WI RFK Gets The Nomination in 1968?

Was reading this article and wanted some of your thoughts.
RFK doesn't get shot by Sirhan Sirhan and goes on to win the nomination. He picks a VP to reconcile like Terry Sanford. Nixon doesn't try or gets caught sabotaging peace talks and RFK gets a boost. Everything else proceeds as OTL.

Let me preface this by saying I'm a huge fan of RFK. His speeches and accomplishments have inspired me since childhood and IMO he was the best President we've never had.

That said, him winning the nomination in 1968 is a long shot. With the anti-war vote split between himself and McCarthy, and with Kennedy far behind Humphrey in delegates at the time of his death, winning the nomination would've been a massive uphill climb. Even if Kennedy had gone on to win most of the primaries after CA (which is very likely), he'd still be behind Humphrey in delegates and it would be hard for Kennedy to convince the machine politicians who backed HHH to support him instead.

But if nominated, Kennedy would probably have beaten Nixon.
 
Let me preface this by saying I'm a huge fan of RFK. His speeches and accomplishments have inspired me since childhood and IMO he was the best President we've never had.

That said, him winning the nomination in 1968 is a long shot. With the anti-war vote split between himself and McCarthy, and with Kennedy far behind Humphrey in delegates at the time of his death, winning the nomination would've been a massive uphill climb. Even if Kennedy had gone on to win most of the primaries after CA (which is very likely), he'd still be behind Humphrey in delegates and it would be hard for Kennedy to convince the machine politicians who backed HHH to support him instead.

But if nominated, Kennedy would probably have beaten Nixon.

Apparently,Daley was coming around to him by the time he was assassinated. Could this have had a butterfly affect?
It wasn’t just that Daley controlled the huge Illinois delegation; it was that he would signal to old-line Democrats around the country that he, as shrewd a political judge as any, had concluded that Bobby, not Hubert, was the only way to defeat Nixon in November. According to Thurston Clarke’s book The Last Campaign, Daley had told an RFK ally that “if he wins California, he’ll be okay.” A Daley endorsement would have meant the dramatic resetting of the political terrain
 
Apparently,Daley was coming around to him by the time he was assassinated. Could this have had a butterfly affect?

I'm familiar with the Daley quote. My problem is that he isn't signalling that he'll endorse Kennedy. Rather, he's simply saying that RFK's campaign will be "all right" if he wins CA. That doesn't mean Daley wouldn't have endorsed Kennedy. Perhaps by the time of the convention, Daley would've been convinced that RFK had the strongest chance of beating Nixon. After all, he supported a movement to draft Ted Kennedy in place of HHH. But I'm not 100% sure that he'd have supported RFK.

Anyway, had Daley been convinced that RFK was the one to beat Nixon, then Kennedy likely wins the nomination and narrowly prevails in the general.
 

kernals12

Banned
It's difficult for a party to hold the white house for 3 straight elections. There was a brewing backlash towards the Great Society. I still think Nixon would win.
 
It all depends on the polls of who has the best chance to beat Nixon in the Fall campaign.
While Humphrey had the lead in delegates coming in the convention, they were technically unpledge and they could switch to Kennedy if they thought that he had the best chance and more importantly if he was the best candidate to help their local candidates.
As for the general election, I really don't have a clue because I haven't been able to find a head to head match up of Kennedy vs Nixon vs Wallace just before the California Primary, but I think if Kennedy was within 5 points of Nixon in August he would have won.
 
It all depends on the polls of who has the best chance to beat Nixon in the Fall campaign.
While Humphrey had the lead in delegates coming in the convention, they were technically unpledge and they could switch to Kennedy if they thought that he had the best chance and more importantly if he was the best candidate to help their local candidates.
As for the general election, I really don't have a clue because I haven't been able to find a head to head match up of Kennedy vs Nixon vs Wallace just before the California Primary, but I think if Kennedy was within 5 points of Nixon in August he would have won.

I agree. However I wonder if RFK would've been re-elected in 1972. By then, the backlash against liberalism - as well as voter fatigue - might be too strong to overcome. However if the GOP nominates Reagan, then Kennedy could pull off an upset.
 
I agree. However I wonder if RFK would've been re-elected in 1972. By then, the backlash against liberalism - as well as voter fatigue - might be too strong to overcome. However if the GOP nominates Reagan, then Kennedy could pull off an upset.
A Dominant-Party system lasting from 1960 to 1976? Oh boy, that would be even longer than Reagan and H.W. Bush's entire era combined. Though if Congress goes solidly republican in 1972 or 1974, then RFK will become nothing more than a lameduck and might as well do nothing.
 
A Dominant-Party system lasting from 1960 to 1976? Oh boy, that would be even longer than Reagan and H.W. Bush's entire era combined. Though if Congress goes solidly republican in 1972 or 1974, then RFK will become nothing more than a lameduck and might as well do nothing.

By 1975 he'd be a lame duck as Congress goes Republican for the first time in 20 years. But from 1969-1974 he could accomplish a lot. The war probably ends in his first term, and you'd still see the environmental reforms passed under Nixon. (Contrary to what many Nixon apologists would have you believe, those weren't his initiatives and he even vetoed some of them). You'd also see urban development programs like the ones RFK supported as a Senator. Universal health care may also be passed in some form.
 
Would George Wallace have more electoral votes or would Nixon still win them over with the Southern strategy?

It really depends on turnout and RFK’s campaign. In the areas of abject poverty in Appalachia, Kennedy and his vision for the future was extremely popular, while his name was a black mark to more affluent areas of the South. Tennessee Senator Al Gore Sr. got tarred as a Kennedy stooge which cost him his seat in 1970, but that doesn’t mean that Robert Kennedy couldn’t have won the state two years earlier.
 
It really depends on turnout and RFK’s campaign. In the areas of abject poverty in Appalachia, Kennedy and his vision for the future was extremely popular, while his name was a black mark to more affluent areas of the South. Tennessee Senator Al Gore Sr. got tarred as a Kennedy stooge which cost him his seat in 1970, but that doesn’t mean that Robert Kennedy couldn’t have won the state two years earlier.

He could manage to narrowly win a few states in the upper South. But the lower South is Wallace territory. I imagine that Nixon still wins Florida.
 
I wonder what would've happened to Nixon if he'd lost to RFK. I imagine that he'd remain a prominent voice on foreign policy and make a good living continuing his New York law practice. But in the long run, he'd probably be remembered as a two time loser like Dewey or Stevenson - except that he has the additional distinction of losing to two Kennedys.
 
I wonder what would've happened to Nixon if he'd lost to RFK. I imagine that he'd remain a prominent voice on foreign policy and make a good living continuing his New York law practice. But in the long run, he'd probably be remembered as a two time loser like Dewey or Stevenson - except that he has the additional distinction of losing to two Kennedys.
Nixon would be a tragic figure kind of like William Jennings Bryan.
 
Nixon would be a tragic figure kind of like William Jennings Bryan.

Maybe more so if the Presidency was twice in his grasp, only for it to be taken away twice by the same family. Bryan never had a real chance of becoming President. That said, I think Nixon would have a much better post-political career than Bryan.
 
Maybe more so if the Presidency was twice in his grasp, only for it to be taken away twice by the same family. Bryan never had a real chance of becoming President. That said, I think Nixon would have a much better post-political career than Bryan.

William Jennings Bryan very much could of become President of the United States. In 1896, he lost by roughly 5 percent of the popular vote and about 50 Electoral votes. Not as narrow as 1960, but it’s well within the realm of possibility for him to have won.
 
A Dominant-Party system lasting from 1960 to 1976? Oh boy, that would be even longer than Reagan and H.W. Bush's entire era combined

If the Democrats control the White House for 16 years, might a more prolonged dominance of the Presidency by one party at a time become more common? The GOP could control the White House for the next 8-12 years after 1976. By 1988, the norm might be parties switching in and out of the White House every 12 years - not eight.

As an example:

35. John F. Kennedy (1961-1963), D-MA
36. Lyndon B. Johnson (1963-1969), D-TX
37. Robert F. Kennedy (1969-1977), D-NY

38. Ronald Reagan (1977-1985), R-CA
39. Charles H. Percy (1985-1989), R-IL

40. Mario Cuomo (1989-1997), D-NY
41. Al Gore (1997-2001), D-TN
 
If the Democrats control the White House for 16 years, might a more prolonged dominance of the Presidency by one party at a time become more common? The GOP could control the White House for the next 8-12 years after 1976. By 1988, the norm might be parties switching in and out of the White House every 12 years - not eight.

Interesting. Might this also retard the realignment of our political system so we could see wonky maps like democrats taking CA and NY but also getting some more conservative states like LA and MO? How about something like IL, the deep south,CA, and OR for republicans?
 
Interesting. Might this also retard the realignment of our political system so we could see wonky maps like democrats taking CA and NY but also getting some more conservative states like LA and MO? How about something like IL, the deep south,CA, and OR for republicans?

I think it depends on how long the RFK coalition can last, and who the Republicans nominate in 1972 and '76.
 
Yeah, I love RFK, but if I’m honest, it’s not very likely he would have gotten the nomination if he lived. That said, one possible alternative that I recently learned might have been possible is that RFK becomes HHH running mate, as HHH apparently privately wanted RFK as his VP. This would have turn LBJ against HHH sooner, but it might have allowed HHH to beat Nixon.
 
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