WI: Revolutionary France under Barnave, Lafayette, or Brissot?

In Revolutionary France, there were three competing factions: The constitutional monarchists, called Feuillants; the hawkish republicans, known as the Girondists; and the radical Montagnards, which won out and succeeded in purging the other two in OTL.

The Feuillants called for a constitutional monarchy, and were led by a triumvirate of Antoine Barnave, Alexandre de Lamethe, and Adrien Duport. In the early days of the revolution, this faction was firmly in control. However, they opposed enfranchisement of the poor, and became unpopular in less than a year. After the King's flight to Varennes, they were branded royalists and ousted.

The Girondists were less of a solid faction and more a label for the less-radical republicans. They were led by Jacques-Pierre Brissot, who wanted to militarily export the revolution to the rest of Europe, but they insisted on keeping the King alive for negotiation purposes. They were firmly in power and controlled the entire revolutionary government after the King's arrest.

Robespierre and his Montagnards opposed war, believing (rightly) that a war would elevate the generals into positions of power, which would then lead to a reactionary coup. While Lafayette was away fighting the Austrian army, the Montagnards and Girondists mounted an insurrection and captured the King. Lafayette, on hearing the news, tried to persuade his men to return to Paris to fight the insurrection, but he had committed several political miscalculations and had lost all his support.

The Girondists were still in control at this time, but when they defended Louis XVI at his trial they became suspected of Royalism. After his execution, royalists revolted in Western France and the monarchs of Europe united against the Republic. The Montagnards capitalized on the resulting atmosphere of fear and paranoia by accusing the Girondists of treason, purging and executing most of them.

My question is, what would Revolutionary France look like if:

1) The Feuillants managed to reign in the radicals, and properly instituted the Constitution of 1791 with Barnave at the head under the nominal authority of the King?

2) Lafayette had not alienated his supporters, and managed to launch a counter-coup in 1792?

3) The Girondists had kept control and purged Robespierre in 1793 instead of the other way around?
 
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Lafayette would not support a republic. He actually made the short lived constitutional monarchy with the aid of Feuillants. The reason it didn't survive is Louis ran. When Louis attempted to run to Austria he alienated the nation and screwed Lafayette so bad. Had Louis stayed you would see Lafayette remain a powerful figure in French politics and the rise of Napoleon, the French Revolutionary Wars, the Napoleonic Wars, and the Louisiana Purchase butterflied away.
 
Lafayette would not support a republic. He actually made the short lived constitutional monarchy with the aid of Feuillants. The reason it didn't survive is Louis ran. When Louis attempted to run to Austria he alienated the nation and screwed Lafayette so bad. Had Louis stayed you would see Lafayette remain a powerful figure in French politics and the rise of Napoleon, the French Revolutionary Wars, the Napoleonic Wars, and the Louisiana Purchase butterflied away.

Right, yes, changed the title to "Revolutionary France" instead of "French First Republic."
 
My question is, what would Revolutionary France look like if:

1) The Feuillants managed to reign in the radicals, and properly instituted the Constitution of 1791 with Barnave at the head under the nominal authority of the King?

The situation remain shaky, and any mistake will lead to a surge of radicalism, as IOTL. This prevents the flight of the king, which can be his saving grace. The consitutional monarchy can survive, but it would need a lot of good fortune.


2) Lafayette had not alienated his supporters, and managed to launch a counter-coup in 1792?

Civil war, which goes very ugly. Other than the scenario above, the flight to Varennes has already taken place. This has given the radical unprecedented legitimacy. With France descending into bloddy strife against itself, foreign powers will likely invade.


3) The Girondists had kept control and purged Robespierre in 1793 instead of the other way around?

I'm assuming this is after January, and the king has already been executed...? I think it's a little late to save the discredited Girondins, really. But if they do manage to come out on top: all the reasons for foreign powers to attack France are already in place, and the Girondins are war hawks themselves, so France is still going to have to fight a lot of enemies. On the plus side: a lot of capable people likely don't get killed by their own government, which is good for France. Sane people like Condorcet might get a big role in forming the French government apparatus, which is good in the long term. It'll be more stable. Even if a general takes over (which is likely), the Empire will likely be prevented. You'll get an imperial presidency instead.


How any of these scenarios ultimately play out is impossible to tell. Could go in a lot of directions.

Anyway, in my own TL, the POD is further back, leading to an earlier revolution, which allowed me some leeway in deciding how things played out. I went with a French Republic where Lafayette, Mireabeau, Condorcet, Sieyes and Philippe d'Orléans form a government when constitutional monarchy is rejected by the more conservative monarch (not the same Louis XVI as IOTL). Brissot and other war hawks also have major influence. This does not fit into your PODs, of course, but it gave me reason to think about what an alt-Revolutionary France might look like.

Ultimate conclusion: less murderous towards its own people, likely all the more stable for it, but still unacceptable to foreign powers, wether they execute the king or not, and also probably very hawkish in its foreign policy.
 
Well, can't blame him though. Especially when there's a possibility of a radical Republican who could "accidentally" kill him.

So many times the mobs got unruly and threatened the King's life. Then Lafayette would get up give them a speech and they'd quiet down. All in all I blame Louis for everything.
 
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