WI: Rick Perry Presidency

How do we think a Rick Perry victory in 2012 would look?

I think a Republican, even someone as conservative as Perry, could defeat Obama in 2012 if certain factors (or a combination of factors) helped them and hurt Obama: another economic downturn, a foreign policy disaster (on the scale of the Iran Hostage Crisis, perhaps), a third party challenge from the left, etc. It would not be a landslide victory for the GOP, but I think they could achieve a close victory in the presidential race. The GOP might gain narrow control of the Senate depending on the size of their presidential winning margin: Indiana (if Richard Mourdock didn't make his rape comment), Missouri (if Todd Akin wasn't the nominee), Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin could all be plausibly won by the Republicans.

I’m assuming Democrats make Congressional gains in 2014 just in time for Scalia to die in 2015 and make the SCOTUS a major issue.

Do they block a nomination?

What about the gay marriage cases that occurred in the second Obama term?

If Perry is elected in 2012, then Scalia might retire from SCOTUS in 2013 or 2014, especially if Republicans retake the Senate in 2012. Perry would replace him with a judge with a very Scalia-esque philosophy. Anthony Kennedy might retire as well in 2013-14 and would probably be replaced with a more reliably conservative judge. If that happens, then in 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges would be decided in favor of the defendant, and same-sex marriage would not be a constitutionally protected right. That would significantly set back the fight for marriage equality, which would probably evolve toward promoting a constitutional amendment guaranteeing marriage equality (a much steeper hill to climb, given the difficulty of amending the U.S. Constitution).
 
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