WI: RFK never enters '68
- Thread starter JVM
- Start date
Humphrey wins the nomination easily. Assuming Nixon still wins, RFK probably waits till either '72 or '76 to run for President, depending on if Nixon is seen as unbeatable in '72 in this timeline. If butterflies allows for a Humphrey victory, then RFK definitely runs in '76.
Last edited:
Paul V McNutt
Banned
If Humphrey had RFK as his running mate, I think he would have led a united party to victory.
Would Bobby Kennedy ever accept being the number 2 man, to the number 2 man of the man he hated more than anyone else?
If it puts him in a position to run for the Oval Office, I think he might seriously consider it. Four or Eight years as VP would really enhance his credibility.
McCarthy carried all the primaries, with the Anti-War movement unified behind him rather than fractured between him and Senator Kennedy. The shock, or rather the sense that the nomination had been stolen from them will be all the stronger following Humphrey's victory in Chicago may drive McCarthy onto a path he thought about, but ultimately discarded; running in the general as a candidate dedicated to ending the war. Paul Newman I can see being his running-mate, if only because he is one of McCarthy's supporters, was on the fence about the idea of a 4th party ticket, and is a notable individual.
However McCarthy is going to lose a lot of support among the politicos once he declares in much the same way TR did when he bolted the Republicans in 1912. Ultimately, I don't see him doing more than half as well as George Wallace in the end, carrying no states, and allowing Nixon to claim victory with 400+ electoral votes.
However McCarthy is going to lose a lot of support among the politicos once he declares in much the same way TR did when he bolted the Republicans in 1912. Ultimately, I don't see him doing more than half as well as George Wallace in the end, carrying no states, and allowing Nixon to claim victory with 400+ electoral votes.
I can't see it, if only because that would become an albatross when he tried to run in his own right; he risks alienating his support base by running with Humphrey and, by extension, the Johnson Administration.
HHH gets the nomination easily. Only a few hundred delegates of roughly 2600 were decided by primaries. Rest are controlled by Daley & Co. As for the GE, I agree with Ariosto. RFK will definitely not be on the ticket. If he runs in '76 then he has to surrender his Senate seat.
Maybe he stays in the Senate and becomes like Ted was OTL, while Ted Kennedy waits a decade or two before making his own run?
If Nixon's second term goes anything like OTL then the risk would be minimal. As for Senate, it was a mean to the presidential end. Completely wrong personality and hated the glacial pace there. Ted won't run if Bobby's still alive. An ATL Watergate would probably have RFK as Nixon's Enemy #1, but IMO he'd be more cautious than gleeful. After all, Nixon's methods weren't terribly different from his own.
Paul V McNutt
Banned
I have always wanted for RFK to run in 1980. I figure after President Humphrey's two terms a Republican I'll say Howard Baker runs and wins in the bad economic times of 1976. Four years later President Baker faces a bad economy and a hostage crisis, RFK wins big. People fondly the good economic times of the 80s and give the credit to President Kennedy. Bobby Kennedy made me proud to be an American.
I sincerely doubt he would, but I do believe a Humphrey/Kennedy ticket would have done very well, even had they not won.
Would it be possible for Kennedy to rally support for Humphrey among the party in exchange for something else to increase his credentials in the event Humphrey wins? Secretary of State Kennedy, perhaps?
Bobby somehow getting to sit out 1972 and yet remain viable for 1976, that's a thing hereabouts, I think.
A living RFK is in a world of trouble if the revelations about the Diem coup, and the assassination attempts on Castro, all come out as per OTL. (And the Diem reveal isn't just the Pentagon Papers; it first started to come out in an overlooked memoir by one of the Camelot advisers published in 1965!)
If the coup is fully litigated in anti-Bobby Dem politics at some point, it'll put him on the spot, make him look no different than an LBJ or Nixon official defending their boss' actions in the war.
If Mongoose is fully litigated, the Democratic insurgents will eat him alive, even accounting for the fact that too much culpability for illegal actions against Cuba was attributed to RFK posthumously IOTL; of course, a living Kennedy won't do himself any favours by strongly disavowing knowledge of Mafia involvement in that illegal CIA war, a war which he must admit to having run...
This is before we get to his complicity in some of Hoover's shenanigans, not to mention impotence in the face of other FBI outrages.
Long story short, this stuff feeds into my belief that Moonbeam sucks a lot of the air out of RFK's presidential ambitions come 1976, if they still exist at that point.
It all depends on who wins in '68 and how their term goes. Another kink: if HHH's people are less complacent on the Chicago floor at DNC '68, they can kill the resolution which led to McGovern-Fraser, per Teddy White.
Given the nature of the polls, especially considering Muskie and Ted Kennedy were leading Nixon for some time, I think RFK would have performed even better, and on that basis have thrown his hat into the ring.
However, that depends on when that other information you mentioned comes out, as I'm not that familiar with it.
I think Nixon would have tried to get Nelson Rockefeller to run against RFK in 1970 for Kennedy's senate seat. Rockefeller would rebuff Nixon and not run against RFK. Nixon would have to settle on probably New York's Lt. Governor Malcolm Wilson running against RFK. The Nixon White House would be very involved in Wilson's campaign probably trying to use some dirty tricks. But Kennedy's high profile and his own ability to use some dirty tricks would lead him to victory over Wilson in 1970. Nixon would fear after Kennedy's re-election to the senate that he'd be primed to run for president in 1972.
I think by late 1971 RFK would look at his chances of winning in 1972 and it would depend on how vulnerable Nixon was in late 1971-early 1972. If Nixon looks vulnerable he'll run otherwise he'll wait until 1976. By 1976 he'd be sick of the senate anyway, so he'd be ready to either go to the White House or go back to New York.
If he runs in 1972 his running mate would probably be Terry Sanford and if he had ran in 1976 his running mate would have been Reubin Askew or maybe Jimmy Carter.
I think by late 1971 RFK would look at his chances of winning in 1972 and it would depend on how vulnerable Nixon was in late 1971-early 1972. If Nixon looks vulnerable he'll run otherwise he'll wait until 1976. By 1976 he'd be sick of the senate anyway, so he'd be ready to either go to the White House or go back to New York.
If he runs in 1972 his running mate would probably be Terry Sanford and if he had ran in 1976 his running mate would have been Reubin Askew or maybe Jimmy Carter.
Because he did. RFK entering the race wasn't his only reason for dropping out of the race (accomplishing most of his domestic agenda, Vietnam hurting him, McCarthy's popularity, his declining health, pressure from Lady Bird to retire, etc.).