WI: Robin Cook becomes Labour leader instead of Blair?

Let's say that Blair declines to run in the 1994 leadership election, and it's a virtual two-way contest between Gordon Brown (the centrist 'modernizing' candidate) and Robin Cook (the soft-left Kinnockite candidate). Margaret Beckett also runs (as the left-wing Bennite candidate), but has little support. In the end, the more charismatic Cook achieves a narrow victory over Brown.

How would a Cook leadership have turned out? Would he have led Labour to victory in 1997? And (here comes the inevitable question) if he had indeed become PM, how would he have handled the post-9/11 situation?
 

Thande

Donor
I don't see Blair just deciding to sit it out, it's not in his nature, but let's say Blair is killed in an accident or leaves politics for some reason. Cook as leader...he had powerful transformative ideas, but lacked Blair's charisma, and his unattractive appearance coupled to his strong accent could cause problems. Labour would still win in 1997 (they could scarcely lose) but it would not be Blair's landslide. A majority of maybe fifty. Cook would preside over a strongly reforming government I think, and probably one with a genuine foreign policy realignment, but ultimately you have the two ticking time bombs of his penchant for affairs and the heart problem that led to his shock early death in OTL.
 
Cook isn't going to become Labour leader barring the death of every other candidate. He sure as hell isn't going to beat Gordon Brown. Beckett and Prescott are more likely leaders. It's just not going to happen.
 
Agree with V-J you need to shove Prescott, Brown, Beckett and Blair under buses in order to get a Cook leadership.
 

Thande

Donor
Brown, perhaps (I remember Meadow saying he viewed a Cook leadership as the most likely outcome of that scenario he did where Brown and Blair are killed in a gas explosion while making their deal at the Granita) but I think Cook has a decent chance vs. Prescott or Beckett.
 
On second thoughts I think he'd have the edge over Beckett but Prescott's union base and populism would win the day.

Imagine PM Prescott?
 

Thande

Donor
On second thoughts I think he'd have the edge over Beckett but Prescott's union base and populism would win the day.

Imagine PM Prescott?

"Well I think you'll find that in point of fact and if you'll let me finish I've had my say and now I'll say that considering years of Tory neglect you'll find that the government's position has consistently been that and!"

What would be even better is if Prescott and Cook were the two main contenders for the Labour leadership...and they had a debate :eek:
 
Brown, perhaps (I remember Meadow saying he viewed a Cook leadership as the most likely outcome of that scenario he did where Brown and Blair are killed in a gas explosion while making their deal at the Granita) but I think Cook has a decent chance vs. Prescott or Beckett.

What makes Cook the least likely leadership candidate is the utter shallowness of his support base. He was widely respected in the PLP but he had no partisans and almost no popularity. He had a prickly personality which often alienated people, and his political positions didn't fit comfortably with Labour in the 1990s, by which time he was arguably to the left of people like Beckett. Prescott would sweep the union vote, and even if you exclude him Beckett would probably get by simply by being the incumbent caretaker leader and similarly winning most of the union vote. Cook-as-leader really requires a coronation.
 
Was having another think about this and the possible permutations of candidacies.

Assuming a removal of Blair and Brown for whatever reason, and leaving aside the butterflies then you're left with Prescott and Beckett from OTL. Both of these would certainly still run, and both would almost certainly not simultaneously run as deputy leader as they did in OTL, being in these circumstances more realistic leadership candidates.

Cook may or may not run. He'd almost certainly run if Brown, but not Blair was in the contest, but if Brown is not then it's a toss-up. Personally I suspect he'd fall back on his Kinnock-Smith role of campaign manager and support either Beckett, or...

Jack Straw or David Blunkett could both be candidates. I don't see Blunkett going for it but Straw is certainly a possibility, and if you remove both Blair and Brown then the mantle of the modernisation candidate would be wide open for him, so the pressure would be pretty big for him to run. He'd be in a decent position to win, as well. PMQs would be like viewing two mirror images...

If not him, or if he doesn't run, then I suspect Beckett might just edge Prescott, who would almost certainly win the union vote but might not do so well with the more electorally-minded PLP and constituency vote.
 
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