WI: Reverse Schlieffen Plan

I think, looking again at the passage I quoted, what was proposed (and agreed ITTL?) was that the German Armies would mobilise as planned then shift towards the East. The move Eastward would be as formed Armies and via the rail network. If - and I stress if - the French attack soon enough, then the move (not mobilisation) can be cancelled and the Germans can march/rail to meet the French. There would be delays but not necessarily a breakdown in order amongst the Germans. Something akin to the Austrian bungled deployment of their 2nd Army in the opening stages of the Serbian Campaign, but dealt with better due to superior German organisation.

There only needs to be sufficient delay to allow the French to strike first.

As far as a POD goes I really like it for no other reason than it is tight into the events and needs no deeper changes that incur the wrath of butterflies. It is plausible and as far as I can tell grounded in actual events as they unfolded. General Hermann von Staab, head of the German railway division, argued that he could wheel the armies East if ordered. Here I think you take away 1st, 2nd and 3rd from the right-wing, leave the 4th in position to defend against the now obvious French rumblings to use Belgium. You might get the Corps up on the coast pulled in to strengthen 4th Army since it will be assumed the BEF is not mounting an invasion. As the troops deploy East and the war gets foggy the French might go for it as they assume Belgium will yield. Germany and Britain exchange notes and protest as France strikes. Damned un-sportsman like.
 

trajen777

Banned
As far as a POD goes I really like it for no other reason than it is tight into the events and needs no deeper changes that incur the wrath of butterflies. It is plausible and as far as I can tell grounded in actual events as they unfolded. General Hermann von Staab, head of the German railway division, argued that he could wheel the armies East if ordered. Here I think you take away 1st, 2nd and 3rd from the right-wing, leave the 4th in position to defend against the now obvious French rumblings to use Belgium. You might get the Corps up on the coast pulled in to strengthen 4th Army since it will be assumed the BEF is not mounting an invasion. As the troops deploy East and the war gets foggy the French might go for it as they assume Belgium will yield. Germany and Britain exchange notes and protest as France strikes. Damned un-sportsman like.
Yes you are right Staab agreed with this. However the French attack in Belgium would have been about the time where only 1 - 2 armies were in transit or loading. So by the time of the French invasion you would have 5- 6 German armies in the West
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Wilhelm somehow gets his way and Moltke the Younger dies of a massive heart attack whilst struggling to change the Kaiser's mind and simultaneously reorder the mobilisations. The delay resultant from the attempted change to mobilisation gives the French the chance to strike first, having rejected the British neutrality offer.

Something like that?
I do like this: Moltke was pretty old by this point, and ended up having a nervous breakdown pretty early on in the war that lead to a collapse of his health.
If you wanna get "rid" of Moltke :
don't take a heart attack - take a stroke. Would fit "better" his medical record.

He had a few minor strokes prior, the last in may/june 1914. His wife assumed another one, when he returned to home from the meeting of mobilization on the evening of 1st August (just when he had his "quarrel" with the Kaiser about the redeployment to the east). Behavioral changes later on also indicateted, that he had some more minor strokes under stress, that altered his overall "attitude".

He finally died 1916 on a stroke, during the state memorial ceremony for Colmar von der Goltz.
 
From the wiki page on the July Crisis:

"On 1 August 1914, a British offer to guarantee French neutrality was sent out and promptly accepted by Wilhelm. At 4:23 p.m. a telegram from the German Ambassador to Britain arrived with a planned British proposal to guarantee the neutrality of France and thus limit the war to one fought in the east. Wilhelm then ordered German forces to strike against Russia alone, leading to fierce protests from Moltke that it was not technically possible for Germany to do so as the bulk of the German forces were already advancing into Luxembourg and Belgium. Wilhelm immediately accepted the proposal by telegrams at the ambassadorial and royal levels." In keeping with this decision, Wilhelm II demanded his generals shift the mobilization to the east. Moltke, German Chief of General Staff, told him that this was impossible, to which the Kaiser replied "Your uncle would have given me a different answer!" Instead, it was decided to mobilize as planned and cancel the planned invasion of Luxembourg. Once mobilization was complete, the army would redeploy to the east. In response to Wilhelm's order, a dejected Moltke complained that "Now, it only remains for Russia to back out, too." Moltke then proceeded to persuade the Emperor to continue the advance for "technical reasons". [emphasis added for clarity]

Wilhelm somehow gets his way and Moltke the Younger dies of a massive heart attack whilst struggling to change the Kaiser's mind and simultaneously reorder the mobilisations. The delay resultant from the attempted change to mobilisation gives the French the chance to strike first, having rejected the British neutrality offer.

Something like that?

This is a gross distortion of what happened between 10:00 and 11:00 p.m. First, the Germans get a message from their Ambassador in London that Britain and France would be neutral. The Kaiser leaps at this opportunity and orders the switch to the East. Moltke points out that it would be impossible to switch them in the middle of mobilization. The schedule couldn't just be made up. Falkenhayn comes up with the idea to mobilize West and then turn East if the peace feeler works.

The Germans then send a note accepting the British offer to leave France neutral if Britain guarantees it with all her land and sea forces. The British wire back that there was no such offer The Kaiser tells Moltke to go ahead as planned

There's no "The Kaiser somehow gets his way" He is the monarch and supreme commander of the German Army He is obeyed. The Germans are just not suicidal enough to attack East with the French mobilized in their rear.

The idea of moving into Belgium first was considered by the French military. The French government overrode it and there's little reason to change their minds. The only way would be if Britain already declared neutrality and nobody cared about them anymore
 

trajen777

Banned
If you wanna get "rid" of Moltke :
don't take a heart attack - take a stroke. Would fit "better" his medical record.

He had a few minor strokes prior, the last in may/june 1914. His wife assumed another one, when he returned to home from the meeting of mobilization on the evening of 1st August (just when he had his "quarrel" with the Kaiser about the redeployment to the east). Behavioral changes later on also indicateted, that he had some more minor strokes under stress, that altered his overall "attitude".

He finally died 1916 on a stroke, during the state memorial ceremony for Colmar von der Goltz.
Good idea with the Stroke. If the Kaiser had had stood up or brought in the logistics team you would have had a more "yes we can do this " response,. And the transference east of the forces. I still think only a part of the forces would have been transferred pre the French invasion. The way the German army was structured (more about fire power and plummeting fire then total troops -- ie if they were focused on troops they could have vastly outnumber the French forces just based upon population) they could have been outnumbered (if they had transferred 4 armies east) and still produced more firepower (esp in an angled decent vs the French 75 with a flat projection) then the French.
 

Deleted member 94680

If you wanna get "rid" of Moltke :
don't take a heart attack - take a stroke. Would fit "better" his medical record.

Quite right about it being a better fit for his medical record. I considered a "panic attack" as opposed to a heart attack, removing him from the chain of command at the crucial time. It's just I believe it would leave him able to return, so plumped for a heart attack. He had no shortage of opponents in the OHL by the time of the July Crisis and an argument with the Supreme Warlord at the right (wrong?) time would probably be enough to see him removed. Once the changed deployments start going ahead without him, when he's returned from convalescence (if he isn't 'retired' before that) then he would probably find himself as a powerless figurehead anyway. It just moves up his removal by a few months, I suppose.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
@MichaelWest and @trajen777

About Hermann von Staabs and his "alternate" plans :
Different to what Moltke claimed/offered the Kaiser - deployment as planned and THEN redeployment east - his approach was different :
  • hold (western) troops in garrision - beside the eastern border Corps (I., XX., XVII., II., V., VI.), which would "mobilize" as OTL, but moved a bit different ;-)
  • redo (some) of the planning in the west
Well, he "used" some war-time experience/hindsight in organizing the armies in "Heeresgruppen" (army-groups)(therefore the "grouping" of armies below) and an army-detachment ("Armee-Abteilung").
However, IMO this doesn't effect his claim about the redeployment of the actual troops, he claimed to be managable until the 15th August - IF the decision of the 1st August evening would be kept and work on the redeployment would ahve been started 1st August late evening (i.e. with telling the Corps to stay in their garrisons).

Well, here ARE these plans (Corps deployed as IOLT and therefore not needing any or much of "replanning" are in italics)

Staabs West A.png
Corps assignments West :
(v.Staabs "plans" are the pointed lines)
  • 7.Army : VII.Corps & 9. Cav.Div. (guarding the belgian border), IX.Corps & XI.Corps (west of Cologne), VII.Res.Corps, IX.Res.Corps, XVIII.Res.Corps (kepst in garrisons)
  • 5. Army : VIII.Corps, XIII.Corps, XVI.Corps, VIII.Res.Corps ; 3.Cav.Div, 6.Cav.Div.
  • 6. Army : XXI.Corps, I.bav.Corps, II.bav.Corps, III.bav.Corps ; 7.Cav.Div.
  • Army-Detachment : XIV.Corps, XV.Corps
  • XIV.Res.Corps, I.bav.Res.Corps and 6 1/2 mobile replacemnet divisions as reserves for the west kept in garrisions

Staabs Ost OTL.png
Corps assignments East :
  • 1. Army : Guards Corps, Guards Res.Corps, I.Corps, II.Corps ; Guards Cav.Div. and 2.Cav.Div.
  • 8. Army : X.Corps, XVII.Corps, I.Res.Corps, X.Res.Corps, 3.Res.Div. ; 1.Cav.Div.
  • 2. Army : III.Corps, IV.Corps, XX.Corps, II.Res.Corps, IV.Res.Corps ; 4.Cav.Div.
  • 3. Army : XII.Corps, XIX.Corps, V.Res.Corps, XII.Res.Corps
  • 4. Army : V.Corps, VI.Corps, VI.Res.Corps, Landwehr Corps (Woyrsch) ; 5.Cav.Div., 8.Cav.Div.
  • other Landwehr formations more or less as IOTL
  • the fortress-troops of the russian provinces and the Posznan-province as reserves (as IOTL)
 

NoMommsen

Donor
... If the Kaiser had had stood up or brought in the logistics team you would have had a more "yes we can do this " response, ...
Actually, according to the recollection of Tirpitz ... or Falkenhayn (?) IIRC he did that, asking then Colonel Tappen, head of the organizational department of the Great General Staff, who accompanied Moltke.

And Tappen gave IOTL the answer : "yes, we can".
 

trajen777

Banned
Actually, according to the recollection of Tirpitz ... or Falkenhayn (?) IIRC he did that, asking then Colonel Tappen, head of the organizational department of the Great General Staff, who accompanied Moltke.

And Tappen gave IOTL the answer : "yes, we can".
Thanks -- i had remebered reading about the meeting - did not remember the Trappen comment. So if he had "see Moltke we can do this and you will do this"
 

NoMommsen

Donor
This is a gross distortion of what happened between 10:00 and 11:00 p.m. First, the Germans get a message from their Ambassador in London that Britain and France would be neutral. The Kaiser leaps at this opportunity and orders the switch to the East. Moltke points out that it would be impossible to switch them in the middle of mobilization. The schedule couldn't just be made up. Falkenhayn comes up with the idea to mobilize West and then turn East if the peace feeler works.

The Germans then send a note accepting the British offer to leave France neutral if Britain guarantees it with all her land and sea forces. The British wire back that there was no such offer The Kaiser tells Moltke to go ahead as planned

There's no "The Kaiser somehow gets his way" He is the monarch and supreme commander of the German Army He is obeyed. The Germans are just not suicidal enough to attack East with the French mobilized in their rear.
Wrong, esp. at the timing.

17:15 - 17:20
The first telegram of Lichnowsky, despatched from London at 11:45, arrives at the meeting and the Kaiser, offering british neutrality as well as french "inactivity", if Germany does not attack France.

At this point Moltke and Falkenhayn have left the palace after the signing of the mobilization order.
Everybody present, Kaiser, chancellor, Tirpitz, v.Müller, v.Lyncker, v.Plessen are almost wetting themself for joy and relief and Moltke and Falkenhayn are called back - urgently.​

17:30 - 17:40
Moltke and Falkenhayn are back at the meeting in the palace, the Kaiser orders the "Turn to the East", arguing, severe arguing starts starts ("Your uncle would have told me different.", "Then use other railways.", etc.)

Somewhere around here, Falkenhayn comes up with the idea of finishing the western deployment with the following redeployment to the east
18:00 - 18:15
The "answers" to the first Lichnowsky-telegram are formulated, the "diplomatical" as well as the "royal" (Willy to Georgie)
18:15 - 18:20
The second Lichnowsky telegram arrives at the meeting, despatched from London at 14:10, offering the possibility of some "... proposals for Englands neutrality even in the case, that we have war with Russia as with France."

Champagne for everybody ! (happened IOTL)​

18:20-18:40
Kaiser orders by telephone and telegram the withdrawel of the troops from Luxembourg and the stop of any mobilization movements.
19:00
2nd "Balcony"-speach of Willy​
19:04
The "royal" telegram to Georgie is sent from the palace' own telegraph-office.
And only then comes the time you refer to. Around 22:00 - 22:30 gets the Kaiser "Georgies" answer, that there must have been a "misunderstanding" while around the same time (22:02, despatched from London 17:47) Lichnowskys account of his talk with Grey (aka no offer of neutrality) reaches the Wilhelm-street (foreign office).

And between 22:30 - 23:00 Moltke get finally his go IOTL.

The Kaiser "got his way" - at least for some hours, during which Moltke conducted essentially mutiny in disobeying his Kaisers order, moving the troops eats, and doing ... nothing but sitting idle.
Not out of some "strategic", rational thinking, but out of personal dispair/distress/exasperation of Moltke, who then left the Great General Staff, telling Tappen "to do what you want" with the Kaisers orders. And Tappen as well as the GGS did also ... nothing out of complete helplessness
 

NoMommsen

Donor
One note about a possible "redeployment" east and especially the difference between v.Staabs claims and what we "know" of the last actual eastern deployment plans for 1912/1913, regarding the railways capacity for "only" 3 armies and the necessity to move large parts of then 2nd army by foot.

Keep in mind, that these plans were actually made up in 1911. The railways administration and its building department didn't sit idle in these 3 years.
 
Wrong, esp. at the timing.

17:15 - 17:20
The first telegram of Lichnowsky, despatched from London at 11:45, arrives at the meeting and the Kaiser, offering british neutrality as well as french "inactivity", if Germany does not attack France.

At this point Moltke and Falkenhayn have left the palace after the signing of the mobilization order.
Everybody present, Kaiser, chancellor, Tirpitz, v.Müller, v.Lyncker, v.Plessen are almost wetting themself for joy and relief and Moltke and Falkenhayn are called back - urgently.​

17:30 - 17:40
Moltke and Falkenhayn are back at the meeting in the palace, the Kaiser orders the "Turn to the East", arguing, severe arguing starts starts ("Your uncle would have told me different.", "Then use other railways.", etc.)

Somewhere around here, Falkenhayn comes up with the idea of finishing the western deployment with the following redeployment to the east​
Ok so let's say Moltke has a stroke during the argument; the Kaiser puts out a call for a doctor, then appoints Falkenhayn in his place. When Falkenhayn proposes his redeployment plan, the Kaiser orders him to implement it.​
 

NoMommsen

Donor
@highwayhoss
Now it will be interesting, how "honest" Falkenhayn is with his obeydience to the Kaisers wish :
does he 'really' aims at deploying east or is it only lipservice in 'hope' that - somehow - the western war will still occur.

If he truly aims at an eastern deployment, then at least the reserve corps, V., VI. and Guards Corps woudn't be deployed westwards, as they were already all "late" on the railways timetables (entrainment planned at M + 5-8). Probably also II.Corps due to "distance".

However, the french will still see an awful lot of troop-movements near the borders with the advanced parts of II.Corps, IV.Corps, VII.Corps, IX.Corps, X.Corps, ... uh, see yourself :
Eintreffübersicht Westheer b.jpg (this is the planned "arrival" schedule of 1914)
but they (the french) would not know, that these are "less" than planned (afaik there intelligence about the german troops wasn't ... exceptional :p, they IOTL also only saw "many troopmovement", but lacked mostly the knowledge, what troops actually they faced).

Luxembourg would ofc, as ordered by the Kaiser, stay unoccupied (for the time being).

Would/could the arrival of the german troops AT the borders (of Belgium, without crossing) around 3rd/4th August be enough to "trigger" ITTL a french attack into Belgium on the ???? August ?
 
@highwayhoss
Now it will be interesting, how "honest" Falkenhayn is with his obeydience to the Kaisers wish :
does he 'really' aims at deploying east or is it only lipservice in 'hope' that - somehow - the western war will still occur.
Probably at least a "good faith" effort and move some troops; after all, many German officers were worried at how weak the forces facing Russia were.


However, the french will still see an awful lot of troop-movements near the borders with the advanced parts of II.Corps, IV.Corps, VII.Corps, IX.Corps, X.Corps, ... uh, see yourself :
View attachment 342497 (this is the planned "arrival" schedule of 1914)
but they (the french) would not know, that these are "less" than planned (afaik there intelligence about the german troops wasn't ... exceptional :p, they IOTL also only saw "many troopmovement", but lacked mostly the knowledge, what troops actually they faced).

Luxembourg would ofc, as ordered by the Kaiser, stay unoccupied (for the time being).

Would/could the arrival of the german troops AT the borders (of Belgium, without crossing) around 3rd/4th August be enough to "trigger" ITTL a french attack into Belgium on the ???? August ?
Considering Plan XVII was an all out offensive, I could easily the French, realizing the Germans were not moving into Luxembourg, deciding the seize the country first. Some accounts of Plan XVII mention an advance through the Ardennes Forest into Germany. Much depends on how the 4th and 5th Army commanders decide to react to the situation; the faulty intelligence you mention could cause the two Armies to advance. The rest of Plan XVII will be carried out as planned.
 
Wrong, esp. at the timing.

17:15 - 17:20
The first telegram of Lichnowsky, despatched from London at 11:45, arrives at the meeting and the Kaiser, offering british neutrality as well as french "inactivity", if Germany does not attack France.

At this point Moltke and Falkenhayn have left the palace after the signing of the mobilization order.
Everybody present, Kaiser, chancellor, Tirpitz, v.Müller, v.Lyncker, v.Plessen are almost wetting themself for joy and relief and Moltke and Falkenhayn are called back - urgently.​

17:30 - 17:40
Moltke and Falkenhayn are back at the meeting in the palace, the Kaiser orders the "Turn to the East", arguing, severe arguing starts starts ("Your uncle would have told me different.", "Then use other railways.", etc.)

Somewhere around here, Falkenhayn comes up with the idea of finishing the western deployment with the following redeployment to the east
18:00 - 18:15
The "answers" to the first Lichnowsky-telegram are formulated, the "diplomatical" as well as the "royal" (Willy to Georgie)
18:15 - 18:20
The second Lichnowsky telegram arrives at the meeting, despatched from London at 14:10, offering the possibility of some "... proposals for Englands neutrality even in the case, that we have war with Russia as with France."

Champagne for everybody ! (happened IOTL)​

18:20-18:40
Kaiser orders by telephone and telegram the withdrawel of the troops from Luxembourg and the stop of any mobilization movements.
19:00
2nd "Balcony"-speach of Willy​
19:04
The "royal" telegram to Georgie is sent from the palace' own telegraph-office.
And only then comes the time you refer to. Around 22:00 - 22:30 gets the Kaiser "Georgies" answer, that there must have been a "misunderstanding" while around the same time (22:02, despatched from London 17:47) Lichnowskys account of his talk with Grey (aka no offer of neutrality) reaches the Wilhelm-street (foreign office).

And between 22:30 - 23:00 Moltke get finally his go IOTL.

The Kaiser "got his way" - at least for some hours, during which Moltke conducted essentially mutiny in disobeying his Kaisers order, moving the troops eats, and doing ... nothing but sitting idle.
Not out of some "strategic", rational thinking, but out of personal dispair/distress/exasperation of Moltke, who then left the Great General Staff, telling Tappen "to do what you want" with the Kaisers orders. And Tappen as well as the GGS did also ... nothing out of complete helplessness

AN hour one or the other doesn't change anything. Moltke pouts nut the Kaiser's orders are carried out- the assulat on Luxemburg is delayed.

Ok so let's say Moltke has a stroke during the argument; the Kaiser puts out a call for a doctor, then appoints Falkenhayn in his place. When Falkenhayn proposes his redeployment plan, the Kaiser orders him to implement it.​


But Falkenhayn's plan is implemented OTL. During the discussions, he takes Moltke out of the room and agrees that moving the army East is nonsense. He also points out that the Kaiser is right to avoid a two front war if possible. Its falkenhayn's idea to mobilize West and if the British peace feelers work out, then go East Nobody is going East without the French neutral

As Mackus points out though- for the French to violate Belgium, there has to be a massive POD in Anglo-French relations. The French military request to move into Belgium is rejected because of i Britain. Some huge change has to take place so that the French don't care what the British think
 

NoMommsen

Donor
AN hour one or the other doesn't change anything. Moltke pouts nut the Kaiser's orders are carried out- the assulat on Luxemburg is delayed.
...as well as the WHOLE deployment to west.

And my post meant mainly to counter your wrong statement about a "distorsion". The "distorsion" of the actual events happens to be in your perception.
But Falkenhayn's plan is implemented OTL.
No, the western deployment was NOT carried further after the Kaisers order but PUT ON HOLD, much to the consternation of the Corps commanders ("Der Weltkrieg 1914-1918" volume 1, Reichsarchiv 1925)
During the discussions, he takes Moltke out of the room ...
No, he tok him "aside". The "Stern-Saal" (Stars-Hall),
Sternsaal.jpg
where the meeting took place was rather large

... and agrees that moving the army East is nonsense.
... to Moltkes ears.
He also points out that the Kaiser is right to avoid a two front war if possible.
... to the Kaisers "ears".

Its falkenhayn's idea to mobilize West and if the British peace feelers work out, then go East Nobody is going East without the French neutral
As it was already agreed upon earlier by the Kaiser, Bethmann-Hollweg, Jagow, Tirpitz.

As Mackus points out though- for the French to violate Belgium, there has to be a massive POD in Anglo-French relations. The French military request to move into Belgium is rejected because of i Britain. Some huge change has to take place so that the French don't care what the British think
Have you read the OP ?
Given Joffres wishes to attack trough Belgium, which IOTL were restrained by the politicians, ITTL the politicians are "more agressive" and would ITTL most likely give Joffre the green light. Maybe "asking" him to eventually construct/manufacture some at least fig-leaf excuse for the french publicity (ITTL these politicians assume the Brits would stay "pragmatic" and accept the belgian violation ... this IS the POD).
 
<snip> And of course, Ireland: it's probably in flames by now, maybe enough to keep Britain from entering the war.
Probably not quite yet, though I can see a period of clashes, occasional killings, theft and importation of arms for the various private armies (IVF, UVF, ICA) and mutinous rumblings.

Of course this is an absolutely perfect opportunity for some external meddling. Load a suitable neutral ship with weapons and some revolutionaries and sail it to Ireland.
What could possibly go wrong?
 
Wrt the UK the state-of-the-parties in Westminister in 1914 was.

Conservative bloc. 272
Conservative 235
Liberal Unionist 36
Independent Conservatives 1​

Liberal bloc. 272
Liberal party 272​

Irish Nationalist bloc. 84
IPP 74
All-for-Ireland 8
Independent nationalists 2​

Labour bloc. 42
Labour party 42​

Total 670 seats, 336 needed for a majority.
 
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