, takes the South.

LBJ probably wins comfortably.

Query Goldwater runs68 and is nominated.

I could still see Nixon taking the nomination. The establishment would put up one hell of a fight against Goldwater and the far right in '68 as it will be winnable. '64, with the Kennedy assassination taking place a year before it, was not, so Goldwater winning the nomination in 64 OTL wasn't a big deal. His winning it in '68 TTL however is as he'd run the risk of losing a VERY winnable election for them. Humphrey came close to beating Nixon in '68, I can see HHH trouncing Goldwater.
 
I think it would be much closer. Probably more like Dewey 44. The GOP would do much better with blacks and prevent the mass defections to the Democrats that happened due to Goldwater's vote against the Civil Right's Act. Since the loss wouldn't have been so great I think the downballot races wouldn't have been as bad, leading to a less sweeping Great Society.
Nixon probably runs and wins in 1968 since Vietnam isn't likely to be different than OTL.
 
I agree with those who say this probably means that Wallace runs 4 years early.

I do wonder whether the absence of Goldwater from the GOP Ticket in 1964 leads to a delayed Southern Strategy?

I doubt Goldwater has much of a chance of winning the 1968 nomination, TBH-and I'm personally sceptical he'll even run for it. I always got the impression that the Goldwaterights were a lot more infused by the idea of a presidential run than Goldwater himself was, though I could be wrong. In any case, Nixon isn't going to pass up on the opportunity to run in 1968-and will therefore still be the nominee in that year, regardless of whether Goldwater decides to give it another go or not.

Of course, in this TL Goldwater probably doesn't take a break from the US Senate, which could lead to interesting consequences down the road.

Does no Goldwater nomination in 1964 mean no Governor Reagan in 1966? I've heard his 'Time For Choosing' speech in support of Barry was his Launchpad into US politics, though without Goldwater's nomination, is it a sure thing this is butterflied away?
 
Does no Goldwater nomination in 1964 mean no Governor Reagan in 1966? I've heard his 'Time For Choosing' speech in support of Barry was his Launchpad into US politics, though without Goldwater's nomination, is it a sure thing this is butterflied away?[/QUOTE]

I agree. Reagan would not have the same enthusiasm for Rockefeller. This delays or cancels Reagan's political career.
 
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