WI: Reversed immigration to Britain and Germany after 2004

When the EU was extended to include ten new central and Southern European member states, Germany and Austria proposed a ten-year interim period, which made it difficult for workers from these states to get work permits there. Other older EU states didn't, with the UK soon becoming the prime destination for workers from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia et al. In 2015, it was mainly Germany, Austria and Sweden who took in new migrants and refugees from the war-torn regions of the Middle East and North Africa.

So let's say all this happened the other way around: Most of the CEE workers go to Germany and Austria after 2004, leading to an influx of many workers. Then later in 2014/15, Britain decides to open its doors for war refugees from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, etc. and lets in between 800.000 and 1 million newcomers. What effects would this have on the rise of right-wing populist parties in both countries, Brexit and the European Union?
 
Germany would have been in many ways a much more natural destination for these immigrants than the United Kingdom, given that for at least a century Germany had been the major European destination for Polish (and perhaps other EU-8) immigrants. If the United Kingdom had chosen to keep its labour market closed while Germany had decided to open it, or even if the United Kingdom had kept its labour market open, Germany would have gotten a disproportionate share of these post-2004 migrants.

I have also suggested that this, whether Germany opened its labour market as well as the United Kingdom, might have been enough to avert Brexit.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-2004-would-brexit-have-been-possible.387809/

All this said, I do not see the second part of this proposal--Britain welcoming Middle Eastern refugees--being particularly likely, alas. A Germany that had--one hopes--managed to handle a new wave of central European immigration well would be much more likely to welcome significant numbers of refugees than a United Kingdom that had opted out of this entirely.
 
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