WI Reutemann had became president in 2003 instead of Kirchner?

WI the center (or center-right, if you prefer) Reutemann had accepted the offer of becoming the Justicialist candidate in the 2003 Argentinian presidential elections, had run as the official* P.J. candidate instead of the center-left Kirchner and had won the 2003 presidential elections?



*Or, at least, as one of the three different P.J. candidates.
 

maverick

Banned
I've often wondered about this one myself.

Personally, if Menem had won things would have gotten really "interesting", but Duhalde had three candidates before Kirchner: the orthodox Peronists Felipe Sola of Buenos Aires and De la Sota from Cordoba, and this man:

General politics:

-Carlos Reutemann, as a moderate right-winger, would not have entered into an alliance with Venezuela, but we would enjoy cordial relations with the USA, Europe, Colombia, Chile and Brazil.

-His record as Governor suggest that he would have used the Economic Emergency Laws the same way as Kirchner, and centralized power way too much. He's a Peronist Caudillo after all.

-He continues with Lavagna's and Duhalde's policies, before turning Fiscal Conservative. By attracting investors and not having crazy projects like the Caracas-Buenos Aires oil pipe or the Tren Bala, he might get actual money and will not alienate the Paris Club or the FMI.

-He doesn't attack the Church and the army.

-He wins a solid majority and unifies the party by 2005-2007.

-He is reelected in 2007.

-I don't know whom his vice president might be, probably one of Duhalde's men. Let's say Felipe Sola.

-There's still corruption scandals, but no suitcases from Venezuela, no Tren Bala, no Luis D'elia, no lockdown nor war with the agro-industrial complex, no nationalizations or nationalizations to a minimum. No attempts to take all that money from the agro producers of the retirement pensions.

-Doesn't vindicate the left wing terrorist groups, but might still have Cafiero and the other one in his cabinet.

-The CGT might no split? not sure.

Opposition:

-A strong united PJ in 2007 forces the opposition to a different direction.

-Julio Cobos never rises to prominence. Same for Alfredo deAngeli

-Macri's options are more limited. Perhaps an alliance with Carrio? a coalition between the UCR and the CC might happen earlier, perhaps with Macri as the third wheel?

Other:

The economy is overall better since the President doesn't support Chavez, attack the USA and the business classes nor is crazy...nor does he hate capitalism.

A Third term in 2011? Hard to say, Lula and Uribe don't seem to be going for it...and he's not the Chavez type...either his VP Felipe Sola or opposition leader Carrio replace him in 2011.
 
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If Reutemann decides to run the presidency in 2003 with Duhalde's backing instead of Kirchner, PJ party would be only composed of 2 candidates, Reutemann vs. Menem with Reutemann's landslide victory.

Reutemann's presidency + Lavagna as Economic minister would means into an Argentine economic miracle, friendly with the United States, investor-friendly Argentina, more funding from IMF.

The economic growth in Argentina under Reutemann could surpass to 10% GDP growth from 2003 to 2007, because of more foreign investment in all sectors in Argentina.

A stable and free market Argentina if Reutemann is the president instead of Kirchner.



What would happened to Nestor and Cristina Kirchner if Reutemann is the president of Argentina?
 
If Reutemann decides to run the presidency in 2003 with Duhalde's backing instead of Kirchner, PJ party would be only composed of 2 candidates, Reutemann vs. Menem with Reutemann's landslide victory.

Reutemann's presidency + Lavagna as Economic minister would means into an Argentine economic miracle, friendly with the United States, investor-friendly Argentina, more funding from IMF.

The economic growth in Argentina under Reutemann could surpass to 10% GDP growth from 2003 to 2007, because of more foreign investment in all sectors in Argentina.

A stable and free market Argentina if Reutemann is the president instead of Kirchner.



What would happened to Nestor and Cristina Kirchner if Reutemann is the president of Argentina?
My god, it's like you're perpetually wanking Argentina... Argentina didn't have the right conditions for any kind of economic miracle in 2003, the economy was and is too fragile still.
 
My god, it's like you're perpetually wanking Argentina... Argentina didn't have the right conditions for any kind of economic miracle in 2003, the economy was and is too fragile still.

Minifidel, while I agree with the first part of your statement (;)) I think the conditions existed in 2003 for an economic recovery. After all, the international context was extremely favorable: grain prices where up and rising, our currency was extremly competitive, and industries had a lot of unused capacity.

Our economy started recovering rapidly under Duhalde, and I don't see why it wouldn't had continued if Reutemann is elected instead of Kirchner. Maybe 10% is too much, but we did grew at 7 % or 8 % IIRC.

This is, of course, if Reutemann doesn't ruin things politically.
 
Minifidel, while I agree with the first part of your statement (;)) I think the conditions existed in 2003 for an economic recovery. After all, the international context was extremely favorable: grain prices where up and rising, our currency was extremly competitive, and industries had a lot of unused capacity.

Our economy started recovering rapidly under Duhalde, and I don't see why it wouldn't had continued if Reutemann is elected instead of Kirchner. Maybe 10% is too much, but we did grew at 7 % or 8 % IIRC.

This is, of course, if Reutemann doesn't ruin things politically.
An economic recovery was, I daresay, inevitable, since we'd hit rock-bottom and there was no way to go but up. But the Argentine economy has a huge amount of structural and deep-rooted problems that take years of intelligent and consistent management, something which has been damn near impossible for Argentina since the first coup.

As for Kirchner... the Kirchners own Santa Cruz.
 
The thing is, after the default, there weren't a lot of options to put state bonds in the market so probably any president would have to keep close ties to Venezuela.

Menem would loose the 2003 elections in either case, that didn't depend on who the other candidate was but on who Menem is. Of course, Reutemann would have "won" that election the same way as Kirchner: by getting the second place - not that he isn't used to the feeling :p (I had to say it).

I don't know much about Reutemann's performance as governor, but I think any other candidate would have a more rational approach to politics, so I agree a lot of things wouldn't happen: the fight with the Armed Forces, the Catholic Church and the rural businessmen. We will still be following an unilateral disarmament policy though.

I wonder how he would managed the inflation, subsidies for business and the poor and the relationship with the unions. The other thing, wasn't he the governor when there was a major flood in his province - and said flood had been forewarned months ago? He doesn't strike me as a man with foresight. But he would have continued Duhalde's economic policies and we might be in better shape nowadays. I don't think we can have achieved much higher growth rates, though, and I'm not sure about long term stability and predictability, which are needed for capital intensive investments.
 
Oh wait, this is Reutemann the former Santa Fe governor who lost the position in a traditional peronist stronghold to the socialists?

...I don't actually have anything to add, he would still be better than the K's, but we're comparing the shit we stepped on to the one we didn't.
 
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