WI: Robert, son of King Philip IV of France, lives?

I agree for the 1328 succession, but for the 1316 one, it played a part, alongside the reasons you described.
I think we both agree it played a part, but I also think we'd both agree it didn't played the inflated part that tend to be described in romanticized or, let's say "misplaced patriotism" historiography* : it was a big scandal, and was certainly in everybody's minds in 1316, but didn't won the situation alone.

*Which mostly can be summarized as "we had superior rights because...reasons!"
 
I think we both agree it played a part, but I also think we'd both agree it didn't played the inflated part that tend to be described in romanticized or, let's say "misplaced patriotism" historiography* : it was a big scandal, and was certainly in everybody's minds in 1316, but didn't won the situation alone.

*Which mostly can be summarized as "we had superior rights because...reasons!"

In my opinion, the biggest consequence of the Nesle affair was Louis X was unable to "know" his wife for some time and thus missed the most heir-making period.
 
In my opinion, the biggest consequence of the Nesle affair was Louis X was unable to "know" his wife for some time and thus missed the most heir-making period.
Didn't tought it this way, but it's a fairly good point.

That said, I wonder if the succession of (the county of) Burgundy didn't prevented Louis to repudiate Marguerite of (the Duchy of) Burgundy, as it allowed him to claim some (thin at best IMO) legitimacy to enforce the union of the Duchy and County.
The whole negociation was shaky enough, and trouble-creating enough for the early reign of Louis X that we could plausibly imagine that the king decides it's not worth all of this.
Maybe it could lead to an earlier repudation of Marguerite of Burgundy? (I'm not sure how much it would weigh against Jeanne's legitimacy, tough. )
 
King Robert III m. Constance of Sicily (1304-1344)

  1. King Robert IV (1337– 1413)
  2. Isabella (b. 1338), married c. 1356 Prince John of Gaunt
  3. Louis (1339–1393)
  4. Frederick (1341–1397)
  5. Catherine (b. 1343)
 
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