The POD is Bobby Kennedy doesn't make that fatal detour through the Ambassador Hotel Kitchen, instead taking the planned route to the ballroom, and he goes on to sweep the Democratic primaries. However, Vice-President Hubert Humphrey wins the nomination off the strength of his establishment support and uncommitted delegates. Humphrey still loses to Nixon*. As the unofficial leader of the Democratic opposition to Nixon, Kennedy wins the 1972 nomination and runs a strong race - but narrowly loses in a three way election**. It looks like RFK'S national career might be over. But as Watergate is revealed and Nixon resigns, Americans wonder if Kennedy was cheated and they turn to him as a voice of calm and unity in their time of heartbreak. He easily wins the '76 Democratic nomination and chooses Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter.
A month later, Republicans hold their convention as President Ford and Governor Ronald Reagan duel for the nomination. Driven by his mortal hatred of Kennedy (who he blames for his firing from GE Theater in 1962), Reagan convinces Republicans that only he has the charisma and leadership skills to beat the popular Kennedy in November. By a margin of less than 30 delegates, Reagan upsets Ford and is nominated for President. He chooses Pennsylvania Senator Richard Schweiker as his running mate.
Under these circumstances, how would an RFK-Reagan match-up play out in the general election?
*Butterflies mean that Humphrey wins the popular vote.
**Butterflies see Arthur Bremer attempting to shoot Nixon as he intended. He fails, and George Wallace runs as a third party candidate.