Nixon probably wasn't going to lose against anyone in 1972, and RFK would have probably had sufficiently good political instinct to sit it out.

Nixon was trailing the Democrats in the polls as late as 1971. I think RFK would run out of a sense of conviction to stop the war and heal social divisions being widened by Nixon. He'd lose to Nixon in a close race similar to 2004. Close enough that after Watergate RFK is given a second chance in 1976.

Following the events of Watergate, he'd have been the inevitable nominee (barring scandal, illness or death) in 1976, with George Wallace perhaps being his only major opponent. Knowing this well in advance, the GOP may well have decided that they needed a star to take on RFK, and so perhaps Reagan would have actually received the nomination that year, thus setting up an epic battle in the general election. RFK would probably had emerged triumphant.

If Reagan makes the argument that only he has the charisma to defeat Kennedy, Ford will counter attack by saying Reagan is too conservative to beat RFK. So I think Ford is still the nominee, but Reagan may or may not face Kennedy in 1980. But you are right that an RFK-Reagan race would be pretty epic. Reagan hated Kennedy and blamed him for getting fired from General Electric Theater, while Kennedy hated Reagan for humilating him in a 1967 TV debate on Vietnam. That said, if Reagan is nominated in 1976 he'd almost certainly lose (even to Jimmy Carter) and he'd be remembered as Goldwater Part Deux. In 1980 the Republicans nominate Baker, Bush, or some other moderate.
 

Bomster

Banned
Nixon was trailing the Democrats in the polls as late as 1971. I think RFK would run out of a sense of conviction to stop the war and heal social divisions being widened by Nixon. He'd lose to Nixon in a close race similar to 2004. Close enough that after Watergate RFK is given a second chance in 1976.
Honestly, I think RFK could have pulled it off in 1972.

Let's say that he doesn't run in 1968. That's easy. Just have Kennedy's preferred candidate George McGovern run instead of Gene McCarthy in the primaries (which is something he very nearly did).

George McGovern, running as the sole standard bearer for the anti-war movement, would perform very well in the primaries, collecting all of the votes that went to Bobby and Gene IOTL. After being almost defeated by a South Dakotan of all people, President Johnson still leaves the race, and with that Humphrey joins in. As McGovern gathers delegates through primaries, and Humphrey behind closed doors, the race going into the Convention becomes quite close. However, Humphrey still wins. This disappoints Robert Kennedy, who is at the Convention to support McGovern. This also disappoints the protesters outside, who riot.

The 1968 DNC is still remembered for all of it's chaos, so when Humphrey runs against Nixon he still loses.

Kennedy, seeing the continued decay of the cities and the endless violence wrought by Vietnam, begins to regret not running in 1968, which furthers his resolve for 1972. As he wins re-election to the Senate in 1970, Kennedy becomes the most outspoken opponent of the Nixon administration, whom he charges with continuing to divide America. It becomes very apparent to both voters and party bosses that Bobby will be the front-runner in 1972.

As 1971 draws to a close, Bobby doesn't hesitate a second time. He declares himself a Presidential candidate. With the newly-expanded primary season rapidly approaching, the three biggest contenders for the nomination are Robert Kennedy, Ed Muskie, and George Wallace. Robert Kennedy performs fairly well against the two in the first primaries, but then his entire crusade nearly comes to an end in Wisconsin. After a debate between Kennedy and Wallace, the ill Arthur Bremer shoots Kennedy from across a crowd. Kennedy is very nearly killed, but he survives with little long-term injury. The assassination attempt propels Kennedy to near saintdom, a la Reagan 1981 IOTL, and he easily sweeps the rest of the primaries to win the nomination in sweltering Miami. With most of the Democratic Party behind him now, Kennedy sets his sights at Nixon, determined to dethrone the tyrant who so selfishly let America burn in order to preserve his power.

Despite being fairly popular, especially because of his trip to China, Nixon is still very, very, VERY paranoid at the point. Seeing the charging Kennedy as heralding the end of his Presidency, as well as coming under some suspicion because of his corrupt VP Agnew, Nixon tries to use every trick in the book to smear Bobby Kennedy. He could expose JFK's affairs, or Bobby Kennedy's involvement in wiretapping, or reveal some other damaging material, or even try to spread those unfounded rumors that Bobby and Marilyn Monroe had an affair. He would try to paint Kennedy as the friend of the hippies, but he would have a much harder time doing this because of Kennedy's law and order rhetoric. He also would probably have CREEP still participate in their illegal activities, perhaps even at a more frantic pace. This could mean that they could slip up and make a mistake as they had in Watergate much earlier, perhaps proving to America that their President is a crook much earlier, just like in my favorite TL McGoverning.

Whatever happens, Kennedy would be a much, much stronger candidate to oppose Nixon than McGovern was, running with a less divided party and a better organized campaign. Not only that but without Bremer shooting him, Wallace runs a third party campaign just as he did in 1968, choosing Lester Maddox as his running mate. So, as Americans enter the polls, no one knows who will triumph.

The results begin coming in. The northeast and Industrial midwest vote for Kennedy. The Deep South sticks with their man Wallace. Nixon and Kennedy both are tied in the electoral count, with the decider of the election being the nation's most populous state: California. Whoever wins there wins the Presidency.

Everyone holds their breath as the Californian votes are counted, until finally a winner is announced. ROBERT KENNEDY WINS CALIFORNIA. And with that, the prince had successfully knocked the tyrant off of his pedestal.

Ok I know this may not be the most realistic scenario (I know more about '68 than '72), but I feel like it could have gone like this if Kennedy lived to 1972. Kennedy would most likely face many economic troubles, but he would be remembered for finally getting us out of Vietnam and for healing America's divisions. He would face Ronnie in '76, and would probably win. This leaves us with Bush Sr. winning in '80, and the rest is history. What do you guys think? It's not anything for a TL (that will be something a little different), just a fun little scenario I thought up. How would an RFK presidency fare from 1973-1981? What could he accomplish? How would he be remembered? What could Nixon have dug up to smear RFK? Could he have even won in the first place, even if Nixon's nefarious activities are exposed earlier?
 
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Ok I know this may not be the most realistic scenario (I know more about '68 than '72), but I feel like it could have gone like this if Kennedy lived to 1972. Kennedy would most likely face many economic troubles, but he would be remembered for finally getting us out of Vietnam and for healing America's divisions. He would face Ronnie in '76, and would probably win. This leaves us with Bush Sr. winning in '80, and the rest is history. What do you guys think? It's not anything for a TL (that will be something a little different), just a fun little scenario I thought up. How would an RFK presidency fare from 1973-1981? What could he accomplish? How would he be remembered? What could Nixon have dug up to smear RFK? Could he have even won in the first place, even if Nixon's nefarious activities are exposed earlier?

It's pretty interesting actually. Like I said earlier, an RFK vs Nixon matchup in 1972 would look like 2004 in that it'd be very close. I do think Nixon would win on the momentum he gets from the "peace is at hand" October surprise, just as Bush benefitted from Bin Laden's surprise tape condemning him in 2004. But a one term Nixon is pretty interesting. He'd be remembered as a mediocre President, Watergate would only be a footnote if anything. I agree that RFK would win a second term in 1976 - Ford nearly won as it was. If Bush wins in 1980 and serves two terms, then perhaps a Democrat might be elected in 1988. (Cuomo? Dukakis? Gore?)
 
Let's say that he doesn't run in 1968. That's easy. Just have Kennedy's preferred candidate George McGovern run instead of Gene McCarthy in the primaries (which is something he very nearly did).

Another interesting thing here is that McGovern might actually do worse than McCarthy in New Hampshire, where many of his votes came from people who wanted LBJ to be tougher on Vietnam, not dovish. That surprise 42% in NH mostly came from both doves and Hawks who simply disapproved of Johnson's handling of the war, not necessarily those who opposed the war altogether. Given McGovern's even more outspoken anti-war stance, he'd probably do worse than McCarthy and so LBJ may still stay in the race depending on how well he does in that first primary. I think Nixon would beat him in November, Johnson was more unpopular than Humphrey and his approval ratings were in the upper 30's.
 

Bomster

Banned
Another interesting thing here is that McGovern might actually do worse than McCarthy in New Hampshire, where many of his votes came from people who wanted LBJ to be tougher on Vietnam, not dovish. That surprise 42% in NH mostly came from both doves and Hawks who simply disapproved of Johnson's handling of the war, not necessarily those who opposed the war altogether. Given McGovern's even more outspoken anti-war stance, he'd probably do worse than McCarthy and so LBJ may still stay in the race depending on how well he does in that first primary. I think Nixon would beat him in November, Johnson was more unpopular than Humphrey and his approval ratings were in the upper 30's.
Maybe McGovern’s poor performance is what pushes Bobby Kennedy into the race ITTL, and unlike McCarthy, McGovern drops out to focus on his Senate re-election campaign, leaving RFK the only peace candidate.
 

Bomster

Banned
Maybe McGovern’s poor performance is what pushes Bobby Kennedy into the race ITTL, and unlike McCarthy, McGovern drops out to focus on his Senate re-election campaign, leaving RFK the only peace candidate.
Actually, scratch that. If anything it would dissuade Bobby from running probably.
 
Actually, scratch that. If anything it would dissuade Bobby from running probably.

I think RFK would endorse McGovern after New Hampshire, and more than a few Senate liberals would follow suit. I wonder if McGovern would go third party if he loses the nomination to Johnson.
 
@Bomster In thinking of an earlier post of yours, I'm wondering what you believe an RFK second term from 1981-1985 would look like. IMO, perhaps there'd be an earlier INF treaty in 1982/83. If the 1981 Airline Trafficker's Strike still occurs Kennedy would've handled it more fairly than Reagan. He would publicly acknowledge the AIDS crisis, but efforts to combat the disease would be limited by the social/cultural climate of the time. No Grenada invasion or Iran-Contra, which leaked in the Gipper's second term but had it's roots in his first.
 
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