WI: RFK if Kennedy Lived

In the OTL, Robert Kennedy left the White House to run for Senator of New York and thereafter attempted to win the nomination in 1968. In the wake of the assassination, he appeared a transformed person for the better having gone through that horrific event. To be frank, Bobby before the assassination comes off like much more of a sonofabitch lacking traits that seem to form after the assassination of his brother (concern for social justice, ability to take charge and speak with authority, etc).

If President Kennedy had not been killed, the plan for the cabinet (this coming from RogueBeaver) was to send Rusk to the UN, Katzenbach to Attorney General, McNamara to State and Robert Kennedy would be made Secretary of Defense. RFK left the White House after the Kennedy assassination because he couldn't stand Johnson, nor could Johnson stand him. Had there not been an assassination, he would have remained in the White House, or at least he would have as best I can surmise.

Beyond that knowledge, what would have become of Robert Kennedy had John F. Kennedy have never been murdered? How would he do as Secretary of Defense and what would he have suggested (especially concerning Vietnam) and how much more could he have gotten the President to listen to him compared to McNamara? What would his political career path be after John Kennedy leaves office? Bear in mind that, if he remains in the White House, he has never held any elected office and is therefore in a far weaker position to make any run for the presidency in 1968 (both getting the nomination and having enough experience to be capable of the presidency). And, a very important point, what would Bobby Kennedy be like as a person if his brother is not assassinated and if history unfolds differently? This would be very important to how he acts and governs.
 

bguy

Donor
Beyond that knowledge, what would have become of Robert Kennedy had John F. Kennedy have never been murdered? How would he do as Secretary of Defense and what would he have suggested (especially concerning Vietnam) and how much more could he have gotten the President to listen to him compared to McNamara? What would his political career path be after John Kennedy leaves office? Bear in mind that, if he remains in the White House, he has never held any elected office and is therefore in a far weaker position to make any run for the presidency in 1968 (both getting the nomination and having enough experience to be capable of the presidency). And, a very important point, what would Bobby Kennedy be like as a person if his brother is not assassinated and if history unfolds differently? This would be very important to how he acts and governs.

Hoover and Eisenhower have both been elected President within recent memory without having ever held elective office before, so I don't see why that would necessarily stop Bobby. (Especially since he has held two of the most important Cabinet positions.) I agree though that he wouldn't run in 1968. The American people wouldn't like the idea of a brother succeeding a brother to the Presidency, and RFK was smart enough to know that.

Anyway, if the Republicans hold the New York Senate seat in '64, then Bobby could always run for that in 1970. That would set him up nicely for a '76 presidental run. Alternatively if the Democrats win the New York Senate race in '64 then he could always move to Massachusetts and run for that seat in '72 (though that might be a little awkward with his brother holding the other Massachusetts seat.)

Out of curiosity did RFK ever express any interest in the Supreme Court? If so is there any possibility that Nixon (or Humphrey) would appoint him? RFK certainly has the law and order credentials Nixon would like on the court and such a move would make Nixon look magnaminous for appointing the brother of the man who defeated him while helping to take a potential opponent for '72 off the board. And its not like accepting a Supreme Court spot would foreclose any future presidential ambitions RFK might have. He could always pull a Charles Evans Hughes later on and step down from the court to run for President. (RFK is young enough that he could potentially still be a plausible presidential candidate as late as 1992, so he certainly has plenty of time.)
 
Personality: I'm of the belief that people are multifaceted with different parts of their personality ebbing and flowing depending on circumstance. In RFK's case the "soft side" often talked about was quite visible in his youth but Joe Sr. wanted him toughened up. ((Too much like his sisters and all that) It'll be there but submerged unless a similarly traumatic event happens.

Career: Depends what happens in 'Nam, and unless we want yet another JFK Lives thread... in the abstract a Senate seat in either MA or NY seems the best path for him. Probably NY.

SCOTUS: No. RFK hated the Senate pace/MO IOTL, he probably won't like that sort of sedate career. Plus he's never practiced law. HHH might offer, Nixon certainly wouldn't.
 
Personality: I'm of the belief that people are multifaceted with different parts of their personality ebbing and flowing depending on circumstance. In RFK's case the "soft side" often talked about was quite visible in his youth but Joe Sr. wanted him toughened up. ((Too much like his sisters and all that) It'll be there but submerged unless a similarly traumatic event happens.

Career: Depends what happens in 'Nam, and unless we want yet another JFK Lives thread... in the abstract a Senate seat in either MA or NY seems the best path for him. Probably NY.

SCOTUS: No. RFK hated the Senate pace/MO IOTL, he probably won't like that sort of sedate career. Plus he's never practiced law. HHH might offer, Nixon certainly wouldn't.

Who says Nixon is running in '68. Rocky could run and win, just like hcallega has it happen.
 

bguy

Donor
Who says Nixon is running in '68. Rocky could run and win, just like hcallega has it happen.

1968 is probably too late for Rockefeller to win the GOP presidential nomination. The conservative wing of the party is too strong at that point, and they really don't like Rocky. If Nixon stumbles or decides not to run then the nomination probably goes to Reagan.
 
Perhaps Bobby could run for Governor of NY in 1970? If Rocky wins in '68, he might be able to beat Malcolm Wilson. Assuming he was reelected this would obviously put him in a good position for 1976 or 1980. Although if Rocky can't capture the WH, I don't see much of a path for Bobby, as Rockefeller won in 1970 with 52% of the vote to his Democratic challenger's 40%, a margin that would be difficult for even a charismatic candidate to close.
 
Elsewhere I've mused about the idea of a living RFK running up against Governor Jerry Brown in the seventies, when it comes to his own longterm concerns for holding liberal intelligentsia-, heterodox moderate-, and I guess youth outreach-support.

But considering Moonbeam is in law school at the time of Dallas, that's breaking my rule about waving away too many possible butterflies... whereas in OTL's 1968 he and elements of his dad's crew must have been already plotting their own Cali restoration against a tall, crude, usurper cowboy.:D (Seriously, his first successful campaign for local government is the year after Bobby's death.)

However, if RFK is working in his brother's admin until 1969, I don't think he has to worry about defending a broadchurch Left-to-centre-with-a-little-centre-Right coalition against encroachment from any AltBrown. Because no such entity is going to exist for him when he leaves the Cabinet after eight years.

I think, apart from having his brother's faithful retainers, he's going to be starting from scratch in Dem bridgebuilding, as I believe Pat Moynihan had to after his years with Nixon.

A lot of Camelot symphathisers are going to look at Bobby as the guy who used to humiliate Chester Bowles and LBJ in admin meetings. "I thought he was a kind of liberal fascist," was Johnson's opinion of RFK IOTL--I expect there will eventually be a lot of folk like Galbraith who will be influenced by this opinion from their fellow old maudlin' New Dealer. These guys, they sure won't decide to conflate RFK's style with Pablo Casals' performance in the East Wing when they look back at his brother's two terms.

And oh yeah, this is the great opportunity for HHH to be the true dissident liberal with crazy Norman Mailer- and Hunter S. Thompson-fanbois supporters, the role first assumed by McCarthy in 1968 and carried on by McGovern in 1972. Or he may be a little more reserved towards the New Left, like RFK in OTL was.
 
Perhaps Bobby could run for Governor of NY in 1970? If Rocky wins in '68, he might be able to beat Malcolm Wilson. Assuming he was reelected this would obviously put him in a good position for 1976 or 1980. Although if Rocky can't capture the WH, I don't see much of a path for Bobby, as Rockefeller won in 1970 with 52% of the vote to his Democratic challenger's 40%, a margin that would be difficult for even a charismatic candidate to close.

I think there's a good chance Nixon would ratfuck Bobby here, if he's POTUS.
 
I think there's a good chance Nixon would ratfuck Bobby here, if he's POTUS.

As much as he did Teddy, at least. He'd be worried about Bobby running in 1972 and would do what he could to make sure that either didn't happen, that Bobby was being screwed with from the government (revenge for Bobby auditing his mother), or that when it did start to become a possibility that Bobby was being screwed with so it didn't happen.

In the OTL, Nixon had secret service people look after Ted during the 1972 election period. That was so that no one could say, if Teddy got shot, that the president didn't protect him. It was also so that he could hear from those men (I think it may have only been one Eisenhower era secret service guy Nixon knew and brought in) what was going on with Teddy and get any dirt on him.
In this ATL, there'd be no reason for Nixon to put secret service on Bobby since the Kennedy's won't have been shot. Although perhaps he could still do it, saying it was for protection while really using it to spy.

That is, of course, if Nixon becomes president in 1968.
 
New York State primaries were up and running in 1970, pretty much as we know then today.

That year seems like RFK's best shorttern bet, but he should face a serious anti-war opponent at this point. But is it too early for a New Left Dem to deny a Dem regular that spot on the ticket, ala Ramsay Clark beating the Mayor of Syracuse for the 1974 senate nomination?

Ex-SecDef Bobby might luck out, and ride over a disorganised Left. Or he may get Liebermaned.

And I think Jack being alive is a boost in one pivotal area--fundraising.

I've mentioned before that RFK had to go begging to the sob in Oval Office to get the Dem national committee to give him much needed funds for his '64 race; apparently this was one area where he was the lifelong dilettante public servant, not the tough political operator.
 

Max Rakus

Banned
Maybe if RFK ran with Carter in 1976 he would win more of the south,
but I'm stuck on him winning in 1980, I mean these two are insanely worshiped by the political followings, hell it could be like 2000 all over again!.
 
Question though, When did the amendment/rule for presedential family memebers serving in cabinet? May not be so easy to jump from job to job.
 
I think if JFK lived passed 1963 and has managed to serve two terms in the White House then it's likely Kennedy will prove unpopular after sending troops into Vietnam while becomes a quagmire by the 1968 election and just as unpopular, he fails to pass significance civil rights legislation passed a bitter GOP majority Congress, etc. Even if there is no war and JFK pulls out the advisers from Vietnam, he still won't do much in his second term and won't likely succeed in passing much progressive reform such as civil rights and the great society. Johnson will be liked by the Southern GOP and be seen more progressive and strong-willed than Kennedy was. He should get the nomination in 1968.

Both Kennedy brothers will probably be seen as being very similar to one another and without Dallas and the death of his father Robert probably won't have White House ambitions. The Democratic nomination goes to Vice-President Johnson in 1968 who is more popular and either gets reelected in 1972 or Humphrey gets in 1972. I see maybe RFK running in 1976 and having some sort of chance to get the Democratic nomination, but he will lose out to Reagan as the Americans grow tired of that party and will not likely seek a bid at the Presidency after this time.
 
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President Humphrey's unsuccessful 1972 opponent is Ronald Reagan. gGerald Ford did not have White House ambitions until he lived there.
 
If Kennedy lives then I see a marginal defeat for the Democratic nomination to Hubert Humphrey and maybe even see Humphrey go on to beat Nixon in 1968. With Humphrey as President, the Vietnam War ends earlier in 1969, more of Johnson's policies are implemented and social welfare expands. Humprey probably wins reelection in 72 and Robert becomes the Democratic nominee in 1976. He is pitted against either Gerald Ford or Ronald Reagan for the White House to which the American public are probably tired of Johnson esque welfare spending while the US economy begins to tank. He will lose and a Republic will win in 1976. If he wins, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Iranian Revolution, worsening economy continue to occur and he is unable to do much about the economy, but still gets the blame for the crisis. He probably ends up as scapegoat one term President by being defeated in 1980.
This is a discussion about RFK in a scenario where President Kennedy lives, not about RFK living instead of being assassinated in the OTL 1968. That topic has been covered a million times and will be covered a million more, but that's not this topic. This topic is something I've never seen covered.
When asking "What if JFK lived?" all sorts of details like this are peripheral, if discussed at all, and generally they aren't discussed at all. That's why I made this topic. I'm interested in things like how Robert Kennedy would be and what he'd be if JFK lived, or Jackie Kennedy or John Jr. or Lyndon Johnson, or what would become of the Counter Culture or what would become of Music and the Cultural scene, or any things like that which no one covers.
 
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