WI: Rhodesia fights to the bitter end

Inspector Javert

Inspector Javert

Banned
On March 3, 1978, Prime Minister Ian Smith of the Republic of Rhodesia signed the Internal Settlement, which paved the way for majority rule in Rhodesia, which was then renamed "Zimbabwe Rhodesia" to represent both the white and black people of the country. The international community wasn't satisfied, so on December 21, 1979, the Lancaster House Agreement was signed and the country was renamed "Zimbabwe".

What would happen if Rhodesia had refused any kind of settlement , and decided to fight on to the bitter end, even if it cost them everything? (See the video below for an example of what I mean by "fight to the bitter end")

How long could they have lasted?

 

Asp

Inspector Javert said:
On March 3, 1978, Prime Minister Ian Smith of the Republic of Rhodesia signed the Internal Settlement, which paved the way for majority rule in Rhodesia, which was then renamed "Zimbabwe Rhodesia" to represent both the white and black people of the country. The international community wasn't satisfied, so on December 21, 1979, the Lancaster House Agreement was signed and the country was renamed "Zimbabwe".

What would happen if Rhodesia had refused any kind of settlement , and decided to fight on to the bitter end, even if it cost them everything? (See the video below for an example of what I mean by "fight to the bitter end")

How long could they have lasted?

Click to expand...

They would have lost by the early 1980s. The tide was turning even in 1979; it’s a commonly repeated saying that Rhodesia, like the U.S. in Vietnam, never lost a battle, but that wasn’t true right at the very end. Operation Uric was a battlefield defeat for them; they failed to achieve their objective of destroying the Mapai Camp, took unsustainable losses, and had to pull back. There are other examples. Within a couple of years, the numbers and equipment of the PF coupled with battlefield losses of both men and equipment (one Canberra bomber of the RhAF was flyable by the end of the war) and white emigration would have resulted in their military defeat.

By the last couple years of the war, the Rhodesian Security Forces were producing classified memos saying Salisbury could fall. They were lucky it ended when it did.
 

Mort the Reaper

I'm not an expert on the Rhodesian Bush War, but I fear the consequences might be a Zimbabwe or equivalent in an even worse state than our Zimbabwe.
 

Monk78

How much is RSA supporting them ? Can they retreat into SA and become raiders themselves ? Launching attacks from SA and neighboring Botswana

If the white militias have nothing to lose can they just take over Botswana ?
 
Inspector Javert

Inspector Javert

Banned
Nephi said:
That video has nothing to do with what you posted and it's also from a musical.
Click to expand...
I posted it to demonstrate what I mean by "fighting to the bitter end" and also because I love Les Mis. (see my username for proof)
Asp said:
They would have lost by the early 1980s. The tide was turning even in 1979; it’s a commonly repeated saying that Rhodesia, like the U.S. in Vietnam, never lost a battle, but that wasn’t true right at the very end. Operation Uric was a battlefield defeat for them; they failed to achieve their objective of destroying the Mapai Camp, took unsustainable losses, and had to pull back. There are other examples. Within a couple of years, the numbers and equipment of the PF coupled with battlefield losses of both men and equipment (one Canberra bomber of the RhAF was flyable by the end of the war) and white emigration would have resulted in their military defeat.

By the last couple years of the war, the Rhodesian Security Forces were producing classified memos saying Salisbury could fall. They were lucky it ended when it did.
Click to expand...
Would the white Rhodesian minority have wound up with an even less favorable settlement than the Lancaster House Agreement? (though it's hard to see how a less favorable settlement could have been created, given what happened to the whites who stayed in Rhodesia when it was renamed)
Mort the Reaper said:
I'm not an expert on the Rhodesian Bush War, but I fear the consequences might be a Zimbabwe or equivalent in an even worse state than our Zimbabwe.
Click to expand...
Or the consequences could be that Rhodesians live in big cities that are essentially huge fortresses, and the countryside is essentially impassible because of guerilla/terrorist activity, but then Rhodesia would be unable to import food, and would probably collapse.
Monk78 said:
How much is RSA supporting them ? Can they retreat into SA and become raiders themselves ? Launching attacks from SA and neighboring Botswana

If the white militias have nothing to lose can they just take over Botswana ?
Click to expand...
They could then create "Brodesia" (kinda like Brangelina). Now that I think about it, "Brodesia" sounds like some country that teenage boys would make.
Gillan1220 said:
Rhodesia would probably collapse by the mid-1980s.
Click to expand...
You don't think that the Rhodesian Army would be able to maintain control of Salisbury at the very least?
Comte de Dordogne said:
It would be "fun" to do a musical about Rhodesia.
Click to expand...
There's already dozens of Rhodesian songs ("Rhodesians Never Die", "The U.D.I. Song" and "Sweet Banana" are probably the most famous), you wouldn't even have to write new songs for a Rhodesia-themed musical, you could just make a jukebox musical like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movin'_Out_(musical)
 

Monk78

Inspector Javert said:
I posted it to demonstrate what I mean by "fighting to the bitter end" and also because I love Les Mis. (see my username for proof)

Would the white Rhodesian minority have wound up with an even less favorable settlement than the Lancaster House Agreement? (though it's hard to see how a less favorable settlement could have been created, given what happened to the whites who stayed in Rhodesia when it was renamed)

Or the consequences could be that Rhodesians live in big cities that are essentially huge fortresses, and the countryside is essentially impassible because of guerilla/terrorist activity, but then Rhodesia would be unable to import food, and would probably collapse.

They could then create "Brodesia" (kinda like Brangelina). Now that I think about it, "Brodesia" sounds like some country that teenage boys would make.

You don't think that the Rhodesian Army would be able to maintain control of Salisbury at the very least?

There's already dozens of Rhodesian songs ("Rhodesians Never Die", "The U.D.I. Song" and "Sweet Banana" are probably the most famous), you wouldn't even have to write new songs for a Rhodesia-themed musical, you could just make a jukebox musical like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movin'_Out_(musical)
Click to expand...
Can Botswana stop such an invasion? Who will come to their aid ?
 
Julius Vogel

Julius Vogel

One of the common themes of any account of the Bush War i've read is the absolutely dire state of Rhodesian manpower by the late 70s, due to emigration and increased demand. In other words, they had to operate at an increasing tempo with less men. They were also heavily reliant on territorial / reserve soldiers and these men also have jobs/businesses/lives.

The more men spend time on fighting, the less time they have to work and so that hits the economy and the government's ability to fund operations or buy in military supplies on the black market too.
 

walmart

At some point in the early 1980s South Africa is going intervene and evacuate the remaining White Population.
Zimbabwe may or may not fall into civil war between ZAPU and ZANU.
 

Ijon Tichy

Mort the Reaper said:
I'm not an expert on the Rhodesian Bush War, but I fear the consequences might be a Zimbabwe or equivalent in an even worse state than our Zimbabwe.
Click to expand...
I'd say it'd be much better off. Victory for the liberation forces in the field would lead to speedy redress of the land issue, which would be handled in a much more conducive environment than in our time line - and even in our timeline, it's results haven't been all bad (look up Ian Scoones' work on the long-term outcomes of the land reform for the new class of small and medium black farmers).
 

Ijon Tichy

Julius Vogel said:
One of the common themes of any account of the Bush War i've read is the absolutely dire state of Rhodesian manpower by the late 70s, due to emigration and increased demand. In other words, they had to operate at an increasing tempo with less men. They were also heavily reliant on territorial / reserve soldiers and these men also have jobs/businesses/lives.

The more men spend time on fighting, the less time they have to work and so that hits the economy and the government's ability to fund operations or buy in military supplies on the black market too.
Click to expand...
It's true, isn't it, that only about half the white males eligible for conscription actually turned up when called up?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top