Greenville
Banned
What if General Robert E. Lee's forces were surrounded and captured at the Battle of Gettysburg as hoped for by the Union?
The Southern Rebellion is dead in the water.
The combination of the capture of the Army of Northern Virginia and the the seizure of Vicksburg/reconquest of the Mississippi River in quick succession would hit morale across the rebellious territories hard. Even assuming the leadership in Richmond intends to fight, there's no way they'll be able to convince Lousianna or Mississippi to send up their reserves when General Grant is close by and could strike at any moment. Hell, the entire Deep South is likely to hold onto what garrison troops they have for dear life, meaning the rebel leadership is going to have to flee to where they are if they want to be protected... which leaves Virginia and all its industrial capacity undefended and a clear route into North Carolina, who has strong Unionist sentiments and could easily defect (especially if they're offered fairly lenient terms for reunion by the Federal government... which at the time of Gettysburg was still a viable option).
Assuming the Emancipation Proclaimation is still issued, you might just see a rush by state governments to get out of the "state of rebellion" to avoid the enforced emancipation since there's no longer a large standing military force to give the rebellion any chance of success. In the long run, of course, that's going to make emancipation more problematic, especially if the upper south is given lenient terms to repatriate in order to end the rebellion more quickly (Lincoln, the Republicans, and even most of the Northern population valuing the sanctity of the Union, republic, and Consitutionial law more than black liberation in any reguard). In all likelyhood, Emancipation won't be attached to the Civil War, and it would be better remembered for how the young Republic proved it could sustain itself, proving the viability off Constiutional law and democratic self-governance (In an era where republicanism looked like it was on its way out... see the failure of the Springtime of Nations), securing the hope of liberty when it looked like it might be snuffed out for rule by "aristocrats" (The Southern planters would still get the shaft... but more for how they resembled European nobles)
The EP went into effect on Jan 1st, 1863 by Gettysburg it was too late to go back. Lincoln said several times that after it went into effect he could not go back on it as he already pledged his word. After Lee's capture Lincoln is in a position both militarily and politically where he doesn't have to give up a thing. There is literally almost nothing between Meade and Richmond. Grant will take Vicksburg at the same time and Confederate Army morale would be very low. I think Bragg's men might give up even before Grant arrives because the cause would be clearly hopeless after the fall of both Vicksburg and Richmond.
I mentioned the morale issue in terms of the "Confederates" as a whole (and as for the rebel government in Richmond, yah they're screwed. I woulden't argue against that in any circumstances). The problem Lincoln faces is, while the rebel army is gone, the situation in the Dee[ Southern states is still viable enough and Lee captured in a "martyer" enough of a situation that the state governments there could still reasonably threaten to shift to gurellia warfare. We've yet to see the March to the Sea, and the Army of Northern Virginia was worn down not through attrition on its own soil, but swallowed in a sack while invading enemy territory. In such a case, resistance hasen't been proven to be a futile effort; the Deep South could very well conclude that it was trying to bring the war to the North and focusing on a conventional military campaign in Virginia that was the mistake.
Assuming that threat still existed, and the Upper South was willing to peacefully rejoin the Union (saving what could be an extended, violent occupation of what Lincoln wanted to see as his fellow countrymen, leading to greater resentment and death on both sides and a potential long-term split of the nation into areas under civilian and military law as unrepentant rebels: who could say they offered peace and reunion with honor and their Constitutional rights intact, but the Radical Republican tyrants offered only war to the death over the issue of black franchise). Imagine the political backlash even in the North when people learn their sons are going to be dying and fighting for potentially years more when peace and reconciliation was so close at hand.
The Democrats are going to be making political hay over the issue, and there's going to be a lot of Republicans putting pressure on the administration to do at least some backpeddling if they don't want to get voted out by moderate "Reconsiliation" candidates.
What if General Robert E. Lee's forces were surrounded and captured at the Battle of Gettysburg as hoped for by the Union?
While I would agree with the majority of your post, I find several old myths repeated here.There was a chance to destroy the AoNV, but it was after the battle, when high water prevented the retreating Confederates from crossing the Potomac at Williamsport. Meade had pursued, but cautiously; and worried that Lee's dug-in position along the river was too strong to attack. He spent two days in reconnaissance; but Lee crossed the river in the night after the second day.
If Meade had pressed the attack, there is a good chance that the AoNV would collapse, with most being captured, including probably Lee.
While I would agree with the majority of your post, I find several old myths repeated here.
1. Meade's pursuit was not cautious but fairly aggressive and well-conceived. Meade's orders to screen Washington constrained him to a less direct route to the Potomac than the one Lee took. Not to mention logistical factors that hampered Meade.
2. The idea that the Army of the Potomac could destroy the Army of Northern Virginia at Williamsport is simply false. Lee had had time to entrench, very heavily. Meade called a council of war, and many of his generals opposed an attack under those circumstances.
In fact, most of the criticism came from politicians and rear-echelon soldiers. Confederate General John B. Gordon also defended Meade's decision. Colonel Charles S. Wainwright, 1st Corps Artillery Chief, who examined Lee's position after his withdrawal, thought Meade made the right call. Brig. Gen Henry Hunt agreed with Wainwright's assessment. A. A. Humphreys, Meade's new chief of staff, thirty-year veteran of the Topographical Corps, also believed Meade acted correctly in taking his time to prepare an assault on Lee's formidable lines.
Based on the report of Brigadier General J.G. Barnard on March 31, 1863, the garrison "of the forts constituting the Defenses of Washington" was 10,305 artillerymen and 16,420 Infantry for a total of "full garrisons for all the forts" as 26,725 men.What troops were there at Washington itself?
With the Capital no longer in danger, would it have been possible for these forces to move up the Potomac and get there before Lee did, so that he arrived at Williamsport to find Union forces on the opposite bank?
The report shows that the Washington Defenses were felt to be undermanned than overstrength. The report also stated that 25,000 infantrymen and 9,000 artillerymen were required the defense. Hence, there would be no way to convince Halleck and Lincoln to send troops to Williamsport in order to block Lee.It will be seen, therefore, that a force of this magnitude would not furnish a satisfactory defense against a powerful and prolonged attack.It would be necessary to sustain it by arming all the able-bodied men in the District, and putting them upon the lines and in garrisons in the northern forts, and even then the defense would be weak.
there would be no way to convince Halleck and Lincoln to send troops to Williamsport in order to block Lee.
The insecurity about Washington is greatly demonstrated by orders and restrictions that must followed by the Army of the Potomac commanders. The Army of the Potomac must always be between Washington and the Army of Northern Virginia. The only way for Meade to do so was by marching down the spine of the South Mountain range which added the distance and thus fatigue of the march. However, there was no other route Meade could take without disobeying orders.
True. There were, however, opportunities to cut Lee off from the Potomac.Pity.
I admire Lee, but his escape after Gettysburg was a tragedy for North and South alike.
It wouldn't happen. The South just ran into a buzz-saw and got its clock cleaned. Morale would be low and guerilla war is vastly overrated. Expect Union casualties to drop 80%+ (Probably considerably more) virtually overnight. With no support from abroad, with Virginia overrun and their main armies defeated I doubt very much the South would put up much more of a fight than in 1865. With the ANV gone there is nothing to prevent Meade from taking Richmond and then simply march his army straight south to Georgia and then turning west. Since the money was in the east it makes it even more devastating than the loss of the west was in 1864. Basically 1865 would happen a year and a half early.
The biggest problem with your scenario is that the masters can't prevent their slaves from running off if they are playing guerilla in the woods. Slavery can not last long without police power defending it and once the South is overrun by armies the South would have no police power left . If they run off to play guerilla the slave owners lose their slaves, if they don't they will have to pay the ex-slaves but at least they can get the ex-slaves to pick their cotton for them.