WI Riego doesn-t rebel (Spain 1820)

WI Rafael de Riego doesn't rebel in 1820.

In 1820, the Spanish regiments stationed in Cadiz rebeled against absolutism, and initiated a rebelion that would force Ferdinand VII to accept a liberal constitution. But what if they hadn't rebeled, and this troops had been sent to the Americas to fight revolutionary movements in South America (as it was expected). Where would they have been sent? By then, Argentina*, Paraguay, Chile and Venezuela* were independent, and Uruguay was in Portuguese/Brazilian hands.

What effects, if any, would this troops have in Spanish American independence movements? Would the absence of this rebelion butterfly away Mexico's independence in 1820? For how long?
 
Well that army was going to be dispatched to the Rio de la Plata, no?

Mexico itself is weird, because upon achieving independence the Mexican state actually carried out a lot of the revoolutionaries' reforms. My guess is the Mexican regime staggers on until another crisis. If it's really unlucky it happens when President Jackson is in office.
 
Well that army was going to be dispatched to the Rio de la Plata, no?

Mexico itself is weird, because upon achieving independence the Mexican state actually carried out a lot of the revoolutionaries' reforms. My guess is the Mexican regime staggers on until another crisis. If it's really unlucky it happens when President Jackson is in office.
Is it possible the troops from Cadiz join the NW rebels and help found a state in the Americas? I'm assuming that they don't rebel in Spain but can rebel later if they are thousands of miles from home.
 
Is it possible the troops from Cadiz join the NW rebels and help found a state in the Americas? I'm assuming that they don't rebel in Spain but can rebel later if they are thousands of miles from home.

That's not completly unlike. Some spanish liberals felt great sympathy for the hispano-american uprisings, and even we have examples like José María España, Joan Picornell and Manuel Gual in Venezuela. However, it was mixed with a young (spanish) nationalism which propugned a different approach to the situation (like Flórez Estrada or Blanco White, for example). On the other hand, we have more difficult cases like San Martín himself, who, despite he was born ríoplatense, spent most of his life before joining the rebels in Spain and was son of peninsular spaniards. He was even a war hero in Bailén.In this sense, that traditional idea of "criollos" against "peninsulares" probably is a bit inaccurate and things were a little more complex, but i disgress.
Anyway, I can't say much about the military effects if Cadiz army were dispatched to Río de la Plata. But I guess that, as much, it only could delay the events, but don't stop it, at least directly. My point is that the problem was political rather than military. I don't think it would have had great effects in New Spain. Even New spanish MP's in the spanish Cortes after Riego's pronunciamiento deffended a very mexican project, though even if it included colaterally the rest of Hispanic America due to strategical reasons, probably they actually only worried about New Spain, as it's natural. By the way, I don't think Mexico was weird. On the contrary, they, in most cases, or at least in the triumphant ones, defended a rather clear and consistent autonomist project coherent with the original lines of most of the hispano-american rebellions. It was spanish political bigotry which pushed them towards total independence. On the other hand, the lack of 1820 spanish revolution probably has extended butterflies in Europe, specially in the Two Sicilies. But returning to Río de la Plata, even if the royal army is succesful, it changes small things in the great scheme, I think. Those unhappy would be still unhappy, probably awaiting for a new opportunity, which could come quickly because probably a liberal uprising in metropolitan Spain was only a matter of time. We could have something different if a different politic is adopted in Madrid after the armed intervention, but Ferdinand VII, who at this time would be still absolute monarch, was not fond on this idea, as seen since it was one of the political destroyers of the Treaty of Córdoba, for example, and in general in his political positions.

Cheers,
 
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