WI: Reverse World War Two with a "Soviet" Germany, and a "Nazi" Russia

Deleted member 97083

In a scenario like the OTL interwar period and WW2, but reversed from reality, assume that:
  • After WW1, Germany fell to a communist revolution (possibly the Spartacists, possibly someone else), which first established a socialist/state capitalist union, which was slowly purged and taken over by a totalitarian figure who established a cult of personality and took away democracy, without using racial rhetoric. Basically, the German Empire becomes the Soviet Union.
  • After WW1, Russia lost land, had a failed communist revolution which was brutally suppressed, blamed territorial losses on ethnic minorities (such as Ukrainians, Kazakhs, and Germans) within the Russian Empire; sought to expand Russian "living space" west into Poland, the Baltic states, and Germany; and established a cult of personality and took away democracy while using racial rhetoric. Basically, the Russian Empire becomes Nazi Germany.
Furthermore, the foreign policy actions of Germany and Russia are exactly reversed, while the domestic policy is analogous:
  • Soviet Germany, which tried and failed to establish communism in Poland 1919-1921, later tries to "spread the world revolution by liberating German proletariat oppressed by the Austrian bourgeois", and creates an allied communist puppet state in Czechoslovakia, without annexing Bohemia or Moravia. Slovakia still becomes a puppet state, but is communist.
  • Fascist Russia enacts a crash-industrialization using nationalized corporations, and enacts a reign of terror against left-wing, far-left, as well as right-wing but non-fascist factions. No collectivization happens.
  • Russia proposes a non-aggression pact with Germany, splitting the Baltic states between German and Russian spheres, but "Nazi Russia" secretly plans to colonize Germany, while "Soviet Germany" secretly plans to bring communism to Russia. Nonetheless, the pact resolves some serious trade deficits for both nations.
Then "Soviet Germany" invades Poland, with "Nazi Russia" following right after.

Which one do the Allies side with? And how would reverse-WW2 develop from there?
 
Mussolini sides with Russia for ideological reasons.

France and England don't have a reason to get between the Russians and Germans unless attacked. France and Germany are historic enemies (two major wars in the previous 70 years), and Communist Germany still harbors resentment toward France for the harsh terms of Versailles, so there's a good chance Germany attacks France. That makes the coalitions mostly the same as IOTL. Nazi Russia's racial ideology wasn't particularly offensive to the Allied countries in 1940.
 

Deleted member 97083

Mussolini sides with Russia for ideological reasons.

France and England don't have a reason to get between the Russians and Germans unless attacked. France and Germany are historic enemies (two major wars in the previous 70 years), and Communist Germany still harbors resentment toward France for the harsh terms of Versailles, so there's a good chance Germany attacks France. That makes the coalitions mostly the same as IOTL. Nazi Russia's racial ideology wasn't particularly offensive to the Allied countries in 1940.
So would France and Britain basically leave Poland to die between a Soviet Germany and Nazi Russia? Considering ATL communist Germany had expanded into Austria and Czechoslovakia, why wouldn't it be equally alarming as the Nazi invasion of Poland?

(I assume that the invasion could occur at around the same time; since even though a communist Germany wouldn't want to annex Poland, they would certainly want to replace the government with a communist puppet state, so they won't be happy with just Danzig).
 
It would be alarming, but if both countries attacked Poland in short succession, there's no clear villain.

Also, the invasion of Poland IOTL resulted in the Phoney War where France and England declared war on Germany but didn't take Amy significant action to help Poland. I'm assuming that switching the ideologies wouldn't change that. The Allies wouldn't be involved in earnest until Germany moved west.

The real difference would be in the postwar era. Do we still have a Cold War? Is communism discredited due to its association with the defeated Germany, or does it take less of a reputational hit with the Holocaust either averted or undiscovered (due to it occurring in Nazi Russia which was on the winning side)? Is Nazi Russia as eager as Soviet Russia to export its ideology, and is a pre civil rights era US as alarmed by that ideology as it was by communism?

Could be a very interesting discussion once TTL gets to the 1950s.
 

MERRICA

Banned
Well the Fascism in Russia will almost certainly be a variant of Clerical Fascism. But I don't see them going after religious or ethnic minorities excluding the Jews as they aren't stupid and will do as the Russian Empire did, leave them alone unless they're in revolt.
 

Deleted member 97083

It would be alarming, but if both countries attacked Poland in short succession, there's no clear villain.
Well, by "right after", I meant that the Russians wait until the Germans are clearly winning to invade Poland, like OTL. So there's time for France and Britain to declare war on Germany alone.

Even if Germany and Russia attacked Poland at the same time in OTL, or 1-2 days away from each other, I still think the Allies might declare war only on Germany, due to the strategic interest of a potential war between Germany and Russia.

They did plan Operation Pike, but that never came to pass. Although communist Germany and fascist Russia might change that.

The real difference would be in the postwar era. Do we still have a Cold War? Is communism discredited due to its association with the defeated Germany, or does it take less of a reputational hit with the Holocaust either averted or undiscovered (due to it occurring in Nazi Russia which was on the winning side)? Is Nazi Russia as eager as Soviet Russia to export its ideology, and is a pre civil rights era US as alarmed by that ideology as it was by communism?

Could be a very interesting discussion once TTL gets to the 1950s.
Remember that in addition to the Holocaust of Jews and others, the Nazi Germans planned Generalplan Ost, and tried to enslave and exterminate the Russians, Poles, and other Slavs (and started to during WW2 with 3 million Slavs being killed in the Holocaust and 3.0 to 5.5 million Ostarbeiters being imported as forced laborers from the conquered parts of the Soviet Union to work in industry).

If there had been a Nazi Russia instead of Germany, it seems in the realm of plausibility that they would try to do the reverse, by colonizing Germany with Russians and deporting the Germans to Siberia.

1930s/40s Russia, unlike Germany, was seeing fairly frequent famines, so even if they don't inherit the siege mentality of the Baltic Germans or a radicalized version of "Drang nach Osten", an alternate fascist Russia might have similar aims as Nazi Germany in terms of acquiring "living space". And even the non-fascist Soviet Union did the Holodomor, and deported many Balts, Poles, Ukrainians, and Volga Germans to Siberia and Kazakhstan.

Would the Western Allies stand against Nazi-level atrocities by a stronger power than Germany? At least for PR reasons I think they would, but there's also less of an economic threat compared to communism, so they may turn a blind eye to avoid extending the war. However, by 1945, the Allies do have nukes, so something like Operation Unthinkable is within the realm of plausibility.

Do we still have a Cold War?
Probably, since after winning the war, the fascist Russians will not be willing to start a war with the West until they have nuclear weapons of their own.

Is communism discredited due to its association with the defeated Germany, or does it take less of a reputational hit with the Holocaust either averted or undiscovered (due to it occurring in Nazi Russia which was on the winning side)?
Communism probably becomes less of a threat to the West, since the only communist state would be the People's Republic of China, if they survive. Any Red Scares will be minimal.

Is Nazi Russia as eager as Soviet Russia to export its ideology, and is a pre civil rights era US as alarmed by that ideology as it was by communism?
They might do less exporting of their own ideology, but find puppet states abroad regardless of ideology, though trending totalitarian.
 
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