WI Rhine Protectorate at Versailles

This may or may not be a REALLY GOOD IDEA™ but what if France pushed for, and successfully obtained the separation of the Rhineland as a protectorate during Versailles? A potential PoD is maybe Hughes winning the US elections in 1916 and the Republicans under Lodge still carry the senate, so with the US more or less backing French demands the UK's pleas to keep a balance of power in Europe fall on deaf ears. Such a move would probably entail significantly fewer reparations, as Germany loses a significant part of its industrial base.

I would assume the most natural course of action by France would be to create a reasonably independent Rhineland, probably including the Saar, that is economically tied to France. It seems reasonable there would be at least symbolic French and potentially Belgian garrisons.

Would desire for reunification by the populace prove to be too much to contain? Or could France successfully prop up a (at least reasonably) stable Rhenish government to the point where any reunification movement is weak enough to be quashed? Or does France's inevitable political quagmire lead to a loss of will to hold the region altogether?

Creating a Rhenish protectorate would lead to many butterflies, the most obvious one being prevention of aggressive German foreign policy unless France withdraws from said protectorate. How would this effect the actions of the UK or USSR?

Of course, the assumption here is that Germany would take it lying down - would they keep fighting when presented such a treaty even given their hopeless military situation? Could Germany "win" in the sense that France/US has to sacrifice so much for control over the Rhineland that they give up?
 
You are sort of describing the "Territory of the Saar Basin." But get rid of Wilson and the French get to carry out more of their attempted dissection of Germany.

A Catholic majority buffer state would have had a large amount of popular support. The problem is that you'd have the Bavarians and the Austrians wanting to be part of this state as well.
 
A satellite Rhine territory would require France (or Russia) to have a much more significant role in World War 1. However unlikely that is, let’s assume a Rheinish Republic is proclaimed in late 1918.

Immediately the French would have to deal with the German revolution, not only having to contend with communist but now also nationalist insurrections. I have no doubt given time the French could quell the partisans, but I would expect fierce guerrilla/urban fighting from the German peoples lasting up until at least 1920. Nationalism and Communism would be the leading parties for the first few elections.

Id also argue the effects a large territory filled with ethnic Germans being detached would result in an extremist Germany in Fascism or Communism. Assuming similar circumstances to OTL, the Weimar Republic relied on the industrious Rhine cities to stabilise and rebuild the country. Additionally American investment would flow into the new Rhine Republic which would present better economic opportunities than Weimar. The Kapp Putsch could see the establishment of a German millitary Junta as Germans demand revanchism, or the NSDAP/DNVP could assume control of the Reichstag much earlier. Authoritarianism will become even more preferable for the populace as a rejection of Western governments and Prussian millitarist tradition. This may even see the restoration of German royalty and nobility.

I’d be interested in seeing the politics of a Rhine Republic toward the mid-20s, the French could probably repress an extremist election result but could they repress the protests/rebellion that follows it? Upon taking a step back, this scenario could provide numerous PODs for a second Franco-Prussian war.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
You are sort of describing the "Territory of the Saar Basin." But get rid of Wilson and the French get to carry out more of their attempted dissection of Germany.

A Catholic majority buffer state would have had a large amount of popular support. The problem is that you'd have the Bavarians and the Austrians wanting to be part of this state as well.
There seems to have been a decent amount of support among the population of the Rhineland for a separation from Prussia, but the amount who would support a separation from the whole of Germany would be much lower. Especially if it involved French occupation and control of foreign affairs. There is also the question of reparations. France would likely try to extract the reparations from the Rhineland since it is the most industrialized region of Germany. This would destroy any remaining support for the French. Trying to extract reparations from the rump Germany instead would probably be vetoed by the UK and USA as being to vicious, and would likely cripple the economy of the rump Germany. But if rump Germany has been driven into poverty while the Rhineland maintains its prosperity this would increase support for continued independence.

A satellite Rhine territory would require France (or Russia) to have a much more significant role in World War 1. However unlikely that is, let’s assume a Rheinish Republic is proclaimed in late 1918.

Immediately the French would have to deal with the German revolution, not only having to contend with communist but now also nationalist insurrections. I have no doubt given time the French could quell the partisans, but I would expect fierce guerrilla/urban fighting from the German peoples lasting up until at least 1920. Nationalism and Communism would be the leading parties for the first few elections.

Id also argue the effects a large territory filled with ethnic Germans being detached would result in an extremist Germany in Fascism or Communism. Assuming similar circumstances to OTL, the Weimar Republic relied on the industrious Rhine cities to stabilise and rebuild the country. Additionally American investment would flow into the new Rhine Republic which would present better economic opportunities than Weimar. The Kapp Putsch could see the establishment of a German millitary Junta as Germans demand revanchism, or the NSDAP/DNVP could assume control of the Reichstag much earlier. Authoritarianism will become even more preferable for the populace as a rejection of Western governments and Prussian millitarist tradition. This may even see the restoration of German royalty and nobility.

I’d be interested in seeing the politics of a Rhine Republic toward the mid-20s, the French could probably repress an extremist election result but could they repress the protests/rebellion that follows it? Upon taking a step back, this scenario could provide numerous PODs for a second Franco-Prussian war.
Germany turning Communist would actually be good for France because it would force Britain to continue supporting France's ambitions on the continent instead of trying to restore relations with Germany in order to maintain a "balance" of power. Furthermore, it would destroy support for reunion with Germany among the Rhenish bourgeoisie. It also ensures that America's sympathies would remain with France, and forces the countries between Germany and the USSR into dependence on France for protection from the Communist powers to their west and east.
 
If France occupies it, then expect the populace to make it a living hell for the French, and reunification with Germany an absolute certainty. If the Rhineland is given a military, then Hitler has just been a fully militarized Rhineland to incorporate like Austria. The issue with an independent Rhineland is it's either a French client-state or just another reason for the Germans to vote in the Nazi party.

Regardless of what independence some Rheinish may have wanted at the time, it'll be overtaken by German propaganda making it out to be the German equivalent of Alsace-Lorraine.
 
A satellite Rhine territory would require France (or Russia) to have a much more significant role in World War 1.
I'm frankly unsure of how France could've had a more significant role in WWI short of winning the war on their own in a 1v1. My suggested PoD is Republicans win US elections in 1916 and subsequently decide to back French ambitions (meaning that the UK's wishes are moot). This might be very unrealistic though.

I’d be interested in seeing the politics of a Rhine Republic toward the mid-20s, the French could probably repress an extremist election result but could they repress the protests/rebellion that follows it? Upon taking a step back, this scenario could provide numerous PODs for a second Franco-Prussian war.
Assuming the French can repress the populace of the Rhineland or somehow get them to at least be ambivalent, the second Franco-Prussian war is almost certainly going to be a stomp. Whether or not the French can actually pacify the Rhineland is significantly more iffy.

There is also the question of reparations. France would likely try to extract the reparations from the Rhineland since it is the most industrialized region of Germany. This would destroy any remaining support for the French. Trying to extract reparations from the rump Germany instead would probably be vetoed by the UK and USA as being to vicious, and would likely cripple the economy of the rump Germany.
This is a good point - it'd be hard to expect the French to not demand any reparations whatsoever. But at the same time even a pro-French US wouldn't be much for reparations out of a Germany that had its greatest industrial region stolen away, but at the same time reparations from the Rhineland would be extremely unpopular.

If France occupies it, then expect the populace to make it a living hell for the French, and reunification with Germany an absolute certainty. If the Rhineland is given a military, then Hitler has just been a fully militarized Rhineland to incorporate like Austria.
In OTL, Anschluss was hardly a foregone conclusion, and was only allowed by Mussolini when he figured he could get more allying with Hitler than trying to avoid annoying France/UK. Here, there never is a real incentive for France to return the Rhineland outside of a protracted struggle by the Rhenish populace draining French political will. There would definitely be more demand for unification than OTL Austria since the Rhine had been part of Germany for a long time though.
 
There would be revanchism and severely limited economic opportunities for rump Germany, yes. But how much more badly than IOTL?

I suggest also taking into account what the separation of these two territories means for their political landscapes If we control for the above escalation. In that case, you end up with much of the liberal wing of the Zentrum in the Rhenish Republic, and some of the more moderate Social Democrats, too, along with strong liberals and very few conservative fiefs. The Rhenish Republic, if not viciously sabotaged, could work quite nicely.

Rump Germany on the other hand is more polarised than IOTL between strong conservatives and a much more conservative Zentrum on one hand and more left-leaning SPD and stronger communists, too. So even if we don't Account for ultra-revanchism, rump Germany looks in for a bumpy ride.
 
IOTL the Rhineland was divided into occupation zones, an American, a Belgian, a British and a French one. While the Americans had rather cordial relations with the German population in their zone and the British a decent one, the relations in the Belgian and especially the French occupation zones can only be described as absolutely toxic. Since the French military occupation authorities had problems finding enough willing to collaborate they ended up using criminals and I mean real criminals freed from jails as local auxiliary enforcers of their rhenish seperatistic policies. How well that went down is anyone's guess.
 
Top