WI: Richard Pavlick Assassinates JFK In 1960?

I question your placement of New York, North Dakota, and Tennessee under the circumstances established.

  • New York, in a Democratic Landslide, is always going to go with the Democrat's. Maybe Johnson's win is in the single digits or is barely in the double digits, but there is no way Rocky is carrying the state unless he is polling close to Johnson, which he wouldn't be.
  • North Dakota rejected both Nixon and Goldwater by higher margins than did South Dakota. It only seemed reasonable that Rocky would also lose North Dakota givne the circumstance, maybe just a narrow loss. However, given this is a landslide, it seemed reasonable to assume that he would have lost it.
  • Why is Tennessee not in the Wallace Column along with North Carolina? I assumed the situation would become something like '68, with Johnson's lead in the single digits. Because he is not as unpopular as he was in '68 (where he was polling lower in the South than Humphrey if that can be believed) it seems reasonable that he could carry both states even if by narrow margins.
 
  • New York, in a Democratic Landslide, is always going to go with the Democrat's. Maybe Johnson's win is in the single digits or is barely in the double digits, but there is no way Rocky is carrying the state unless he is polling close to Johnson, which he wouldn't be.
  • North Dakota rejected both Nixon and Goldwater by higher margins than did South Dakota. It only seemed reasonable that Rocky would also lose North Dakota givne the circumstance, maybe just a narrow loss. However, given this is a landslide, it seemed reasonable to assume that he would have lost it.
  • Why is Tennessee not in the Wallace Column along with North Carolina? I assumed the situation would become something like '68, with Johnson's lead in the single digits. Because he is not as unpopular as he was in '68 (where he was polling lower in the South than Humphrey if that can be believed) it seems reasonable that he could carry both states even if by narrow margins.
It may be likely that Johnson wins, but a landslide is stretching it and New Yorkers kept reelecting Rocky, so he has a real base of support among New York voters.

Not being Nixon or Goldwater helps Rocky in ND.

The issue with TN is not Wallace winning the state, but cyphoning off enough of the vote to make Tennessee go for Rocky. Even in the days of the Solid South, East Tennessee was a GOP bastion.
 
It may be likely that Johnson wins, but a landslide is stretching it and New Yorkers kept reelecting Rocky, so he has a real base of support among New York voters.

Not being Nixon or Goldwater helps Rocky in ND.

The issue with TN is not Wallace winning the state, but cyphoning off enough of the vote to make Tennessee go for Rocky. Even in the days of the Solid South, East Tennessee was a GOP bastion.

I forgot to factor in the fact that Kennedy wasn't shot only a year before the election, rather vaporised four years prior. Anyway, I still see Rocky's affair, divorce, and love child hurting him in the polls and in the run up to the General Election, and so while it may not be a landslide, it should still be a comfortable win for Johnson.​

  • Dakota's voting habits seem off in the '60 - '64 era, with them being opposites in the period before and after. Thereofore, I admit Rocky likely would have won an additional three votes.
  • Tennesse would not have gone to Rocky. While the East was a Republican region, Rocky's stance on Civil Rights would have been enough to put him into third place rather than second or first, as would be the case everywhere in the former Confederacy. They would either go to Wallace or, more likely, simply sit out the election.
 
I forgot to factor in the fact that Kennedy wasn't shot only a year before the election, rather vaporised four years prior. Anyway, I still see Rocky's affair, divorce, and love child hurting him in the polls and in the run up to the General Election, and so while it may not be a landslide, it should still be a comfortable win for Johnson.​

  • Dakota's voting habits seem off in the '60 - '64 era, with them being opposites in the period before and after. Thereofore, I admit Rocky likely would have won an additional three votes.
  • Tennesse would not have gone to Rocky. While the East was a Republican region, Rocky's stance on Civil Rights would have been enough to put him into third place rather than second or first, as would be the case everywhere in the former Confederacy. They would either go to Wallace or, more likely, simply sit out the election.

Your also ignoring the prospect for butterflies that possibily result in Rocky's life not being in the state that it was in the 1964 of our timeline. There's no evidence that his civil rights stand would erode Rocky's potential support base in East Tennessee.
 
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